湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究

利用1960—2005年湖北省76个地区气象灾害的灾情普查数据和逐日降水量观测资料,对湖北省旱涝灾害的时空分布特征及其致灾规律进行分析。结果表明:干旱灾害的频发区呈东西走向的带状分布,而洪涝灾害的发生频次和频发区面积均明显少于干旱;干旱和洪涝灾害年平均发生站次在1996年以后出现相反的变化趋势,干旱发生站次增加,而洪涝发生站次减少,且两种灾害均主要集中发生在夏季;1996—2001年湖北省部分地区连续出现严重干旱灾害,干旱的累积增强效应导致农业经济损失出现跳跃性增长并在2001年达到最大值;洪涝的致灾强度呈准周期的起伏振荡,农作物受洪涝影响面积最大、损失最多的年份集中在20世纪90年代,农作物受害面积与农业经济损失的决定系数为0.8;受害人口与直接经济损失具有较好的相关特征,且直接经济损失随受害人口增多而增加的速度加快,但近年来人口对洪涝灾害的抵御能力也显著提高;急转干旱和急转洪涝主要发生在鄂西北和鄂东南的夏季,农作物的脆弱度增加,农业经济损失随受害面积增大而增加的速度加快,但所造成的农业经济损失远小于仅发生干旱和洪涝时的数值。     

Scaling wave impact pressures on vertical walls

It is widely recognized that the use of Froude similarity for scaling up wave impact pressures recorded during physical model tests may lead to over-estimation of impact maxima. Based on reviewing historical work dating back to the 30s and further developments in the 60s and 80s, a general method is presented that is suitable for scaling up impact pressures and rise times measured during small scale physical model tests. The method accounts for the effect of air leakage and is applicable to most wave impact loads. The model is applied to scale wave impact pressures on vertical walls and similar structures, and consistent correction factors for the Froude scaling law are derived.     

1999年11月29日岫岩5.4级地震序列震源参数测定及标度关系分析

根据Andrews谱积分的方法, 采用近震源Brune圆盘模型, 测定了1999年11月29日辽宁岫岩M_S5.4地震序列的震源参数。 结果表明, 得到辐射能量与震级的关系, 与古登堡-里克特给出的关系基本一致; 地震矩与震级的关系中斜率和截距都小于陈培善等给出的全球结果; 视应力与震级呈半对数线性关系; 在双对数坐标下视应力随地震矩的增加而增加; 地震矩随拐角频率的7次方衰减, 在地震序列的不同阶段各参数的拟合关系斜率也不完全相同。     

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 1. Marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and state scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 1. Propriétés distributionnelles marginales des processus hydrologiques et échelle d'état

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.     

Preliminary results of seismic hazard assessment in the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy

The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones.The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field.Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.Presented at the XXIst General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Symposium on Methods of Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe, Sofia, 23–27 August 1988.     

Global spectra of energy and enstrophy and their fluxes during July 1979

Transient and stationary spectra of kinetic energy (KE), available potential energy (APE) and enstrophy (EN), and their spectral fluxes as a function of the two-dimensional wavenumbern were computed for July 1979. Triangular truncation at zonal wavenumber 42 was used for computation. The slopes of various spectra in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 were obtained by fitting a straight line in log-log scale by the least square method. The transientKE, APE andEN spectra in the lower (upper) troposphere had slopes −2·21 (−2·30), −2·65 (−2·64) and −0·36 (−0·46), respectively. The effect of stationary and divergent motion on the slope values was investigated. The possible correlation between the slope and percentage of transient component in the combined energy and enstrophy was examined to identify the transient motion of the atmosphere with the two-dimensional homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The vertically averaged slope of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the lower (upper) troposphere was close to the value at 700 (200) hPa level. The spectral fluxes of kinetic energy and enstrophy in the wavenumber range 14≤n≤25 satisfied, to a very rough approximation, the criteria of inertial subrange. The stationary fluxes were small. The estimated stationary-transient component of flux was larger, comparable and less than the corresponding transient flux of APE, KE and EN. Representative levels for computation of energy and enstrophy spectra and their fluxes in the lower and upper troposphere were identified.     

River flow mass exponents with fractal channel networks and rainfall

An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable.     

Linking space–time variability of river runoff and rainfall fields: a dynamic approach

Statistical self-similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, river networks, and runoff processes has been observed in many empirical studies. To theoretically investigate the relationships between the various time and space scales of variability in rainfall and runoff process we propose a simplified, yet physically based model of a catchment–rainfall interaction. The channel network is presented as a random binary tree, having topological and hydraulic geometry properties typically observed in real river networks. The continuous rainfall model consists of individual storms separated by dry periods. Each given storm is disaggregated in space and time using the random cascade model. The flow routing is modelled by the network of topologically connected nonlinear reservoirs, each representing a link in the channel network. Running the model for many years of synthetic rainfall time series and a continuous water balance model we generate an output, in the form of continuous time series of water discharge in all links in the channel network. The main subject of study is the annual peak flow as a function of catchment area and various characteristics of rainfall. The model enables us to identify different physical processes responsible for the empirically observed scaling properties of peak flows.     

Power-laws and applications to earthquake populations

In this paper we study the rooted tree model applying the concepts of probability to obtain results of importance in understanding power-law distributions in pure populations and also in an ensemble of pure populations. The well-known Gutenberg-Richter relation, which is an empirical relation providing the number of earthquakes whose magnitude exceeds a given value, is shown to be an asymptotic form of survivor function of earthquake magnitudes. The implications of this model are briefly discussed in relation to other branches of sciences where power-law distributions are encountered.