湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究

利用1960—2005年湖北省76个地区气象灾害的灾情普查数据和逐日降水量观测资料,对湖北省旱涝灾害的时空分布特征及其致灾规律进行分析。结果表明:干旱灾害的频发区呈东西走向的带状分布,而洪涝灾害的发生频次和频发区面积均明显少于干旱;干旱和洪涝灾害年平均发生站次在1996年以后出现相反的变化趋势,干旱发生站次增加,而洪涝发生站次减少,且两种灾害均主要集中发生在夏季;1996—2001年湖北省部分地区连续出现严重干旱灾害,干旱的累积增强效应导致农业经济损失出现跳跃性增长并在2001年达到最大值;洪涝的致灾强度呈准周期的起伏振荡,农作物受洪涝影响面积最大、损失最多的年份集中在20世纪90年代,农作物受害面积与农业经济损失的决定系数为0.8;受害人口与直接经济损失具有较好的相关特征,且直接经济损失随受害人口增多而增加的速度加快,但近年来人口对洪涝灾害的抵御能力也显著提高;急转干旱和急转洪涝主要发生在鄂西北和鄂东南的夏季,农作物的脆弱度增加,农业经济损失随受害面积增大而增加的速度加快,但所造成的农业经济损失远小于仅发生干旱和洪涝时的数值。     

Evaluation of codified elastic design spectrum models for regions of low-to-moderate seismicity

Design spectrum (DS) model is typically specified in a seismic code of practice for structural design. In a region of low-to-moderate seismicity where seismic code does not exist, a DS model in a well established code of practice is usually adopted, while the suitability of such model has seldom been evaluated. In this article, the elastic DS models for reference (rock) site stipulated in six major codes of practice (AS1170.4–2007, EN1998-1:2004, GB50011–2010, IBC–2012, NBCC–2010 and NZS1170.5:2004) have been compared and scrutinized. Three cities of low-to-moderate seismicity, namely, Melbourne (Australia), Hong Kong (China) and Karlsruhe (Germany), have been selected for illustrative purposes. Particular emphasis has been put on the parameterization scheme for DS model. It is found that huge discrepancies (over 100%) exist among the models, especially at the long period range, due to differences in spectral shapes and the recommended corner periods, which would lead to undesirable effects on the use of the displacement-based seismic design approach. It is urged that the values of corner periods should be determined specifically and cautiously based on the regional seismicity pattern and local geological conditions.     

黑河流域大气资料尺度转换的对比分析

尺度转换是解决尺度差异问题的有效方法之一。尺度转换统计模式的可靠性和正确性如何,在很大程度上取决于建立统计模式时所用的实际气象资料的处理,尤其在下垫面分布极不均匀地区。本文研究了黑河流域这一复杂下垫面条件下的大气资料的尺度转换问题,对比分析了由NCEP再分析资料直接内插到较小尺度而得到的局地气候变化与由尺度转换统计模式,经过客观分析所得到的局地气候变化。结果表明,直接插值所得的细网格值只能用于对平坦地区的温、湿状况的描述,而对较高山区的区域特征描述不够;进行观测资料的客观分析可以更准确地反映黑河流域复杂下垫面背景下近地层大气要素场的变化。研究表明,客观分析过程是尺度转换过程的重要环节。     

Observed winds,turbulence, and dispersion in built-up downtown areas of Oklahoma City and Manhattan

Wind and tracer data from the Oklahoma City Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) and the Manhattan Madison Square Garden 2005 (MSG05) urban field experiments are being analyzed to aid in understanding air flow and dispersion near street-level in built-up downtown areas. The mean winds are separately calculated for groups of anemometers having similar exposures such as “near street level” and “on building top”. Several general results are found, such as the scalar wind speed at street level is about 1/3 of that at building top. Turbulent standard deviations of wind speed components and temperature, and vertical fluxes of momentum and sensible heat, are calculated from sonic anemometers near street level at 20 locations in JU2003 and five locations in MSG05, and from two rooftop locations in MSG05. The turbulence observations are consistent with observations in the literature at other cities, although the JU2003 and MSG05 data are unique in that many data are available near street level. For example, it is found that the local (i.e., at the measuring height) averages about 1.5 and the local averages about 0.25 in the two cities, where is the standard deviation of vertical velocity fluctuations, is the friction velocity, and u is the wind speed. The ratio of temperature fluctuations to temperature scale, , averages about −3 in both cities, consistent with similarity theory for slightly unstable conditions, where is the standard deviation of temperature fluctuations, and is the temperature scale. The calculated Obukhov length, L, is also consistent with slightly unstable conditions near street level, even at night during JU2003. The SF₆ tracer concentration observations from JU2003 are analyzed. Values of for the continuous releases are calculated for each release and arc distance, where is the 30-min average arc maximum concentration, Q is the continuous source emission rate, and u is the spatial-averaged wind speed in the downtown area. The basic characteristics of the JU2003 plot of averaged agree reasonably well with similar plots for other urban experiments in Salt Lake City and London (i.e., at . A is found to be about 3 during the day and about 10 during the night.     

玛纳斯河流域雷暴气候特征及防雷应用

选取玛纳斯河流域中上游和中下游4个气象站1970—2005年的雷暴气候资料进行统计分析,总结出玛纳斯河流域雷暴活动的气候特征,并根据其活动规律提出防御雷电灾害的几项事宜。     

Scaling of tropical rainfall as observed by TRMM precipitation radar

We used a three-year (1998–2000) dataset of TRMM Precipitation Radar observations to investigate the scaling properties of spatial rainfall fields. This dataset allows consideration of spatial scales ranging from about 4.3 km to 138 km and short temporal scales corresponding to the sensor overpasses. The focus is on the marginal spatial moment scaling, which allows estimation of the scaling parameters from a single scene of data. Here we present a global perspective of the scaling properties of tropical rainfall in terms of its spatial variability, atmospheric forcing, predictability, and applicability. Our results reveal the following: 1) the scaling parameters exhibit strong variability associated with land/ocean contrast and mean precipitation at the synoptic scale; 2) there exists a one-to-one relationship between the scaling parameters and the large-scale spatial average rain rate of a universal functional form; 3) the majority of the scenes are consistent with the hypothesis of scale invariance at the moment orders of 0 and 2; 4) relatively there are more scale-invariant rain scenes over land than over ocean; and 5) for the scenes that are non-scale-invariant, deviation from scale-invariance mainly arises from the increasingly intermittent behavior of rainfall as spatial scale decreases. These results have important implications for the development and calibration of downscaling procedures designed to reproduce rainfall properties at different spatial scales and lead to a better understanding of the nature of tropical rainfall at various spatial resolutions.     

双介质摄影测量共线理论研究

从摄影光学理论出发,推导摄影物镜成像系统的基点位置公式;利用针孔成像模型,分析得出摄影物镜的投影中心即为成像系统两节点的等效;简要阐述双介质摄影测量的传统观点,利用同一摄影物镜在不同介质中构成的光学系统,说明双介质摄影测量成像系统基点位置相对单介质时发生变化,并在此基础上提出与传统观点不同的看法——双介质摄影测量共线理...     

周期基数插值对偶尺度函数和对偶小波

在对二维周期基数插值小波的尺度函数和小波函数研究的基础上,对二维周期基数插值小波的对偶尺度函数和对偶小波进行了研究,得到了一系列重要的结论。     

An integrated wavelet concept of physical geodesy

For the determination of the earth's gravity field many types of observations are nowadays available, including terrestrial gravimetry, airborne gravimetry, satellite-to-satellite tracking, satellite gradio-metry, etc. The mathematical connection between these observables on the one hand and gravity field and shape of the earth on the other is called the integrated concept of physical geodesy. In this paper harmonic wavelets are introduced by which the gravitational part of the gravity field can be approximated progressively better and better, reflecting an increasing flow of observations. An integrated concept of physical geodesy in terms of harmonic wavelets is presented. Essential tools for approximation are integration formulas relating an integral over an internal sphere to suitable linear combinations of observation functionals, i.e. linear functionals representing the geodetic observables. A scale discrete version of multiresolution is described for approximating the gravitational potential outside and on the earth's surface. Furthermore, an exact fully discrete wavelet approximation is developed for the case of band-limited wavelets. A method for combined global outer harmonic and local harmonic wavelet modelling is proposed corresponding to realistic earth's models. As examples, the role of wavelets is discussed for the classical Stokes problem, the oblique derivative problem, satellite-to-satellite tracking, satellite gravity gradiometry and combined satellite-to-satellite tracking and gradiometry. Received: 28 February 1997 / Accepted: 17 November 1997