基于贝叶斯方法的深层充电效应风险模型评估

高能电子穿透航天器并在其内部沉积电荷从而引发深层充电效应,是导致卫星故障的重要因素之一.为了评估深层充电效应诱发卫星异常的风险,本文基于贝叶斯方法,使用一颗地球同步轨道卫星的异常数据和GOES-8卫星的电子通量探测数据,计算了不同能量阈值及累积时间的电子注量、不同卫星配置下模拟仿真的沉积电荷,并分别与卫星异常建立一系列概率风险模型.本文从模型中随机抽样得到模拟异常,并与实测异常构造混淆矩阵以评估模型拟合优度,结果表明1.0MeV电子3日累积注量-卫星异常概率风险模型为该卫星最优模型.本文利用最优模型对该卫星深层充电效应风险进行了计算,在1.0MeV电子3日累积注量达到2.0×10~(10)cm~(-2)·sr~(-1)时,该卫星发生深层充电异常的平均后验概率为27%,且95%最小可信值为22%.根据最优模型,我们对该卫星最可能导致异常的部件的材料和结构等特征做出了推断.     

包头地区风能资源分布特征分析

利用1979—2008年包头地区各气象站近30年地面观测的风资料,对各地区平均风速、最大风速和风能资源进行了统计计算,给出了包头各地的平均风速、最大风速和风能资源的分布特征,为包头地区合理开发和利用风能资源提供依据。     

Fragility and risk assessment of freestanding building contents

Multistorey buildings often have a valuable inventory consisting of objects that their possible damage during an earthquake will cause unacceptable losses. The paper presents a novel, fully performance-based seismic reliability and risk assessment framework for freestanding structural components and contents that can be modelled as rocking rigid blocks. The seismic response of building contents depends on several parameters such as the geometry of the object, the dynamic characteristics of the building and the storey that the object is located. The demand at the storey level is first obtained, and then the response of the contents is calculated using the storey acceleration response history. The demand of the structure is obtained with the aid of a modified version of the Incremental Dynamic Analysis method and subsequently the fragility curves of the rocking building contents are derived for every storey of interest. Different options for fragility assessment are discussed, and the underlying details of the problem are investigated. A simplified approach, where the fragility of the freestanding components and the structure are derived separately, is also presented. The method combines existing fragility curves and thus is suitable for quickly assessing the reliability of a building's inventory, offering sufficient risk estimates.     

地震灾害风险防治协同机制研究

在大应急体制下,地震灾害风险防治迎来新的机遇,同时也面临诸多问题和挑战。通过研究14个省和2个自治区地震灾害风险防治协同文件与协同实践,聚焦政府内部,以综合部门与行业部门的关系为重点,对我国地震灾害风险防治协同情况进行梳理和审视,为进一步完善大应急体制下的地震灾害风险防治协同机制提供实践资料、理论分析和政策建议。     

GC/MS Nontarget Analysis to Examine an Organic Groundwater Contamination. Part II: Graphical and Multivariate Methods for Searching Key Substances

GC/MS Nontarget Analysis to Examine an Organic Groundwater Contamination. Part II: Graphical and Multivariate Methods for Searching Key Substances In the nontarget analysis, a maximum of organic substances was extracted by a sequence which separates high polar, medium polar, and nonpolar compounds. This leads to the detection of 477 different organic substances in the example of the groundwater contamination investigated. To reduce the high expense for an exact identification of 477 compounds as a first step the individual compound is defined as a data set of retention time and the mass spectrum belonging to this retention time. The table of data contains now 477 individual compounds in groundwater samples collected at 10 different locations. The application of mathematical filters helps to reduce the size of the data set. Graphical methods enable large amounts of data to be visualized in a clear manner and enable to detect patterns in a data set. These patterns are the key to select typical compounds as indicator substances for the contamination source as well as the geogenic background. Similarities between the groundwater samples should not be changed by selection of the indicator compounds. Therefore, cluster analysis was applied as a controlling instrument for the final selection of the indicator compounds. The combination of graphical and multivariate data analysis is a useful tool to deduce indicator compounds for monitoring and control of complex environmental pollution states.     

Phase Composition of Flood Sediments of the German-Polish Odra River Immediately after the Flood Event in 1997

Immediately after the flood event in summer 1997 at the Odra river, samples of flood sediments were taken for a complex phase analysis. The realized investigations show that the sampled flood sediments are very inhomogeneous. The main reasons for this substantial condition are surely different states of flow during the flood event. It is possible to characterize the investigated material as middle to fine sands with variable phase compositions. The mineral content of the fraction <2 μm shows a complex composition of amorphous matter, quartz, feldspars, and a different composed clay mineral matter. A high distribution of several mixed layers in the clay mineral phase is detectable. Within the scope of the taken analyses the following minerals were detected: kaolinite (disordered), kaolinite/smectite-mixed layer, chlorite/smectite-mixed layer, montmorillonite, illite/smectite-mixed layer, celadonite. The investigation of the heavy fraction shows heavy minerals and heavy particles of different geneses. Mainly these are geogenic, transparent heavy minerals like zircon, amphibole, garnet, pyroxene, apatite, rutile, and epidote. Furthermore there were analysed geogenic, opaque heavy minerals (magnetite and ilmenite), anthropogenic, opaque heavy particles (fly ashes and slags), and biogenic components (pyrite framboids). The substantial character of the investigated flood sediments (e.g. content of organic matter, content of clay minerals) shows that this material is able to act as a fixation medium of contaminants.     

Anwendung eines neuen Feldanalysenverfahrens zur Untersuchung der Stabilität von Arsen und seinen anorganischen Spezies in aquatischen Systemen

Using of a New Field Analysis Method to Investigate the Stability of Arsenic and its Inorganic Species in Aquatic Systems The stability of arsenic species in aquatic systems is limited by the possibilities of chemical and biochemical reactions. Redox reactions and bioalkylation lead to changes of the species ratios. In this work, the stability of As(III) and As(V) was examined at storage of distilled, de-ionized, and drinking water at different conditions (refrigerator/room temperature; daylight/darkness) and additions (sulfuric acid; ascorbic acid). The determination of these species was carried out by a modified spectrophotometric method, suitable for laboratory analysis as well as for field analysis. The results show that chemical oxidation and biochemical reduction can occur. Sulfuric acid is favourable for the stabilization of total arsenic and of the inorganic species.     

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.