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1.
IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
2.
Lutz Nasdala Wolfgang Hofmeister Nicholas Norberg James M. Martinson Fernando Corfu Wolfgang Dörr Sandra L. Kamo Allen K. Kennedy Andreas Kronz Peter W. Reiners Dirk Frei Jan Kosler Yusheng Wan Jens Götze Tobias Häger Alfred Kröner John W. Valley 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2008,32(3):247-265
We introduce and propose zircon M257 as a future reference material for the determination of zircon U‐Pb ages by means of secondary ion mass spectrometry. This light brownish, flawless, cut gemstone specimen from Sri Lanka weighed 5.14 g (25.7 carats). Zircon M257 has TIMS‐determined, mean isotopic ratios (2s uncertainties) of 0.09100 ± 0.00003 for 206pb/238U and 0.7392 ± 0.0003 for 207pb/235U. Its 206pb/238U age is 561.3 ± 0.3 Ma (unweighted mean, uncertainty quoted at the 95% confidence level); the U‐Pb system is concordant within uncertainty of decay constants. Zircon M257 contains ~ 840 μg g?1 U (Th/U ~ 0.27). The material exhibits remarkably low heterogeneity, with a virtual absence of any internal textures even in cathodoluminescence images. The uniform, moderate degree of radiation damage (estimated from the expansion of unit‐cell parameters, broadening of Raman spectral parameters and density) corresponds well, within the “Sri Lankan trends”, with actinide concentrations, U‐Pb age, and the calculated alpha fluence of 1.66 × 1018 g?1. This, and a (U+Th)/He age of 419 ± 9 Ma (2s), enables us to exclude any unusual thermal history or heat treatment, which could potentially have affected the retention of radiogenic Pb. The oxygen isotope ratio of this zircon is 13.9%o VSMOW suggesting a metamorphic genesis in a marble or calc‐silicate skarn. 相似文献
3.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract Abstract The Chronology of British Hydrological Events (CBHE) has been created as an on-line information resource (http://www.dundee.ac.uk/geography/cbhe/) in order to enhance access to and use of historical facts pertaining to British hydrological phenomena. Its scope covers floods, droughts and all other notable historical phenomena of hydrological interest. This paper sets out the technical means by which the CBHE has been created, explains the benefits to hydrologists in creating such a facility, and illustrates its utility with a number of examples. Benefits include hydrological risk assessments, historical studies of individual events and objectives in environmental education. The scope for establishing comparable national chronologies for other countries is identified, along with prospects for enhancing the utility of such systems with additional functionality such as links to on-line gazetteers and maps. 相似文献
4.
A new Lower Triassic (Induan) Jerus Limestone locality in northwest Pahang,Peninsular Malaysia: Conodont fauna,depositional and tectonic settings 下载免费PDF全文
Ian Metcalfe 《Island Arc》2016,25(2):126-136
Limestones exposed north of Raub, Pahang, Malaysia, and sandwiched between the Bentong‐Raub Suture Zone and the westernmost margin of the Sukhothai Arc terrane, yield a late Dienerian (late Induan) conodont fauna. The co‐occurrence of Neospathodus dieneri Sweet (morphotypes 1, 2 and 3) and Neospathodus pakistanensis Sweet represents the Neospathodus dieneri morphotype 3 sub‐zone of the Neospathodus dieneri Zone. The sampled limestones are interpreted as the northwards extension of the Jerus Limestone which crops out near Cheroh and Jerus villages, significantly extending the known outcrop of the Jerus Limestone northwards. The Jerus Limestone is interpreted as hemipelagic and formed in a foredeep or forearc setting on top of the accretionary complex formed by eastwards subduction of the Palaeo‐Tethys during the Lower to Middle Triassic. 相似文献
5.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Abstract Generating pulses and then converting them into flow are two main steps of daily streamflow generation. Three pulse generation models have been proposed on the basis of Markov chains for the purpose of generating daily intermittent streamflow time series in this study. The first one is based on two two-state Markov chains, whereas the second uses a three-state Markov chain. The third model uses harmonic analysis and fits Fourier series to the three-state Markov chain. Results for a daily intermittent streamflow data series show a good performance of the proposed models. 相似文献
6.
Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006). 相似文献
7.
Mass Fractions of S,Cu, Se,Mo, Ag,Cd, In,Te, Ba,Sm, W,Tl and Bi in Geological Reference Materials and Selected Carbonaceous Chondrites Determined by Isotope Dilution ICP‐MS 下载免费PDF全文
Zaicong Wang Harry Becker Frank Wombacher 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2015,39(2):185-208
Mass fractions of S, Cu, Se, Mo, Ag, Cd, In, Te, Ba, Sm, W and Tl were determined by isotope dilution sector field ICP‐MS in the same sample aliquot of reference materials using HF‐HNO3 digestion in PFA beakers in pressure bombs and glassy carbon vessels in a high‐pressure asher (HPA‐S) for comparison. Additionally, Bi was determined by internal standardisation relative to Tl. Because isobaric and oxide interferences pose problems for many of these elements, efficient chromatographic separation methods in combination with an Aridus desolvator were employed to minimise interference effects. Repeated digestion and measurement of geological reference materials (BHVO‐1, BHVO‐2, SCo‐1, MAG‐1, MRG‐1 and UB‐N) gave results with < 5% relative intermediate precision (1s) for most elements, except Bi. Replicates of NIST SRM 612 glass digested on a hot plate were analysed by the same methods, and the results agree with reference values mostly within 2% relative deviation. Data for the carbonaceous chondrites Allende, Murchison, Orgueil and Ivuna are also reported. Digestion in a HPA‐S was as efficient as in pressure bombs, but some elements displayed higher blank levels following HPA‐S treatment. Pressure bomb digestion yielded precise data for volatile S, Se and Te, but may result in high blanks for W. 相似文献
8.
Olivier J. Hardy Céline Born Katarina Budde Kasso Daïnou Gilles Dauby Jérôme Duminil Eben-Ezer B.K. Ewédjé Céline Gomez Myriam Heuertz Guillaume K. Koffi Andrew J. Lowe Claire Micheneau Dyana Ndiade-Bourobou Rosalía Piñeiro Valérie Poncet 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2013,345(7-8):284-296
The biogeographic history of the African rain forests has been contentious. Phylogeography, the study of the geographic distribution of genetic lineages within species, can highlight the signatures of historical events affecting the demography and distribution of species (i.e. population fragmentation or size changes, range expansion/contraction) and, thereby, the ecosystems they belong to. The accumulation of recent data for African rain forests now enables a first biogeographic synthesis for the region. In this review, we explain which phylogeographic patterns are expected under different scenarios of past demographic change, and we give an overview of the patterns detected in African rain forest trees to discuss whether they support alternative hypotheses regarding the history of the African rain forest cover. The major genetic discontinuities in the region support the role of refugia during climatic oscillations, though not necessarily following the classically proposed scenarios. We identify in particular a genetic split between the North and the South of the Lower Guinean region. Finally we provide some perspectives for future study. 相似文献
9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract In the first part of this study, theoretical analyses showed that the Gumbel distribution is quite unlikely to apply to hydrological extremes and that the extreme value distribution of type II (EV2) is a more consistent choice. Based on these theoretical analyses, an extensive empirical investigation is performed using a collection of 169 of the longest available rainfall records worldwide, each having 100–154 years of data. This verifies the theoretical results. In addition, it shows that the shape parameter of the EV2 distribution is constant for all examined geographical zones (Europe and North America), with value κ = 0.15. This simplifies the fitting and the general mathematical handling of the distribution, which become as simple as those of the Gumbel distribution. 相似文献
10.
Jean Delteil Jean-François Stéphan Bernard Mercier de Lépinay Étienne Ruellan 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2003,335(9):743-750
In eastern North Island New Zealand, oblique subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Australian Plate is associated with strain partitioning. Dextral along-strike component of displacement occurred first at Early Miocene major faults within the eastern fore-arc domain. These faults were active from Early Miocene to Pliocene times. Since Pliocene times, most of the movement occurs at western faults such as the Wellington Fault. The latter joins the back-arc domain to the north. The jump of wrench faulting is related to the oblique opening of the back-arc domain. Both phenomena are impeded southwards by the Hikurangi oceanic plateau entering the subduction zone. To cite this article: J. Delteil et al., C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003). 相似文献