地震拓扑预测

本文对地震参数建立了地震拓扑空间并把灰色系统理论中的拓扑预测方法引入地震预测之中,研究地震长趋势的预测问题。     

输水管网模糊地震可靠性的 Monte Carlo 法分析程序

本文详细介绍了笔者所建议的运用模糊图理论和方法进行城市输水管网的地震可靠性分析途径和计算程序。对于输水管网中每段管道的震害预测,建立了相应的专家系统。在此基础上,定义了管网系统的模糊可靠性,更好地反映了人们对于管道损坏状态估计的模糊性和对可靠性要求上的模糊性。以模糊矩阵来描述输水管网的状态是十分方便的。通过计算模糊矩阵的传递闭包,极易找出最短路、关键段等。由于地震作用和管道抗震能力都是随机的,因此整个管网系统的可靠性分析是藉助Monle Carlo法进行的。以Monle Carlo法对模糊图进行分析,从而得到管网的地震可靠性,这还是首次。用PASCAL和PROLOG编制了在微机上实用的计算机程序,特别是以智能语言PROLOG编制的程序,更有许多特色。由于采用了一些技巧,使在微机上可以分析相当大的系统,为城市抗震防灾工作提供了一个有力的工具。     

Rockburst research at Falconbridge's Strathcona Mine,Sudbury, Canada

Microseismic systems at five mines in the Sudbury Basin provide the basic data for Falconbridge Limited's rockburst research. Daily and long-term analysis of this data as well as underground observations have confirmed the fault-slip mechanism at three mines. A detailed analysis of the complete history of Falconbridge Mine is being conducted and Distinct Element numerical models are being used to simulate both the stick-slip behaviour of faults and the dynamic effects of the induced vibrations on rock and backfill. University research includes acoustic tomographic imaging of the rock mass based on seismic wave propagation and collection of full microseismic waveforms to allow application of advanced seismic and statistical analysis techniques.Formerly with Mines Technical Services, Falconbridge Limited, Sudbury Operations, Falconbridge , Ont., P0M 1S0.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal, Canada, August 30, 1987.     

Laboratory and field investigations of rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and acoustic emission/microseismic techniques

The progress made on three phases of a research project, started in 1986 to investigate mining induced seismicity/rockburst phenomena using concurrent geotomographic imaging and microseismic monitoring techniques, is described. Phase I is the geotomographic software development and laboratory calibration trials. Phase II is the enhancement of traditional microseismic monitoring instrumentation with a waveform acquisition system, so that source mechanism studies can be carried out on mining induced seismic events. Phase III is the field trials of the hybrid technique which will be used to monitor changing rock mass physical properties, in response to mining. Preliminary results from all three phases are given, together with an outline of current and future research planned.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal 1987.     

断尾沟和断错水系及断错速率的商讨

能形成所谓“肘状拐弯”的断错水系,必是先有冲沟,后被断错的水系。而先有断层,后溯源侵蚀发育的冲沟则不能形成”肘状拐弯“的断错水系。因此,断层一侧沟的长度—断尾沟长度与断层年龄无关,最终与断层运动速率之间的关系也不易确定。     

Dissipative systems: Implications for geomorphology

A recent revolution in the study of nonlinear dynamical systems in the physical sciences has shown the worth of regarding systems as dissipative. The nature of dissipative systems in equations, bifurcations, and fluctuations. Some speculations are then made concerning the implications of dissipative system theory for geomorphology. It is suggested that geomorphological systems containing bifurcations will have both deterministic (universal and necessary) and probabilistic (historical happenstance) elements; they will have more than one solution (configuration) and this fact calls into question notions of process domains leading to the development of characteristic forms; they will possess varying degrees of susceptibility to change induced by fluctuations; and they will respond differently to local, regional, and global fluctuations.     

城市地下水可采资源与管理模型研究中的几个问题：以河南漯河市为例

文章以漯河市为例说明了城市地下水最大可采资源的确定和开发管理中遵循不断变化着的实际情况,走科研与生产相结合道路的必要性。全文分3个方面介绍了开采条件下的人工串层补给,随机边界条件及地下水管理模拟中常见的几个核心问题的处理。文章最后强调,地下水数值模拟中辅以同位素年龄研究的重要性。     

粤北新洲逆冲推覆断裂系统中断层岩的地球化学特征

粤北新洲逆冲推覆断裂系统由Ⅰ，Ⅱ，Ⅲ－Ⅳ级推覆断层带组成，断层带中形成一套复杂的断层岩系，断层岩中Ａｕ，Ｐｂ，Ｗ，Ｓｂ，Ｂｉ，Ｈｇ，普遍富集，由此引起不同程度的金矿化，分别形成石英碳酸盐糜棱岩型金矿，碎裂钠长石岩型金矿和石英脉型金矿，成矿时期为印支晚期到燕山期，通过系统的微量元素，同位素和流体包裹体研究表明，１级推覆断层带断层岩中的成矿物质主要来自下地壳或上地幔，ＩＩ级推覆断层带断层岩中的成矿物质     

略论水资源系统的混合模型

大系统优化的关键在于模型的降维.混合模型可看作为一种降维方法,它通过把整个系统分解为联系比较松散的几个子系统,达到降维目的.从理论上对这类模型的建模原则、优化技术及其分类和特点进行了归纳和总结,说明了在多目标复杂水资源系统和排灌系统中这种混合模型的应用是十分有效的.