最大树法模糊聚类分析在台湾地区地震预报中的应用

运用最大树法模糊聚类分析,将台湾地区1936年至1989年间的35个地震事件分成了三类6型,并运用聚类结果对1990年至2000年的11个地震事件进行检验,得出了比较合理的检验结果,最后用聚类结果对台湾地区2001年的地震趋势进行了预测,得出了与其它手段一致的预报结果.     

北秦岭地带断裂活动性氡气测试成果分析评价

采用断层气体测试方法, 对北秦岭地带主要断裂及其活动性进行了测试, 首次提出了该区断裂活动性测氡成果判别的相对标准。进而对区内典型的氡气测试成果剖面作了解释分析, 并判别了断裂 (带)的相对活动强弱与活动水平等有关断裂活动性问题。最后, 简要地探讨了在北秦岭地区未来可持续发展中断裂 (带)对其模式及格局的影响。     

Seismic vulnerability of Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries: information base and research needs

This paper points to the need for seismic risk and vulnerability assessment of infrastructure systems, most notably tall structures and coastal facilities, in Kuwait and other Arabian Gulf countries. Building codes in the region currently lack seismic provisions, despite evidence of a potential threat from large-magnitude earthquakes originating from the southern part of the Zagros fold belt. The historical record of Iranian earthquakes that may have caused significant ground motion in the Gulf region is examined, as are reports of coastal damage from tsunamis. Various specific tasks, expected to constitute research priorities of a Joint Center for Risk Research, a cooperative research program involving Princeton and Kuwait Universities, are outlined.     

Groundwater contamination: risk management and assessment for landfills in Mar del Plata, Argentina

 This study presents a program for risk management in the contamination of groundwater resulting from leachate in landfills at Mar del Plata (Argentina). The program includes prediction, prevention, monitory observation and mitigation as actions that must be taken prior to, during, and after contamination occurs. This routine aids in the identification of weak points and failures of the program for those who are in charge of making decisions, and will allow better use of limited financial and technical resources based on planning, thus minimizing disconnected determinations. Results of the prediction stage were confirmed through monitoring. The presence of a plume of contamination more than 100 m from the landfill was shown, thus proving that implementation of a monitoring plan to follow the development of the contaminated plume must be implemented, particularly in populated areas which depend on residential wells for their water supply. Received: 8 May 2000 · Accepted: 14 August 2000     

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析

计算机仿真模型的灵敏度分析，是仿真建模中的重要研究内容，对实际系统的建立和优化具有重要意义。本文主要研究了在用蒙特卡洛方法仿真随机系统时，其仿真模型（输出）的灵敏度（导数、梯度、Ｈｅｓｓｉａｎ矩阵等），对系统性能函数和灵敏度的参数估计进行了探讨，并结合实际应用系统，对结论进行了分析比较。     

东昆仑活动断裂带的强震构造条件及未来强震危险区分析

通过对东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的研究发现，这条断裂带的强震构造条件不仅与所处的区域地壳运动状况有关，而且与该活动断裂带的规模、形态，断裂带的构造组合及断裂带的运动条件等密切相关。在研究了东昆仑活动断裂带强震构造条件的基础上，还沿断裂带划出了三个未来强震危险区。     

Aseismio fault slip and block deformation in North China

In North China, the tectonic fault-block system enables us to use the Discontinuous Deformation Analysis (DDA) method to simulate the long-term cross-fault survey and other geodetic data related to aseismic tectonic deformation. By the simulation we have found that: (1) Slips on faults with different orientation are generally in agreement with the ENE-WSW tectonic stress field, but the slip pattern of faulting can vary from nearly orthogonal, to pure shear along the strike of the faults, this pattern cannot be explained by simple geometric relation between the strike of the fault and the direction of the tectonic shortening. This phenomenon has been observed at many sites of cross-fault geodetic surveys, and might be caused by the interactions between different blocks and faults. (2) According to the DDA model, if the average aseismic slip rate along major active faults is at the order of several tenths of millimeter per year as observed by the cross-fault geodetic surveys, the typical strain rate inside a block is at the order of 10^–8 year^–1 or less, so that the rate of 10^–6 year^–1, as reported by observations in smaller areas, cannot be the representative deformation rate in this region. (3) Between the slips caused by regional compression and block rotation, there is a possibility that the sense of slip caused by rigid body rotation in two adjacent blocks is opposite to the slip caused by the tectonic compression. But the magnitude of slip resulting from the tectonic compression is much larger than that due to the block rotation. Thus, in general, the slip pattern on faults as a whole agrees with the sense of tectonic compression in this region. That is to say, the slip caused by regional compression dominates the entire slip budget. (4) Based on (3), some observed slips in contradiction to ENE tectonic stress field may be caused by more localized sources, and have no tectonic significance.     

An Approach for Classification of Groundwaters by Synchronous Fluorescence Spectroscopy and Discriminant Analysis

Monitoring and evaluation of groundwater quality in drinking water protectorates is of particular interest if the uncontrolled entry of pollutants, for example by infiltrating river water, cannot be excluded. A fluorescence spectroscopic method is presented as possible alternative to the conventional expensive hydrochemical investigations. This method uses the information yielded by synchronous fluorescence spectra. After a Fourier transformation of the original spectra and a following discriminant analysis, the samples can be classified in different groups corresponding to the different types of groundwater. The method was tested in the drinking water protectorate of a waterworks of a German metropolis (Halle, Sachsen-Anhalt). We found a prediction rate of about 90% in the investigated case.     

IR-spektroskopische und weitere Untersuchungen an neuen Weichspüler-Wirkstoffen

IR Spectroscopy and Further Analyses of New Fabric Rinse Agents Distearyldimethylammoniumchloride (DSDMAC) that dominated the fabric softener market in Germany in the past is now substituted by three new types of ester-based agents, i.e. imidazoline ester, ester quats, and diester quats what poses new challenges to surface water analytics. The IR spectra and the chromatographic behaviour of these three agents are more or less similar to those of naturally occuring fatty esters. The paper reports about the use of IR spectroscopy, its benefit in the sense of fingerprinting principle, the identification of substances by functional groups, and the analytical tracing of transformation products. The latter relates to the formation of salts with anions that are easily detectable, the clean up, and the final spectroscopic determination. While in 1994 DSDMAC was still determinable in concentrations of 10…20 mg/kg in suspended solids from the Middle Rhine River, the concentration of the substitutes was below the detection limit of 2 mg/kg and 1…2 μg/L in 1995.     

计算机辅助绘制流域等流时线

采用地理信息系统方法，对流域的地形地貌特征进行分析，模拟水质点在流域上的运动轨迹，并根据水质点汇流时间与汇流路径，坡度，坡长的关系，建立了流域汇流等流时线模型，经实例验证，效果较好。