开展灾害学研究 保障人类生存与发展

灾害是人类面临的最严重的威胁。本文简要列述了各类灾害对国民经济建设和人类生存的危害性,论述了灾害的分类和体系特征,探讨了灾害形成的科学机理,强调了开展多学科、大体系研究的重要意义。同时结合国土环境遥感调查,提出了开展灾害学研究、监测防御、减灾抗祸的对策和建议,以期发挥现代地球科学理论与遥感技术的潜力,为促进灾害学的研究、保障人类更好地生存与发展作出贡献。     

Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.     

我国重要矿产资源战略性评价

重要矿产资源尤其是战略性矿产的安全保障历来是世界各国关注的重点之一。关于战略性矿产的研究,欧美等发达国家和地区已经建立了一套比较成熟的理论和方法,并不定期更新战略性矿产目录。而我国对于战略性矿产的研究相对较晚,尚未形成统一的内涵意义、评价体系和方法。为此,本文在重新界定战略性矿产内涵基础上构建供应风险-经济价值二维评价体系,运用定性和定量相结合的评价方法综合评价我国主要矿产资源的战略性。     

气球施放安全与风险评估方法初探

根据有关法律、法规,阐述了气球施放安全与风险评估的必要性,并结合工作实际,介绍气球施放安全与风险评估应包括的主要内容和具体的操作流程。研究结果认为,适当而足够的风险评估方法应包括6个方面的内容：一是识别所有的危险源;二是评估事故出现的机会和几率;三是对事故可能引发的后果进行分析、分级;四是判断风险是否可以被容忍,辨别事关重大的风险;五是如果风险或潜在后果不可以被容忍的话,辨别出必须做些什么,如何落实防范风险措施;六是为制定在一段相当的时期内保持有效的控制方法提供依据,对不能通过控制活动降低事故发生几率的,依法对气球施放申请作出不批准的决定。     

Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.     

Spatial distribution of cadmium and lead in the sediments of the western Anzali wetlands on the coast of the Caspian Sea (Iran)

Spatial distribution patterns of total cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb), their bioavailable fractions and total organic matter in sediment from Anzali wetlands are provided. Total sediment Pb was higher than Cd (34.95 versus 0.024 μg/g dry weight). The geoaccumulation index indicated that the sediment was “uncontaminated”, but some stations were categorized as “unpolluted” to “moderately polluted”. Less than 0.01 of Pb existed in exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The sum of exchangeable and carbonate-bound fractions of Cd was 42%, suggesting that Cd poses high risk to the aquatic ecosystems. Total Cd and Pb exhibited positive relationships with total organic matter. Considering spatial distribution maps of total and bioavailable fractions of metals suggested that high concentrations of metals does not necessarily indicate high bioavailable fraction. The methodologies we used in this study can be in more effective management of aquatic ecosystems, as well as ecological risk assessment of metals, and remediation programs.     

汶川震区典型小流域泥石流发育特征及危险性

银洞子泥石流沟是典型的地震区小流域泥石流沟,是汶川地震和震后强降雨共同作用的结果,从2009年雨季开始到2013年雨季结束共发生14次泥石流事件。研究银洞子沟泥石流的演化过程对进一步认识震区泥石流的长期活动性、危险性具有重要意义。本文通过现场调查、采样测试、历史泥石流事件资料分析,揭示了该泥石流沟的物源特征、激发条件的变化,计算了泥石流密度、流速等相关参数;最后依据现存物源动储量评估了该泥石流沟潜在危险性,提出了相应的防灾减灾对策,能够为地震区泥石流防灾减灾工作提供参考。结果表明：（1）震后初期,银洞子泥石流暴发频率达到3.5次年-1,泥石流容重1.5～1.6tm-3,说明银洞子沟是一条由地震活动触发的高频稀性泥石流沟。（2）经过震后7a的流水侵蚀,银洞子沟物源总量明显减少12.92104m3,但物源动储量减少不明显,导致泥石流危险性居高不下;物源中小于10mm的细颗粒含量由地震初期的27.04%衰减到了18.22%,说明该沟未来泥石流事件仍以稀性泥石流为主。（3）短历时强降雨是银洞子沟泥石流的主要激发方式,当雨量过程超过8h,银洞子泥石流沟的激发暴雨强度为11.53mmh-1时,泥石流危险性较高;在100年一遇暴雨条件下流速接近3.8ms-1,一次冲出量可达8.64104m3。目前该泥石流仍为高度危险性泥石流沟。     

The use of digital technologies for landslide disaster risk research and disaster risk management: progress and prospects

Landslide is a serious natural disaster next only to earthquake and flood, which will cause a great threat to people’s lives and property safety. The traditional research of landslide disaster based on experience-driven or statistical model and its assessment results are subjective , difficult to quantify, and no pertinence. As a new research method for landslide susceptibility assessment, machine learning can greatly improve the landslide susceptibility model’s accuracy by constructing statistical models. Taking Western Henan for example, the study selected 16 landslide influencing factors such as topography, geological environment, hydrological conditions, and human activities, and 11 landslide factors with the most significant influence on the landslide were selected by the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method. Five machine learning methods [Support Vector Machines (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA)] were used to construct the spatial distribution model of landslide susceptibility. The models were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve and statistical index. After analysis and comparison, the XGBoost model (AUC 0.8759) performed the best and was suitable for dealing with regression problems. The model had a high adaptability to landslide data. According to the landslide susceptibility map of the five models, the overall distribution can be observed. The extremely high and high susceptibility areas are distributed in the Funiu Mountain range in the southwest, the Xiaoshan Mountain range in the west, and the Yellow River Basin in the north. These areas have large terrain fluctuations, complicated geological structural environments and frequent human engineering activities. The extremely high and highly prone areas were 12043.3 km² and 3087.45 km², accounting for 47.61% and 12.20% of the total area of the study area, respectively. Our study reflects the distribution of landslide susceptibility in western Henan Province, which provides a scientific basis for regional disaster warning, prediction, and resource protection. The study has important practical significance for subsequent landslide disaster management.     

Factors influencing the oxidation,reduction, methylation and demethylation of mercury species in coastal waters

The objective of this study was to examine the redox reactions and other transformations of mercury (Hg) species in surface waters, and the factors determining the rates of these reactions. For the redox studies completed at the Chesapeake Biological Laboratory (CBL), two isotopes (¹⁹⁹Hg^II and ²⁰²Hg⁰) were added into different types of filtered water (fresh to seawater) to examine the oxidation and reduction reactions. Further studies of both the redox reactions and methylation/demethylation reactions of Hg were conducted with unfiltered water on board research vessels during cruises in May and July 2005 on the Chesapeake Bay and shelf. While CH₃¹⁹⁹Hg^II was added to allow the examination of demethylation, ²⁰¹Hg^II was used to examine both reduction and methylation, and ²⁰²Hg⁰ was used to examine oxidation. Overall, the results showed that both Hg oxidation and reduction were simultaneously occurring and were photochemically mediated in the waters investigated. In contrast to the previously assumed “unreactive” nature of Hg⁰, the studies found that the magnitude of the rate constant for Hg⁰ oxidation was greater than that for reduction, indicating its importance in estuarine and coastal waters. In addition, both experiments at CBL and on board ship showed that Hg^II reduction was similar in magnitude, suggesting that biotic processes were relatively unimportant. While no measurable methylation occurred during the incubation period during the on board studies, concentration of CH₃¹⁹⁹Hg^II decreased over the time during the experiments. It appeared that the demethylation processes were not dominantly photochemically driven, but could be microbially mediated. Further studies are needed in order to help better understand Hg redox and transformations in natural water systems.