近55 a新疆净生态系统生产力对气候变化的响应

新疆地处干旱和半干旱气候区,明确其生态系统的碳汇大小及其对气候变化的响应对研究中国干旱区植被碳汇及其对陆地碳平衡的贡献具有重要意义。基于最新地面气象观测数据,利用大气植被相互作用模型AVIM2（Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model 2）,在0.05°×0.05°经纬度空间网格上估算分析了1961-2015年新疆净生态系统生产力（NEP）的时空分布特征及其对气候变化的响应。研究结果表明：近55 a新疆NEP平均值为14.4 gC·m^-2,没有明显变化趋势。空间上看,约40%地区的NEP呈下降趋势,主要分布在天山两麓的城市人口聚集区;而60%地区NEP呈上升走势,其主要分布在新疆昆仑山脉、天山山区和人烟稀少的荒漠地区。新疆NEP对降水量变化更为敏感,气温的变化对NEP的影响并不显著。虽然新疆平均碳汇随着年降水量的变化而在源与汇之间波动,但是从多年平均来看,新疆仍然为碳汇区。     

基于灰色关联分析法的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价

松辽盆地是中国主要的能源基地,随着中国振兴东北老工业基地政策的实施,如何应对工业和经济发展带来的CO_2排放量的增加,将成为亟需解决的问题。在盆地内进行CO_2地质储存将成为盆地内解决该问题的主要技术选择之一。以松辽盆地为研究对象,在深入分析松辽盆地CO_2地质储存条件的基础上,从储存规模、储存安全性和社会环境风险及经济适宜性4个方面综合考虑,构建了由16个指标组成的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价指标体系,利用灰色关联分析法对松辽盆地33个二级构造单元进行了盆地级适宜性评价工作,评价结果为进一步场地级目标靶区的筛选提供了科技支撑。     

四川盆地理论CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估

结合CO_2地质利用与封存技术机理,在国际权威潜力评估公式的基础上,系统地提出了适合中国地质背景的次盆地尺度CO_2封存潜力评估方法及关键参数取值。同时,以四川盆地为例,依次开展了枯竭油田地质封存与CO_2强化石油开采、枯竭气田与CO_2强化采气、不可采煤层地质封存与CO_2驱替煤层气,以及咸水层地质封存技术的CO_2地质封存潜力。结果表明,四川盆地利用深部咸水层与枯竭天然气田CO_2地质封存潜力最大,期望值分别达154.20×10~8t和53.73×10~8t。其中,枯竭天然气田因成藏条件好、勘探程度高、基础建设完善,为四川盆地及其周边利用枯竭气田CO_2地质封存技术实现低碳减排提供了早期示范机会。CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估方法,对进一步开展全国次盆地尺度理论封存潜力评估与工程规划具有重要意义。     

基于GMS的三维TOUGH2模型及模拟

GMS和TOUGH2均是应用广泛的地下流动系统数值模拟软件,其中,GMS界面友好,功能强大;而TOUGH2虽具有强大的数值计算能力,但缺乏友好的可视化前后处理界面。本文借助GMS强大的前处理能力,基于概念模型建立了三维复杂模型,把GMS/MODFLOW三维数值模型(包括网格数据、岩性数据、初始和边界数据等)转化为TOUGH2数值模型进行数值计算。通过两个计算实例(含水层水平没有起伏和有起伏)对比分析了GMS/MODFLOW和TOUGH2计算结果的差异。结果显示,该方法可以快速地建立刻画复杂地质条件的TOUGH2模型,计算结果与GMS/MODFLOW差异很小,说明两个软件均有很高的可信度;同时,该方法发挥了两个软件各自的优势,为进行更为复杂的多相流动数值模拟提供了可行性。     

Joint inversion of long‐offset and central‐loop transient electromagnetic data: Application to a mud volcano exploration in Perekishkul,Azerbaijan

Mud volcanism is commonly observed in Azerbaijan and the surrounding South Caspian Basin. This natural phenomenon is very similar to magmatic volcanoes but differs in one considerable aspect: Magmatic volcanoes are generally the result of ascending molten rock within the Earth's crust, whereas mud volcanoes are characterised by expelling mixtures of water, mud, and gas. The majority of mud volcanoes have been observed on ocean floors or in deep sedimentary basins, such as those found in Azerbaijan. Furthermore, their occurrences in Azerbaijan are generally closely associated with hydrocarbon reservoirs and are therefore of immense economic and geological interest. The broadside long‐offset transient electromagnetic method and the central‐loop transient electromagnetic method were applied to study the inner structure of such mud volcanoes and to determine the depth of a resistive geological formation that is predicted to contain the majority of the hydrocarbon reservoirs in the survey area. One‐dimensional joint inversion of central‐loop and long‐offset transient electromagnetic data was performed using the inversion schemes of Occam and Marquardt. By using the joint inversion models, a subsurface resistivity structure ranging from the surface to a depth of approximately 7 km was determined. Along a profile running perpendicular to the assumed strike direction, lateral resistivity variations could only be determined in the shallow depth range using the transient electromagnetic data. An attempt to resolve further two‐dimensional/three‐dimensional resistivity structures, representing possible mud migration paths at large depths using the long‐offset transient electromagnetic data, failed. Moreover, the joint inversion models led to ambiguous results regarding the depth and resistivity of the hydrocarbon target formation due to poor resolution at great depths (>5 km). Thus, 1D/2D modelling studies were subsequently performed to investigate the influence of the resistive terminating half‐space on the measured long‐offset transient electromagnetic data. The 1D joint inversion models were utilised as starting models for both the 1D and 2D modelling studies. The results tend to show that a resistive terminating half‐space, implying the presence of the target formation, is the favourable geological setting. Furthermore, the 2D modelling study aimed to fit all measured long‐offset transient electromagnetic Ex transients along the profile simultaneously. Consequently, 3125 2D forward calculations were necessary to determine the best‐fit resistivity model. The results are consistent with the 1D inversion, indicating that the data are best described by a resistive terminating half‐space, although the resistivity and depth cannot be determined clearly.     

Multi‐method virtual electromagnetic experiments for developing suitable monitoring designs: A fictitious CO2 sequestration scenario in Northern Germany

We present a numerical study for 3D time‐lapse electromagnetic monitoring of a fictitious CO₂ sequestration using the geometry of a real geological site and a suite of suitable electromagnetic methods with different source/receiver configurations and different sensitivity patterns. All available geological information is processed and directly implemented into the computational domain, which is discretized by unstructured tetrahedral grids. We thus demonstrate the performance capability of our numerical simulation techniques. The scenario considers a CO₂ injection in approximately 1100 m depth. The expected changes in conductivity were inferred from preceding laboratory measurements. A resistive anomaly is caused within the conductive brines of the undisturbed reservoir horizon. The resistive nature of the anomaly is enhanced by the CO₂ dissolution regime, which prevails in the high‐salinity environment. Due to the physicochemical properties of CO₂, the affected portion of the subsurface is laterally widespread but very thin. We combine controlled‐source electromagnetics, borehole transient electromagnetics, and the direct‐current resistivity method to perform a virtual experiment with the aim of scrutinizing a set of source/receiver configurations with respect to coverage, resolution, and detectability of the anomalous CO₂ plume prior to the field survey. Our simulation studies are carried out using the 3D codes developed in our working group. They are all based on linear and higher order Lagrange and Nédélec finite‐element formulations on unstructured grids, providing the necessary flexibility with respect to the complex real‐world geometry. We provide different strategies for addressing the accuracy of numerical simulations in the case of arbitrary structures. The presented computations demonstrate the expected great advantage of positioning transmitters or receivers close to the target. For direct‐current geoelectrics, 50% change in electric potential may be detected even at the Earth's surface. Monitoring with inductive methods is also promising. For a well‐positioned surface transmitter, more than 10% difference in the vertical electric field is predicted for a receiver located 200 m above the target. Our borehole transient electromagnetics results demonstrate that traditional transient electromagnetics with a vertical magnetic dipole source is not well suited for monitoring a thin horizontal resistive target. This is due to the mainly horizontal current system, which is induced by a vertical magnetic dipole.     

广州市社区出行低碳指数格局及其影响因素的空间异质性

通过构建社区出行低碳指数（CTLCI）模型,对广州市社区出行低碳指数的空间格局及其差异特征进行了分析,并利用全局回归（OLS）模型和地理加权回归（GWR）模型对社区出行低碳指数的影响因素以及其间关系的空间异质性进行了研究。结果表明,广州市社区出行低碳指数由中心城区向外逐渐递增,呈明显的圈层结构。内圈层的社区出行低碳指数内部差异最小,中间过渡圈层的最大。社区人口密度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以正向作用为主,公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以负向作用为主,且它们的影响作用具有空间异质性。具体指出了在不同地域空间内社区人口密度、公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数在影响程度和作用方向上的差异,为减少广州城市交通碳排放、针对不同空间制定有效的低碳政策和构建低碳城市空间结构提供了科学依据。     

近海欠密实砂质海床内波致渐进液化特征研究

利用一个经过广泛验证的数值模型FSSI-CAS 2D为计算工具,采用砂土的高级本构模型Pastor-Zienkiewicz-Mark III (PZIII) 描述海床砂土的动态力学行为,定量研究松散海床地基土在波浪作用下,其内部的液化过程和特征,以加深对波致海床液化特征、性质的认识。计算结果分析表明,开发的耦合数值模型FSSI-CAS 2D能够很好地捕捉到波浪作用下欠密实海床的动力响应特征,以及海床内的累积液化过程等一些列的非线性物理现象。研究表明,波浪导致的松砂海床液化是一个渐进过程,海床表面首先液化,并逐渐向下扩展。     

低渗透油藏CO2驱油开发方式与应用

CO₂驱是一种能大幅度提高原油采收率的三次采油技术,国内该项技术的研究和应用起步较晚,多以先导试验为主。苏北盆地溱潼凹陷经过10余年的探索,已经在5个低渗油田开展了CO₂驱先导试验和推广应用,针对这5个油藏利用一维细管模拟和油藏数值模拟方法开展了注气时机、段塞尺寸和注气部位的研究,并应用典型实例进行了分析,认为先期注入提高混相压力,可更有效地缩短两相区过渡带,增加油相中溶解的CO₂含量,降低油相粘度和油气界面张力,进而提高混相程度,更有利于驱油;采用大尺寸段塞可加大CO₂波及区域,较好地保持地层能量,从而提高油井见效率,增强驱替效果;高部位注气可有效地抑制重力超覆,减少CO₂气体过早地产出和突破的机会。就苏北盆地低渗油藏而言,采用先期注入、大尺寸段塞和高部位注气不失为一种成熟有效的提高采收率方法。     

基于SVD和BRD的二维核磁共振测井正则化反演算法研究

二维核磁共振能从"弛豫-扩散"两个维度上展现流体性质,在识别稠油储层方面具有理论优势,是当前核磁共振测井技术的研究热点.本文深入研究二维核磁共振测井原理,系统分析CPMG-DE脉冲序列测量扩散系数与弛豫时间的方法,结合核磁共振二维谱数理模型,提出一种基于SVD和BRD的正则化反演算法.该算法通过SVD压缩数据,采用带非负约束的Tikhonov正则化方法求解流体"弛豫-扩散"分布,并基于BRD算法迭代确定最佳正则化因子.模拟实验与数值分析表明,该算法无需先验信息、运算效率高、相对误差小,在原始数据信噪比低至50时,仍可有效获取流体(T₂,D)二维分布.在二维核磁共振测井数据实时解释应用中,该方法较传统反演算法(如TSVD)具有较大优势.同时,在自主研发的核磁共振测井仪测量CuSO₄溶液(T₂,D)分布的实验显示,本文设计算法对弛豫时间和扩散系数的反演误差分别仅为2%和4%,较TSVD算法有较大改善.