北京雷暴大风气候特征及短时临近预报方法

北京地区雷暴大风的预报准确率低而且时效短.为了提高对这种灾害性天气的预警能力,在气候统计的基础上,研究了潜势预报方法和临近预报算法.对1998-2007年134个雷暴大风过程的统计结果表明,北京地区绝大多数的雷暴大风具有下击暴流特征,而且冰雹的落区附近也是大风的爆发区之一.因此,负浮力的作用和对冰雹具有指示性意义的因子是研究雷暴大风预报方法应主要考虑的因素.500hPa环流背景分析表明,尽管绝大多数雷暴大风爆发时对流层中层有干空气侵入,但是还有少数个例产生在偏南暖湿气流中.目前,对后一类大风产生的机制仍然不清楚.研究表明,当对流层中层有干空气侵入时,有利于雷暴大风出现的环境条件是:下沉气流具有较大的不稳定性,同时对流层低层环境大气的温度直减率较大.此外,还讨论了经验指数--大风指数在北京地区的应用.基于上述的研究,形成了北京地区雷暴大风短时潜势预报方法,还使用相关分析和多元回归分析技术建立了基于雷达观测和环境条件的雷暴大风临近预报方程.个例分析表明,临近预报方程对于飑线和弓形回波等带来的地面大风具有一定的预报能力.     

气旋爆发性发展过程的动力特征及能量学研究

本文对不同路径的爆发性气旋进行了动力特征及能量学研究。发现高空大值位涡空气的下伸是气旋爆发性发展的一个重要条件。初生气旋逐渐向强位涡区移近并形成上下位涡区相接的形势。使气旋迅速发展。高空急流与气旋发展有密切关系。发展中的气旋明显地向着急流左侧的辐散区移动。急流的突然加强及高空强风动量的不断下传，构成了下层的强风带及上下一致的急流结构。能量学研究指出在气旋发展前气旋内散度风动能向旋转风动能的转换突然增强。散度风动能在爆发气旋发展时有明显增长。     

A THEORETICAL BASIS FOR THE PRIESTLEY-TAYLOR COEFFICIENT

The relationship between potential evaporation and arealevaporation is assessed using a closed-box model of the convectiveboundary layer (CBL). Potential evaporation is defined as theevaporation that would occur from a hypothetical saturated surface,with radiative properties similar to those of the whole area, and smallenough that the excess moisture flux does not modify thecharacteristics of the CBL. It is shown that the equilibrium rate ofpotential evaporation is given by Ep0=E0,where E0 is the equilibrium evaporation (radiative termof the Penman formula), and is a coefficient similar to thePriestley-Taylor coefficient. Its expression is , where is the areal surface resistance, r_a is the localaerodynamic resistance, and is the dimensionless slope of thesaturation specific humidity at the temperature of the air. Itscalculated value is around 1 for any saturated surface surrounded bywater, about 1.3 for saturated grass surrounded by well-watered grassand can be greater than 3 over saturated forest surrounded by forest.The formulation obtained provides a theoretical basis to the overallmean value of 1.26, empirically found by Priestley and Taylor for thecoefficient . Examining, at the light of this formulation, thecomplementary relationship between potential and actual evaporation(as proposed by Bouchet and Morton), it appears that the sum ofthese two magnitudes is not a constant at equilibrium, but depends onthe value of the areal surface resistance.     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

海洋平台复杂节点阴极保护电位分布的有限元法计算

了解阴极保护电位分布是合理设计阴极保护工程的必要条件和评价阴极保护效果的重要依据。本文应用有限元素法(FEM)计算海洋平台复杂节点表面的阴极保护电位分布。在实验室通过边界条件试验建立数学模型,计算海水中被保护的I,Y,K型复杂节点电位分布情况。计算结果与测量结果吻合得很好,说明FEM能够应用于海洋平台复杂节点阴极保护电位分布的计算,所获得的边界条件合理。     

“海棠”台风远距离强降水分析

对2005年"海棠"台风倒槽造成河南特大暴雨过程的湿位涡分析结果表明:倾斜涡度发展是暴雨产生和加强的重要机制之一,暴雨产生在eθ线陡立密集区内,湿位涡在这次暴雨过程中边界层内925hPa具有MPV1>0、MPV2<0的特征,此次暴雨产生在正的MPV1中心附近,有利的地形条件在一定程度上增加了降水量。     

湖泊疏浚堆场淤泥污染及潜在生态风险评价

疏浚淤泥内通常含有不同类型的有毒有害物质,在堆场直接堆放过程中可能会对周围环境产生有害影响.本文针对太湖及巢湖相应疏浚堆场内淤泥进行研究,探讨淤泥中重金属、多环芳烃以及多氯联苯等污染物含量及潜在生态风险;根据重金属的风险指数法和持久性有机污染物的风险商法,对各污染物的潜在生态风险进行定量分析.研究结果表明,太湖白旄堆场以及孔湾堆场淤泥内重金属及多环芳烃含量较小,潜在生态风险较低;巢湖南庄堆场淤泥内各类有害物质含量较大,种类较多,对于周围环境具有较高的潜在生态威胁.多氯联苯则在各个疏浚堆场淤泥中具有很高的积累量,潜在生态风险较高,应引起管理者的重视.     

基于地基微波辐射计资料对咸宁两次冰雹天气的观测分析

利用地基微波辐射计观测资料,对两次冰雹过程进行观测分析。结果表明:中低层暖湿气流输送、中层干冷空气侵入,在0~10 km形成"上干、下湿"2层垂直分布结构。低层的感热和潜热随上升气流向上输送,2~3 km层明显增温,0、-5和-20℃层略微上升。同时,低层水汽也随上升气流向上输送,降雹前大气液态水总含量(ILW,下同)和大气水汽总含量(IWV,下同)及过冷水含量快速增长。水汽经过冷层后,冰晶增多增大。当冰晶增大落入0℃以上区融化层时,冰晶融化导致液态水增加,一部分形成冰雹或地面降水,导致降雹之后ILW、IWV及0℃以下液态水含量减小。上述结论对冰雹的预警有一定指示意义。     

2008年1月一次强雨雪过程的诊断分析

采用NCEP1&#176;&#215;1&#176;客观再分析资料和常规观测资料,对2008年1月25—29日发生在长江中下游地区的强雨雪过程进行诊断分析,结果表明,低空急流与强雨雪有着密切关系,强雨雪的发生需具备一定的温度条件以及水汽场与动力场的耦合机制。对强雨雪过程的湿Q矢量诊断分析表明,700hPa湿Q矢量辐合区以及850hPa锋生函数正值区与强雨雪区对应较好,对雨雪天气的发生有着很好的指示意义。湿位涡特征分析表明,此次强雨雪过程发生在层结稳定的大气中且垂直涡度发展较强。     

饱和弱化与液化土层的水平极限抗力

通过给饱和砂土层施加反压,模拟地震荷载作用下具有残余孔压的饱和弱化、液化土层。选择粉质细砂与细砂,进行了18组水平荷载作用下桩与饱和弱化、液化土层相互作用的模型试验,研究了饱和弱化、液化土层水平极限抗力随土层残余孔压增加的变化规律。结果表明,随土层中残余孔压增加,水平极限抗力逐渐降低,土层液化后的水平极限抗力大约降低80%~90%。通过定义饱和弱化、液化土层的强度,定量分析了饱和弱化、液化砂土的强度参数与水平极限抗力之间关系。又通过引入土层的残余孔压比折减系数,建立了确定饱和弱化、液化土层等效强度的关系式,进而提出了一种按等效强度确定饱和弱化、液化土层水平极限抗力的方法。