地震灾害风险防治协同机制研究

在大应急体制下,地震灾害风险防治迎来新的机遇,同时也面临诸多问题和挑战。通过研究14个省和2个自治区地震灾害风险防治协同文件与协同实践,聚焦政府内部,以综合部门与行业部门的关系为重点,对我国地震灾害风险防治协同情况进行梳理和审视,为进一步完善大应急体制下的地震灾害风险防治协同机制提供实践资料、理论分析和政策建议。     

陆海统筹背景下海域综合管理探析

文章分析当前海域管理面临的形势,并剖析当前存在的管理问题,提出管理的总体目标和改革意见措施,同时对当前海域使用管理法修订、新一轮国土空间规划制定、围填海管控、海岸线保护与利用管理、养殖用海管理等主要工作提出管理建议。建议包括：构建基于生态系统的海域综合管理机制,深入落实生态文明建设总要求;开展海域资源本底调查,为深化综合管理奠定基础;整合涉海规划,发挥陆海统筹作用;发挥指标调控作用,实施市场化配置;调控产业用海,充分发挥海域资源最大效益;加大整治修复力度,恢复区域生态功能;打破部门间壁垒,形成监管闭环。     

我国无居民海岛管理现状、问题及建议

无居民海岛是我国自然资源的重要组成部分。为加快推进生态文明建设,党和国家对我国自然资源的管理提出了新的要求。文章采用问题和目标导向的研究方法,通过对我国无居民海岛管理的历史遗留问题、管理能力、管理体系和信息化建设等方面进行分析,提出了分类处置历史遗留用岛,优化精细化分类管理体系、完善海岛管理制度体系、完善海岛数据更新体系等建议,对提升我国无居民海岛管理水平,实施海洋强国战略具有重要的意义。     

基于大数据架构的地球物理观测数据管理系统

中国地震地球物理观测网络的核心业务软件“十五”地震前兆数据管理系统已运行十多年,随着观测数据量的增长,数据库的读取和统计查询的性能逐渐降低。此外,管理系统存在SQL注入和跨站脚本攻击等漏洞的安全问题,系统架构难以满足业务发展的需求。中国地震台网中心基于分布式组件的大数据架构,使用消息中间件和时序数据库等技术对管理系统进行重构,将原来存储于Oracle数据库中的地球物理观测数据、基础信息、产品数据等按照各自特点在时序数据库中建表,并将历史数据和增量数据都迁移到新的时序数据库,显著提升了系统读写和统计性能、数据的安全性和可用性(多副本技术)。分布式和容器化等技术的引入,增强了系统的高可用性,并可通过横向扩展进一步增加系统的处理能力。     

Runoff quality prediction from small urban catchments using SWMM

The RUNOFF block of EPA's storm water management model (SWMM) was used to simulate the quantity and quality of urban storm water runoff from four relatively small sites (i.e. 5·97–23·56 ha) in South Florida, each with a specific predominant land use (i.e. low density residential, high density residential, highway and commercial). The objectives of the study were to test the applicability of this model in small subtropical urban catchments and provide modellers with a way to select appropriate input parameters to be used in planning studies. A total of 58 storm events, measured by the US Geological Survey (USGS), provided hyetographs, hydrographs and pollutant loadings for biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), total suspended solids (TSS), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and lead (Pb), and were used for calibration of the model. Several other catchment characteristics, also measured or estimated by USGS, were used in model input preparation. Application of the model was done using the Green–Ampt equation for infiltration loss computation, a pollutant accumulation equation using a power build-up equation dependent on the number of dry days, and a power wash-off equation dependent on the predicted runoff rate. Calibrated quantity input parameters are presented and compared with suggested values in the literature. The impervious depression storage was generally found to be the most sensitive calibration parameter, followed by the Manning's roughness coefficients of conduit and overland flow, the Green–Ampt infiltration parameters and, finally, the pervious depression storage. Calibrated quality input parameters are presented in the form of regression equations, as a function of rainfall depth and the number of antecedent dry days. A total of 16 independent rainfall events were used for verification of the model, which showed a good comparison with observed data for both hydrographs and pollutant loadings. Average model predictions for the four constituent concentrations from the verification runs also showed good agreement with NURP published values in Florida and US sites. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新型载体与档案保护

随着新材料、新技术逐渐地应用于档案载体,以及计算机技术被应用于档案管理,这些新型载体与档案的保护问题也日益显露出它的重要性和紧迫性,文章阐述对档案库房科学管理以及如何所采取相应的措施进行保护。     

我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究进展

在我国,以城市轨道交通、高速公路网建设、高速铁路网建设、重大水利工程建设等为代表的大型岩土工程具有尺度大、施工周期长、操作复杂和工程安全状况堪忧的特点。不同类型的安全事故持续不断,造成的经济损失和人员伤亡居高不下。概括总结了2010－2017年间我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面的主要进展,包括：（1）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理重大科技项目、成果奖励、规范;（2）大型岩土工程施工安全风险分析与评估方法方面研究进展;（3）大型岩土工程施工安全风险监控与预警方面研究进展;（4）大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理信息化技术与平台方面研究进展;（5）大型岩土工程施工安全风险智能化分析与控制方面研究进展。基于我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理研究方面主要进展的分析,提出了我国大型岩土工程施工安全风险管理方面面临的新挑战：（1）定量化风险评估理论和技术的应用推广;（2）风险决策理论;（3）推行全过程安全风险管理计划;（4）构建岩土工程安全事故案例共享平台;（5）基于大数据挖掘技术的岩土工程参数分析与控制;（6）智慧岩土工程研究和建设。     

An indicator-based adaptive management framework and its development for data-limited fisheries in Belize

Decisions regarding the selection and implementation of management strategies that constrain fishing pressure can be among the most difficult choices that fisheries managers and stakeholders must make. These types of decisions often need to be confronted in a data-limited context, where few if any management measures are currently in place or fisheries are managed independent of adequate scientific advice. This situation can sometimes create a high risk of overfishing and potential loss of economic and social benefits. To address this situation, simple model-free indicator-based frameworks have the potential to be effective decision-making platforms for fisheries where quantitative estimates of biomass and fishing mortality based reference points are lacking. In this paper, a multi-indicator framework is developed that enables decision-makers to proceed with management decisions in data-limited situations. Model-free indicators are calculated using trends in observed data, rather than stock assessment derived estimates of biomass and fishing mortality. The framework developed is adaptive so that adjustments to catch or effort are recursive and can respond to changing environments, socioeconomic conditions, and fishing practices. Using stakeholder-defined objectives as a foundation, indicators and reference points of fishery performance are chosen that can be evaluated easily by undertaking analyses of available data. Indicators from multiple data streams are used so that uncertainty in one indicator can be hedged through careful interpretation and corroboration of information from alternative indicators. During the adaptive management cycle, managers and stakeholders evaluate each indicator against the associated reference points to determine performance measures, interpret the results using scientific and local knowledge, and adjust fishery management tactics accordingly using pre-defined harvest control rules. The framework facilitates the interpretation of situations in which performance measures suggest divergent stock abundance or productivity levels. A case study is presented on this framework's development for conch and lobster fisheries of Belize.     

Discard management: A spatial multi-criteria approach

Discard management needs to draw on scientific research and advice, usually supported by specific statistical modeling analysis. A wide range of statistical analysis methods were applied to fishery data in an attempt to distinguish factors that influence the species discard composition. While such approaches are important, they are still incomplete for disaggregating the economic and spatial-temporal factors for analyzing of this process and obtain a whole view of this issue. Our study aims to fill this gap by identifying, describing, and quantifying factors that influence discards of trawl fisheries using a multivariate approach based on five complementary aspects: “economic”, “vessel characteristics”, “spatial”, “temporal” and “environmental”. In addition, a spatial multi-criteria approach were used to investigate discard hot-spot areas using ecological criteria such as vulnerability and resilience of the discarded species. Using these ecological criteria will concentrate conservation efforts on the most relevant sites minimizing discards of a variety of potentially vulnerable species. This approach was applied to a case study of a multi-species demersal bottom trawl fisheries in north Spain, Cantabrian Sea (ICES area VIIIc). Results showed how spatial and economic factors highly affect species discard composition, identifying specific spatial-temporal discard hot-spots to be preferentially avoided by fishers. Mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies should be implemented at multiple stages of the discarding process, both in the selection of the fishing grounds and the economic valorization of the discarded species.     

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.