震源过程数字地震成像结果给出的地震参数定标律

震源参数的定标律在震源物理和地震灾害研究中具有重要作用。虽然用地表破裂也可以得到一个总体上的震源参数的定标律，但由此得到的定标律具有很大的局限性。例如2001年印度古吉拉特MW 7．6地震在地表几乎看不到原生断层，而2001年中国西藏昆仑山MW 7．8地震在地表的断层总长度可达500多公里。宽频带数字地震学的发展，尽管在细节上还存在诸多问题，但已使地震学家有条件得到地震破裂过程的数字成像结果，这样的成像结果可以给出更为可靠的地震断层参数，比如地震断层长度和平均位错量等。基于这一进展，本文试图利用最近得到的数字地震成像结果，研究地震参数的定标律。为此，选择了3个较为系统的数据集合，分别为D．J．wald收集和编辑的震源成像结果、Y．Yagi所做的震源过程成像结果和东京大学地震研究所(ERI)的地震震源过程观测报告，共计63次地震。结果表明：如果考虑所有这些地震，则地震矩与断层长度之间近似满足M0∝ L^3的关系；但如果仅考虑较大的地震，则走滑型地震接近满足M0∝ L^2的关系，而非走滑型地震接近近满足M0∝ L^3的关系。对走滑型地震，最大位错量Dmax与L和W这两个量中较小的量有明显的依赖关系，但非走滑型地震不具有这样的性质。     

继承性构造和新生构造并存发育的时空规律——兼论新生构造的油气勘探意义

继承性构造与新生构造并存有复杂的时空发育特征。分5种情况剖析了中国东部晚中生代—新生代盆地和扬子、塔里木、鄂尔多斯三大克拉通陆表海盆地继承性构造与新生构造并存的大量实例并总结了其时空发育规律。新生构造的发育主要受邻侧造山带演化的控制,还可能受基底构造或先存构造形成的边界条件的约束,故继承性构造与新生构造并存发育的研究思路应是"寻根溯源"。新生构造的油气勘探意义,集中表现在控制(生油-)储油层、输导体系和构造圈闭的发育。据此分析了今后东部陆相盆地和海相地层的油气勘探靶区。     

南京地面风速概率分布律的城乡差异

根据南京气象站及其周边3个乡村自动气象站2005年逐时风速资料,拟合了风速的概率分布函数,分析表明:南京城、乡地面风速的概率分布均与3参数的韦伯分布吻合度很高,风速概率密度函数(PDF)曲线形状存在明显的城乡差别,城市风速PDF曲线更加陡峻,即风速分布更为集中;在0.75~3.75 m/s,城市风速PDF值明显高于周边乡村,而在3.75 m/s和0.75 m/s范围,城市风速概率密度值则低于乡村;城市下垫面的摩擦效应削弱风速而热力效应起增强风速作用,对风速的城乡差值序列的分析发现:多数时间城市风速是小于乡村风速的,但风速小于1.90 m/s条件下,城市风速会出现大于乡村的现象;总体上摩擦效应的作用远大于热力效应;城市效应使全年平均风速下降0.43 m/s。     

The Mechanical Behaviour of Clay Shales and Implications on the Design of Tunnels

Summary  This paper is a contribution to the study of tunnelling in difficult conditions, with attention paid to large time-dependent deformations, which may develop either during construction, causing instabilities of the tunnel heading and of the face, or during the service life of the tunnel. Under these circumstances the construction costs may rise due to the delays in excavation time, the stabilisation and heavy support measures that need be adopted. Following a review of characterisation and modelling of time-dependent behaviour in rock, the mechanical behaviour of Clay Shales (CS), a structurally complex formation of the Apennines (Italy), is described. Then, the key factors involved in the selection of the constitutive model for CS are identified. Two constitutive models are selected and discussed and their specific material parameters determined. A case study of a large size tunnel is presented where numerical modelling by the finite difference method is carried out. The results of modelling are compared with the monitoring data in terms of radial convergence of the tunnel and extrusion of the tunnel face.     

一个物理守恒保真全球谱模式的发展—从动力框架发展至全模式

The fidelity scheme of physical conservation laws has been applied in the dynamic framework of a global spectral model. In this study, a set of diabatic physical processes are also involved. Based on six 30-day numerical integrations of real-time data, we show that the full model is able to reproduce the primary features of global energy cycle and hydrological distribution. Additionally, the root-mean-square error is dramatically decreased when diabatic processes are considered. Another advantage is that the false structure of “double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)” is not seen in the result, although the precipitation rate becomes lower. Citation: Zhong, Q., and Q. Zhong, 2008: The development of a physical conservation fidelity global spectral model—from dynamic framework to a full model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 1, 33-35     

The remarkable wide range spatial scaling of TRMM precipitation

The advent of space borne precipitation radar has opened up the possibility of studying the variability of global precipitation over huge ranges of scale while avoiding many of the calibration and sparse network problems which plague ground based rain gage and radar networks. We studied 1176 consecutive orbits of attenuation-corrected near surface reflectivity measurements from the TRMM satellite PR instrument. We find that for well-measured statistical moments (orders 0 < q < 2) corresponding to radar reflectivities with dBZ < 57 and probabilities > 10^− 6, that the residuals with respect to a pure scaling (power law) variability are remarkably low: ± 6.4% over the range 20,000 km down to 4.3 km. We argue that higher order moments are biased due to inadequately corrected attenuation effects. When a stochastic three — parameter universal multifractal cascade model is used to model both the reflectivity and the minimum detectable signal of the radar (which was about twice the mean), we find that we can explain the same statistics to within ± 4.6% over the same range. The effective outer scale of the variability was found to be 32,000 ± 2000 km. The fact that this is somewhat larger than the planetary scale (20,000 km) is a consequence of the residual variability of precipitation at the planetary scales. With the help of numerical simulations we were able to estimate the three fundamental parameters as α ≈ 1.5, C₁ = 0.63 ± 0.02 and H = 0.00 ± 0.01 (the multifractal index, the codimension of the mean and the nonconservation parameter respectively). There was no error estimate on α since although α = 1.5 was roughly the optimum value, this conclusion depended on assumptions about the instrument at both low and high reflectivities. The value H = 0 means that the reflectivity can be modeled as a pure multiplicative process, i.e. that the reflectivity is conserved from scale to scale. We show that by extending the model down to the inner “relaxation scale” where the turbulence and rain decouple (in light rain, typically about 40 cm), that even without an explicit threshold, the model gives quite reasonable predictions about the frequency of occurrence of perceptible precipitation rates.While our basic findings (the scaling, outer scale) are almost exactly as predicted twenty years ago on the basis on ground based radar and the theory of anisotropic (stratified) cascades, they are incompatible with classical turbulence approaches which require at least two isotropic turbulence regimes separated by a meso-scale “gap”. They are also incompatible with classical meteorological phenomenology which identifies morphology with mechanism and breaks up the observed range 4 km–20 000 km into several subranges each dominated by different mechanisms. Finally, since the model specifies the variability over huge ranges, it shows promise for resolving long standing problems in rain measurement from both (typically sparse) rain gage networks and radars.     

Overview of continuum and particle dynamics methods for mechanical modeling of contractional geologic structures

Mechanically-based numerical modeling is a powerful tool for investigating fundamental processes associated with the formation and evolution of both large and small-scale geologic structures. Such methods are complementary with traditional geometrically-based cross-section analysis tools, as they enable mechanical validation of geometric interpretations. A variety of numerical methods are now widely used, and readily accessible to both expert and novice. We provide an overview of the two main classes of methods used for geologic studies: continuum methods (finite element, finite difference, boundary element), which divide the model into elements to calculate a system of equations to solve for both stress and strain behavior; and particle dynamics methods, which rely on the interactions between discrete particles to define the aggregate behavior of the system. The complex constitutive behaviors, large displacements, and prevalence of discontinuities in geologic systems, pose unique challenges for the modeler. The two classes of methods address these issues differently; e.g., continuum methods allow the user to input prescribed constitutive laws for the modeled materials, whereas the constitutive behavior ‘emerges’ from particle dynamics methods. Sample rheologies, case studies and comparative models are presented to demonstrate the methodologies and opportunities for future modelers.     

Critical reflection on knowledge and narratives of conservation agriculture

In the context of contemporary concerns about climate change and food security, Conservation Agriculture (CA) has emerged as a well-supported and central component of the agricultural sector development strategy across sub-Saharan Africa, including in Zambia, which is the focus of this paper. A variety of narratives about the benefits of CA over conventional agricultural systems underpin endeavours towards ‘scaling up’ CA and increasing rates of adoption amongst smallholder farmers nationwide. However, there is a knowledge politics underlying the translation of a weak evidence base around CA into persuasive narratives and financial and political support. In this paper, we trace the evolution of five narratives around CA in Zambia in relation to changing political agendas and the involvement of new public and private sector actors, and review the development of evidence bases and knowledge that support and challenge each of these narratives. We discuss the potential to open up space within this knowledge politics to alternative narratives and the contestation of the pervasive CA scaling up agenda. Critical reflection is essential to ensure that national and local evidence is more effectively used to guide national climate and agricultural policy developments and international donor initiatives.     

Vulnerability of three spatially variable soil groups for solute leaching

Solute leaching in unsaturated soil is influenced by the variability in hydraulic functions (water retention and conductivity) that govern the flow process. Variability in measured soil hydraulic functions of a coarse-, medium- and fine-textured soil group was quantified with the scaling theory of similar media. Solute leaching in these soils was calculated with Monte Carlo simulation assuming, successively, hydraulic conductivity, K, volumetric water content, 0, and pressure head, h, to be constant. In addition to variability in hydraulic functions, variability in the solute retardation factor was also taken into account. To examine this effect five solutes were considered: a conservative solute (chloride), a non-retarded solute subject to decay (nitrate), a retarded solute that does not decay (cadmium) and two organic solutes which are retarded but have different sorption and decay parameters (the pesticide atrazine and a chlorinated hydrocarbon). The numerical results obtained with Monte Carlo simulation were in a number of instances verified with analytical solutions. The three soil groups distinguished showed considerable differences in vulnerability for leaching of the five solutes, emphasizing the importance of the effect of variability in soil hydraulic functions when studying solute leaching. Numerical and analytical results showed good agreement. Therefore, in relatively simple situations analytical solutions are attractive. However, in complicated situations, analytical solutions are cumbersome and numerical solutions are the only realistic alternative.