A Study of the Local Geometric Accuracy of Count de Ferraris's Carte de cabinet (1770s) Using Differential Distortion Analysis

The eighteenth century Carte de cabinet of count de Ferraris is the first large-scale (1:11?520) topographic map of the entire Belgian territory, making it a valuable source of historical information. In the past, a number of studies have tried to assess the geometric accuracy of this map, but they all suffer from restricted technical capabilities for computing and visualizing the distortions, and most of them only focus on a limited number of the 275 map sheets. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first systematic and in-depth investigation of the map’s local geometric accuracy. Recently, two Belgian government agencies georeferenced the Flemish and Walloon part of the Carte de cabinet with a high level of detail, using some 30,000 ground control points to link the old map to the modern topographic map of Belgium. These data sets represent a new and unprecedented potential source of accuracy information. However, the high number of control points and our desire to compute distortions in an exact, local, quantitative and continuous way meant prominent techniques for studying the geometric accuracy of old maps, such as displacement vectors, distortion grids, triangular nets and the popular MapAnalyst software, were unsuited for this task. To meet all our requirements a new technique called Differential Distortion Analysis, which is influenced by the treatment of distortions in map projection theory, was used instead. Its advantages, structure and application to the Carte de cabinet are discussed in detail. The new technique allows calculating and displaying the map’s local angular and surface distortions with a very high spatial resolution. Consequently, it was possible to identify trends in the obtained levels of accuracy and to relate these to historical facts about the Carte de cabinet’s production process. This has resulted in important new insights into the map’s geometric accuracy.     

Combined Separation of Cu,Fe and Zn from Rock Matrices and Improved Analytical Protocols for Stable Isotope Determination

Isotope ratios of heavy elements vary on the 1/10000 level in high temperature materials, providing a fingerprint of the processes behind their origin. Ensuring that the measured isotope ratio is precise and accurate depends on employing an efficient chemical purification technique and optimised analytical protocols. Exploiting the disparate speciation of Cu, Fe and Zn in HCl and HNO₃, an anion exchange chromatography procedure using AG1‐×8 (200–400 mesh) and 0.4 × 7 cm Teflon columns was developed to separate them from each other and matrix elements in felsic rocks, basalts, peridotites and meteorites. It required only one pass through the resin to produce a quantitative and pure isolate, minimising preparation time, reagent consumption and total analytical blanks. A ThermoFinnigan Neptune Plus MC‐ICP‐MS with calibrator‐sample bracketing and an external element spike was used to correct for mass bias. Nickel was the external element in Cu and Fe measurements, while Cu corrected Zn isotopes. These corrections were made assuming that the mass bias for the spike and analyte element was identical, and it is shown that this did not introduce any artificial bias. Measurement reproducibilities were ± 0.03‰, ± 0.04‰ and ± 0.06‰ (2s) for δ⁵⁷Fe, δ⁶⁵Cu and δ⁶⁶Zn, respectively.     

IsoSpike: Improved Double‐Spike Inversion Software

The double‐spike approach for correction of instrumental mass bias in mass spectrometry data is well established. However, there is very little consistency within the scientific community in terms of double‐spike data reduction. Double‐spike solutions require computer calculation, using either geometric or algebraic approaches, and are often performed using spreadsheet calculations that vary from group to group and between isotope systems. Here, we present IsoSpike, a generalised computer procedure for the processing of double‐spike mass spectrometry data, built as an add‐on for the Iolite data‐reduction package ( www.iolite.org.au ). Use of this software permits visualisation of mass spectrometry data in a time window, and rigorous treatment and screening of data. Additionally, IsoSpike uses an integration‐by‐integration approach where the double‐spike calculations are performed on every integration within an analysis, providing straightforward quantification of uncertainties on double‐spike‐corrected isotope ratios. The advantages of this approach over traditional methods are discussed here. Platinum stable isotope data are presented as an example data set, although the procedure is applicable to any double‐spike system. IsoSpike is freely available from www.isospike.org .     

Comparison of grey and phase-space rainfall forecasting models using a fuzzy decision method / Comparaison grâce à une méthode de décision floue des modèles gris et d’espace des phases pour la prévision de pluie

Abstract

Abstract This work applies a fuzzy decision method to compare the performance of the grey model with that of the phase-space model, in forecasting rainfall one to three hours ahead. Four indices and two statistical tests are used to evaluate objectively the performance of the forecasting models. However, a trade-off must be made in choosing a suitable model because various indices may lead to different judgements. Therefore, a fuzzy decision model was applied to solve this problem and to make the optimum decision. The results of fuzzy decision making demonstrate that the grey model outperforms the phase-space model for forecasting one hour ahead, but the phase-space model performs better for forecasting two or three hours ahead.     

Models for extremes using the extended three-parameter Burr XII system with application to flood frequency analysis / Modèles d’extrêmes utilisant le système Burr XII étendu à trois paramètres et application à l’analyse fréquentielle des crues

Abstract

Abstract A new theoretically-based distribution in frequency analysis is proposed. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution includes the generalized Pareto distribution, which is used to model the exceedences over threshold; log-logistic distribution, which is also advocated in flood frequency analysis; and Weibull distribution, which is a part of the generalized extreme value distribution used to model annual maxima as special cases. The extended Burr distribution is flexible to approximate extreme value distribution. Note that both the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme value distributions are limiting results in modelling the exceedences over threshold and block extremes, respectively. From a modelling perspective, generalization might be necessary in order to obtain a better fit. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is therefore a meaningful candidate distribution in the frequency analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation for this distribution is investigated in the paper. The use of the extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is demonstrated using data from China.     

Glacier shrinkage and negative mass balance in the Chilean Lake District (40°S) / Rétrécissement glaciaire et bilan massique négatif dans la Région des Lacs du Chili (40°S)

Abstract

Ice-capped volcanoes of the Chilean Lake District have shown significant glacier retreat during recent decades, probably in response to tropospheric warming and precipitation decrease. Volcán Mocho-Choshuenco (39°55′S, 72°02′W) is one of the main active volcanoes in this part of the country. A mass balance programme was initiated on its southeastern glacier in 2003, in view of its representative conditions as an ice body that is presumably not affected by current volcanic activity. The glaciers of this volcano have been retreating and shrinking in recent decades; by 2003 there had been a reduction of 40% of the original area of 28.4 km² in 1976. A maximum decrease of area was observed in the most recently analysed period, a rate of 0.45 km² year^-1 between 1987 and 2003. The glacier average net mass balance of 2003/04 yielded ?0.88 m w.e. (water equivalent) per year (±0.18), with an average net accumulation and ablation of 2.59 and ?3.47 m w.e. per year, respectively. This is the first direct measurement of glacier mass balance in southern Chile, where very little is known about glacier variations and glacier–volcano interactions.     

Approche régionale pour l’estimation des distributions ponctuelles des pluies journalières dans le Languedoc-Roussillon (France) / Regional approach for the estimation of low-frequency distribution of daily rainfall in the Languedoc-Roussillon region,France

Abstract

Abstract This paper aims to show the benefit of a regional approach for the estimation of rare daily rainfall. The studied region is Languedoc-Roussillon (south of France), where recent exceptional storms necessitate the revision of the statistical distributions, particularly their asymptotic tails over extreme values. The example of a large single-site time series of maximum daily rainfall at Marseille (1864–2002), very close to the studied region, shows a hyper-exponential behaviour for extreme events. At the regional scale, the homogenization process of daily maximum rainfall has been performed by considering that the coefficients of variation of the yearly maximum daily rainfall are stationary over the study zone. Two regional sample studies have been carried out on 15 and 23 gauges, randomly distributed in space, and a similar distribution could be fitted to both samples. As in the case of Marseille, the regional distribution shows a hyper-exponential asymptotic behaviour at the extreme values. The obtained regional distribution provides a systematic method for computation of rare daily rainfall that may be applied in every part of the studied region and, when compared with previous estimations, leads to a significant increase in the depth of rare rainfall.     

Statistics of extremes and estimation of extreme rainfall: I. Theoretical investigation / Statistiques de valeurs extrêmes et estimation de précipitations extrêmes: I. Recherche théorique

Abstract

Abstract The Gumbel distribution has been the prevailing model for quantifying risk associated with extreme rainfall. Several arguments including theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence are supposed to support the appropriateness of the Gumbel distribution. These arguments are examined thoroughly in this work and are put into question. Specifically, theoretical analyses show that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and its application may misjudge the risk, as it underestimates seriously the largest extreme rainfall amounts. Besides, it is shown that hydrological records of typical length (some decades) may display a distorted picture of the actual distribution, suggesting that the Gumbel distribution is an appropriate model for rainfall extremes while it is not. In addition, it is shown that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent alternative. Based on the theoretical analysis, in the second part of this study an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the inappropriateness of the Gumbel distribution and the appropriateness of EV2 distribution for rainfall extremes.     

Analysis of a large inter-basin water transfer system in India / Analyse d’un grand système de transfert d’eau inter-bassins en Inde

Abstract

Abstract Inter-basin transfer of water in India is a long-term option to correct the spatial and temporal mismatch of water availability and demand, largely owing to the monsoon climate. This paper is concerned with analysis and preliminary design of a large inter-basin water transfer system in peninsular India. The system covers four major basins and involves operation of 13 major structures. The study was carried out in three stages. First, the surface water deficit in each basin was estimated. Then the net deficit was worked out by considering the availability of groundwater. Finally, the link systems were planned to transfer the amount of water needed to meet the demands with desired reliability.