中国磷矿资源需求预测

世界上约66%的磷矿石用于生产磷肥,磷矿的合理开采和利用直接关系国家粮食安全以及人类的生存发展,磷矿工业的可持续发展对化肥工业和农业生产均具有重要意义。本文通过对典型工业化国家人均磷肥消费与人均GDP倒"U"形规律的分析,结合我国历史磷肥消费状况、氮磷钾科学施肥比例以及未来经济发展趋势,分三种经济增长情景(即高增长、参考和低增长)对我国未来的磷肥需求进行预测,并根据磷矿消费结构,进一步估算了磷矿资源的需求。根据本研究的预测结果,中国磷肥需求峰值预计可能在2020—2025年到来,届时磷肥需求可能达到1700~1800万吨(折P2O5100%),磷矿石需求总量可能达到2000~2100万吨(折P2O5100%)。这一预测结果将会对指导磷肥的合理施用,以及磷矿的可持续开发利用起到积极作用。     

Quantifying weather conditions for rock fall hazard management

Relationships between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences have been acknowledged in the past, but seldom have such relationships been quantified and published. Rock falls are frequent hazards along transportation corridors through mountainous terrain, and predicting hazardous rock fall periods based on weather conditions can enhance mitigation approaches. We investigate the relationship between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences along a railway section through the Canadian Cordillera. Monthly weather-rock fall trends suggest that the seasonal variation in rock fall frequency is associated with cycles of freezing and thawing during the winter months. The intensity of precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles for different time-windows was then compared against recorded rock falls on a case-by-case approach. We found that periods when 90% of rock falls occurred could be predicted by the 3-day antecedent precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles. Some rock falls not predicted by this 3-day antecedent approach occurred during the first two weeks of spring thaw. These findings are used to propose a rock fall hazard chart, based on readily available weather data, to aid railway operators in their decision-making regarding safe operations.     

渤东低凸起L3构造东营组含煤地层低渗储层特征及成因

渤东低凸起东营组储集层以低渗为特征,低渗成为制约该区东营组勘探的重要因素.通过多种分析测试方法,研究了渤东低凸起L3构造东营组低渗储集层特征,探讨了低渗储集层成因.L3构造东营组储集层砂岩溶蚀作用发育,斜长石含量低,碳酸盐胶结物含量低,高岭石含量高,石英加大明显.储集层主要以中孔低—特低渗为主,孔径小,连通差,吼道窄,排驱压力大.微量元素分析表明,研究区东营组沉积时为淡水环境;测井和岩心观察证实,地层中含多层碳质泥岩和煤层.早期腐殖酸的溶蚀作用,造成低温下不稳定的斜长石大量溶蚀,这些溶蚀孔隙在后期深埋过程中受压实和成岩作用影响被复杂化、细小化是储集层低渗的主要原因.早期碳酸盐胶结物少,岩石抗压实能力差也是储层低渗的重要原因.     

Facies,provenance and paleoclimate interpretation using spectral gamma logs: Application to the Lower Cretaceous of the Scotian Basin

Spectral gamma logging has been useful in some settings for correlation of wells, for identification of sediment facies, and for interpretation of hinterland paleoclimate. We have taken advantage of the hundreds of geochemical analyses of sandstones and shales from conventional core that are available from the Scotian Basin to test the relationship of the elements K, U and Th measured by spectral gamma to sedimentary facies. These elements are also known to be useful in characterising provenance of sediment to different parts of the basin. The geochemical and spectral gamma data both show that there are subtle differences in K, U and Th in different lithofacies, such as higher Th/U in low sedimentation rate facies, but they are not sufficiently distinctive to identify the lithofacies of any unknown interval. The main control on abundance of these elements is the effect of grain size, that is the proportion of sand to mud in sediment. Volcanic sources have a high K/Th ratio, and early Albian sediments with relatively high volcanic component have unusually high K/Th. In distal shale-prone successions, the grain size effect is sufficiently small that climate controlled variations in Th/K ratio are recognised in the Early Cretaceous, with the ratio being higher at times of humid weathering on land. The variations in Th/K ratio through time are broadly similar to those known from Western European sections, notably with topmost Hauterivian and topmost Aptian humid events. Overall, this study provides an assessment of the use and pitfalls of spectral gamma logs in a deltaic succession.     

胶东焦家金矿床钾长石成因及成矿意义

焦家金矿属于蚀变岩型金矿,围岩蚀变发育,是我国储量最大的金矿床之一。该文对蚀变带中的钾长石的赋存状态、化学成分进行了分析研究,并与未蚀变的玲珑岩体中的钾长石进行对比。认为焦家金矿床主要存在三种成因类型的钾长石,即原生钾长石(岩浆成因)、高温热液钾长石、低温热液钾长石。结合前人的研究成果,探讨了热液钾长石的形成与成矿意义。     

利用热声发射技术测量岩石最高古温度的探索

根据岩石的热Kaiser效应,岩石能够记忆地质历史中经历过的最高温度.本次实验使用自行研制的岩石热声发射仪,利用人工加热的砂岩和灰岩样品证实了沉积岩存在热Kaiser效应,并探讨了根据热Kaiser效应测量沉积岩经历的最高温度的准确性.通过对塔里木盆地的系列埋深(2800~5300 m)的砂岩和泥岩样品及川西地区灰岩样...     

直剪强度指标的可靠度统计方法

矩法和线性回归法能得到较为准确的岩土抗剪强度指标的均值,但是在统计标准差或变异系数时,矩法常常面临样本容量偏小而导致变异系数偏大的困难,而常规线性回归法无法给出实际所需的抗剪强度指标的标准差。本文从可靠度理论出发,利用正交标准化变量空间中原点到极限状态线最短距离为可靠指标的原理,提出了一种利用Excel规划求解功能求解抗剪强度参数的简便方法。将这一方法应用于91组404个水利水电岩土工程二类岩体与混凝土胶结面大型直剪试验结果的统计中,并将结果与其它方法进行了对比。     

两河口水电站混合料流变模型研究

对两河口水电站混合料进行了三轴流变试验研究,对其流变机理和模型进行了探讨。两河口水电站混合料的轴向和体积流变特性可以用幂函数来描述,模型参数可根据试验得到的流变特性确定,并对流变模型参数的影响因素及取值进行了分析。     

单轴加载条件下瑞利波偏振和不同震相波速对应力敏感性的实验研究

岩石应力状态的改变会使接收到的波形发生变化,这是利用弹性波检测介质性质和应力变化的基础.研究对应力敏感的弹性波参数及其分析方法对于发展介质应力监测技术具有重要意义.本文在实验室内以长方体花岗岩为样本,在不同的单轴压力下重复激发超声波且用三分量的传感器接收,利用记录的全波形信息研究了不同震相的到时、Rayleigh波偏振与岩石应力状态变化的关系.结果表明:①不同震相的波速对应力变化的敏感性为10-8/Pa数量级,且敏感程度从大到小依次为:Rayleigh波＞S波＞P波.②随着应力的增大,Rayleigh波偏振变强,但其敏感性随应力增大而变小,这反映出了介质性质的非线性变化特性.③应力较小时,Rayleigh波偏振对应力的敏感性比波速大数倍.     

地层渗透率与水合物含量关系的模拟研究(英文)

本文通过人工变换T2分布和建立管-球模型模拟法研究含水合物地层渗透率与水合物含量之间的关系。首先,在渗透率的模拟试验中,我们改变了束缚水与可动水的比例、总孔隙度以及与之关联的T2分布。试验结果表明,相对渗透率与水合物含量之间的关系受到这些因素的制约。随后,我们用管-球模型表示水合物生长的孔隙空间,并把水合物的生长过程看成是向孔隙空间随机扔小球的过程。在此过程中,采用两种方法计算渗透率,一是Schlumberger’sT2公式(即SDR模型),二是Darcy定律与Poiseuille流动方程相结合的方法。前人的实验研究表明,在一定的水合物含量范围内,渗透率基本保持不变。以此为参考,我们将计算结果与之进行比较。我们发现,采用SDR模型时,渗透率的数值模拟曲线与Masuda模型N=15时的结果相近。而采用Darcy定律时,渗透率模拟值较高,但与实验结果的趋势相一致,都会出现渗透率的平直阶段。尤其,当水合物晶体在孔隙体内优先生成时,优先的概率越高,渗透率的平直范围越大。