Using land cover changes and demographic data to improve hydrological modeling in the Sahel

At the beginning of the drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s, rainfall decreased markedly, but runoff coefficients and in some cases, absolute runoff increased. This situation was due to the conversion of the land cover from natural vegetation with a low annual runoff coefficient, to cropland and bare soils, whose runoff coefficients are higher. Unless they are adapted, hydrological conceptual models, such as GR2M, are unable to reproduce this increase in runoff. Despite the varying environmental and climatic conditions of the West African Sahel, we show that it is possible to increase the performance of the GR2M model simulations by elaborating a time‐varying soil water holding capacity and to incorporate this value in the annual maximum amount of water to be stored in reservoir A of the model. We looked for interactions between climate, rural society, and the environment. These interactions drive land‐cover changes in the Sahel, which in turn drive the distribution of rainfall between infiltration, evaporation, and runoff and hence the water resources, which are vital in this region. We elaborated several time series of key indicators linked to these interactions. We then integrated these changes in the runoff conditions of the GR2M model through the maximum value of the reservoir capacity. We calculated annual values of water holding capacity using the annual values of four classes of land cover, natural vegetation, cultivated area, bare soil, and surface water. We then used the hydrological model with and without this time‐varying soil value of A and compared the performances of the model under the two scenarios. Whatever the calibration period used, the Nash–Sutcliffe index was always greater in the case of the time‐varying A time series.     

The role of human interventions in tree dynamics and environmental rehabilitation in the Sahel zone of Niger

A study was conducted in 15 village territories of 3 regions in Niger. Among these sites, 4 were control and 11 had interventions comprising of farmer-managed tree natural regeneration (FMNR), water harvesting techniques (WHT) and windbreaks. The objective of the study was to determine the state of tree vegetation in terms of species diversity and harvestable volume and evaluate the environmental trend in the sites. An inventory of the vegetation was carried out during the rainy season using radial transects from the village centre, outwards, in addition to surveys with local communities.The results showed that tree diversity is enhanced in sites with interventions, and soil rehabilitation techniques and farmer-managed tree natural regeneration favor the rehabilitation and development of trees. The number of resprouts/seedlings varied with site, soil type and intervention. The number of harvestable trees depended on factors like caring, monitoring of cutting, types of intervention and ecological zone.Harvestable volume is a function of high regeneration rate, number of harvestable individual trees and site. Vegetation is improving in all the sites and local communities using tree products for their various needs. This study contributed to setting up a reference database for these sites.     

A coupled human–environment model for desertification simulation and impact studies

This paper presents the development of a system dynamic model to simulate and analyze desertification.The human–environment coupled model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production, land degradation and desertification. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It illustrates the concept of desertification through differential equation and simulation output graphics. It is supplemented with a causal loop diagram demonstrating the existing feed-back mechanisms.The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent in and out migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modeled as a function of climate and exploitation pressure affecting soil erosion and water availability.The model is applied for the Sahelian desertification syndrome using input data to illustrate and simulate a 150 years period (1900–2050) in Kordofan, Sudan. The model indicates that it is difficult to generate irreversible desertification.     

Estimation of surface albedo increase during the eighties Sahel drought from Meteosat observations

The devastating drought in the Sahel during the 70s and the 80s is among the most undisputed and largest recent climate event recognized by the research community. This dramatic climate event has generated numerous sensitivity analyses on land-atmosphere feedback mechanisms with contradicting conclusions on surface albedo response to precipitation changes. Recent improvements in the calibration and quantitative exploitation of archived Meteosat data for the retrieval of surface albedo have permitted to compare surface albedo of 1884, the driest year of the 80s, with year 2003 which had similar precipitation rate than conditions prevailing prior to the 80s drought. This analysis reveals detailed information on the geographical extension and magnitude of the surface albedo increase during from the 80s drought. A mean zonal increase in broadband surface albedo of about 0.06 between 1984 and 2003 has been estimated from the analysis of Meteosat observations. Regions particularly affected by the 1980s drought are essentially located into a narrow band of about 2° width along 16°N running from 18°W up to 20°E. Within this geographical area, surface albedo changes are not homogeneous and largest differences might locally exceed 0.15 whereas other places remained almost unaffected. The variety of previously published results might be explained by these important spatial variations observed around 16°N.     

On the role of climate in desertification of the Sahel Belt

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A high-resolution Holocene ostracod record from the Sahel zone of Northeastern Nigeria

The ostracod record from Kajemarum Oasis in the Sahel zone of Northeastern Nigeria covers the last c. 4000 cal. years of a 5500 cal. year lake-sediment sequence. The first appearance of ostracods, around 4000 cal. yr BP, reflects the switch from a very dilute lake during the mid-Holocene, to slightly oligosaline conditions that favoured the occurrence and preservation of ostracods. Between 3800 and 3100 cal. yr BP, the lake remained permanent and fresh or slightly oligosaline, with a Ca-Mg-HCO3 composition. A rise in salinity c. 3100 cal. yr BP, accompanied by a change to more variable conditions on a seasonal to interannual timescale, led to the influx of more-euryhaline taxa. Oligosaline conditions continued between 3100 and 1500 cal. yr BP. Around 1500 cal. yr BP, there was a sharp rise in salinity, probably accompanied by a shift to Na-CO3-type water, with marked seasonal and interannual variability. Salinity decreased after 900 cal. yr BP, although short-term variations were marked between 900 cal. yr BP and the top of the sequence, 95 cal. yr BP. Changes in the species assemblages and ostracod abundance were a response to climate-driven variations in the seasonal and interannual stability of the lake, together with changes in its salinity and solute composition, but there is no simple relationship between ostracod faunas and salinity. Within Kajemarum, there is no evidence of ostracod assemblages typical of deep, fresh water, nor of hypersaline Na-Cl waters. The sediments associated with the freshest waters at Kajemarum did not favour ostracod preservation, and the driest climatic conditions were associated with oligosaline to mesosaline water of Na-CO3-type. The species-poor assemblages reflect the short-term instability of the lake, coupled with the limited opportunities for the colonisation of this isolated basin.     

Can vegetation productivity be derived from greenness in a semi-arid environment? Evidence from ground-based measurements

Trends of biomass production and land processes in the Sahel have been widely studied since the droughts of 1970s. Satellite data have been an important source of information because of limited in situ data. Previous studies relied on the assumed existence of a relationship between vegetation productivity and the NDVI, in particular the annually integrated NDVI (iNDVI). This study examines this assumption and its limitations, based on in situ time series measurements of biomass, species composition, NDVI and soil moisture at the Dahra test site in northern Senegal. It is shown that, there are large differences between the NDVI – vegetation productivity relationships, and these differences can be linked to species composition. There is moderate correlation between NDVI and above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP) at the peak season (r² = 0.39). In particular, the species Zornia glochidiata is characterized by high peak NDVI and low ANPP, compared to other common species such as Cenchrus biflorus and Aristida adscensionis. It is concluded that spatial and temporal variations in species dominance is likely to add noise to the relationship between NDVI and biomass. However, the seasonal cyclic fraction of the NDVI – “small seasonal integral” – reduces such noise.     

Measuring runoff by plots at different scales: Understanding and analysing the sources of variation

The decrease of runoff with the increase in area is not a new fact. The scale effect depends on the spatial and temporal variability of different factors, including the surface characteristics and hydrodynamic properties of the soil and the vegetation development. The purpose of our work is to study the relative influence of the sources of variation of runoff from a small Sahelian catchment on several types of soil surfaces features. Plots of different sizes (1, 50 and 150 m²) on cultivated soils and degraded soils (non-cultivated with three different types of crusts) were monitored for two consecutive years. The results show that the runoff coefficients of rainfall events range from 4 to 65% on cultivated soils and 16 to 96% on uncultivated bare and degraded soils. A statistical and dimensionless analysis shows that in degraded environments, the processes generating runoff on plots of 50 and 150 m² are identical and significantly different from the unit plot (1 m²). The decrease in runoff with increasing scale becomes more pronounced when rainfall duration decreases. In cultivated areas, this result is not observed. Additional measurements are needed to better understand the differences in functioning at various scales of observations.     

Spaces of uncertainty: A model of mobile space in the Sahel

This paper presents a model of mobile space in the Sahel based on the two logics of circulation and production. An overview of the epistemological origins of the model shows how spatial structuring in (and of) the Sahel has been progressively transformed by the territorial action of economic actors, colonial powers, states and development programmes. The particular focus is on nomadic and cross‐border spaces – configurations that offer an ideal perspective on the mobility of space. The model confirms the hypothesis that economic actors, states and development agencies all aim to improve the way uncertainty is managed, but remain profoundly divided over what strategies to adopt. Whereas free flows allow economic actors to obtain products wherever these may be available, states and development agencies conceive of territory as a resource that must drive the specialization of production. The proposed model also suggests that mobile space is not peculiar to the Sahel and that the spatial logics of circulation and production in the Sahel are also present in the process of globalization. It provides conceptual resources that could lead to other models potentially applicable to understanding uncertainty in a highly mobile, globalized world.