The role of hydrothermal fluids in sedimentation in saline alkaline lakes: Evidence from Nasikie Engida,Kenya Rift Valley

Saline alkaline lakes that precipitate sodium carbonate evaporites are most common in volcanic terrains in semi‐arid environments. Processes that lead to trona precipitation are poorly understood compared to those in sulphate‐dominated and chloride‐dominated lake brines. Nasikie Engida (Little Magadi) in the southern Kenya Rift shows the initial stages of soda evaporite formation. This small shallow (<2 m deep; 7 km long) lake is recharged by alkaline hot springs and seasonal runoff but unlike neighbouring Lake Magadi is perennial. This study aims to understand modern sedimentary and geochemical processes in Nasikie Engida and to assess the importance of geothermal fluids in evaporite formation. Perennial hot‐spring inflow waters along the northern shoreline evaporate and become saturated with respect to nahcolite and trona, which precipitate in the southern part of the lake, up to 6 km from the hot springs. Nahcolite (NaHCO₃) forms bladed crystals that nucleate on the lake floor. Trona (Na₂CO₃·NaHCO₃·2H₂O) precipitates from more concentrated brines as rafts and as bottom‐nucleated shrubs of acicular crystals that coalesce laterally to form bedded trona. Many processes modify the fluid composition as it evolves. Silica is removed as gels and by early diagenetic reactions and diatoms. Sulphate is depleted by bacterial reduction. Potassium and chloride, of moderate concentration, remain conservative in the brine. Clastic sedimentation is relatively minor because of the predominant hydrothermal inflow. Nahcolite precipitates when and where pCO₂ is high, notably near sublacustrine spring discharge. Results from Nasikie Engida show that hot spring discharge has maintained the lake for at least 2 kyr, and that the evaporite formation is strongly influenced by local discharge of carbon dioxide. Brine evolution and evaporite deposition at Nasikie Engida help to explain conditions under which ancient sodium carbonate evaporites formed, including those in other East African rift basins, the Eocene Green River Formation (western USA), and elsewhere.     

新疆塔里木盆地东部奥陶系剥蚀厚度计算和平面成图

针对塔东地区实际地质资料和低勘探程度的特点,应用声波时差、镜质体反射率、沉积速率等多种综合方法,计算11口钻井的奥陶系剥蚀量.平面上奥陶系顶面剥蚀厚度的求取主要依据27条地震剖面资料,应用沉积速率法计算剥蚀量,且剥蚀量的数量级受邻近钻井值的约束,并绘制了奥陶系剥蚀量平面图.研究区奥陶系顶面剥蚀量在111~2 929 m,总体趋势为南部剥蚀量大,北部剥蚀量小,即从盆地边部向盆地内部剥蚀量增加.东部剥蚀量相对较小,西部剥蚀量相对较大.     

鸡西盆地城子河组泥岩有机质保存条件研究

鸡西盆地作为我国东北地区重要的煤炭基地,已在多口钻井中发现油气显示。早白垩世城子河组为一套夹数个海相泥岩层的含煤岩系,形成于滨浅湖—沼泽的沉积环境,为该盆地主力烃源岩层。本次对该层位泥岩样品的常、微量元素全分析结果表明,水体盐度指标Sr/Ba在0.11～0.38之间,碱度指标（Ca＋Mg）＊20/（Si＋Al）为0.2...     

基于机器学习模型的淮河流域中长期径流预报研究

准确可靠的中长期径流预报是支撑水资源科学调配、提高水资源利用效率的关键。本研究采用AdaBoost模型(AdB)、随机森林模型(RF)和支持向量机模型(SVM)进行淮河流域王家坝和蚌埠站当年11月至次年10月共12个月的中长期径流预报研究。采用置换准确度重要性度量法从130项气象-气候因子及前期降雨/流量构建的1 562个因子变量中筛选出影响各月径流的关键因子,构建了基于AdB、RF和SVM模型的各月径流预报模型,模型参数采用随机搜索技术并结合交叉验证方式确定。采用变幅误差合格率和等级(五级)预报合格率指标对模型的预报精度进行了评估。变幅误差合格率指标表明,王家坝12个月的平均合格率分别为99.8%(AdB)、96.6%(RF)和95.9%(SVM),蚌埠站分别为100%(AdB)、94.8%(RF)和93.8%(SVM);等级预报合格率指标表明,王家坝12个月的平均合格率分别为79.0%(AdB)、76.4%(RF)和79.9%(SVM),蚌埠站分别为81.0%(AdB)、75.6%(RF)和76.6%(SVM)。模型均具有较好的预报效果,但RF和SVM模型对于高流量值的预报存在偏低现象,AdB模型整体上优于RF和SVM模型。     

塔里木盆地石炭系烃源岩成熟演化研究

尽管塔里木盆地石炭系富含有机质且已发现其生成的原油,但关于石炭系烃源岩热演化研究却很薄弱。根据基础地质资料、古地温梯度和实测镜质体反射率数据,本文定量模拟了塔里木盆地6口典型井的石炭系烃源岩热演化史和这套烃源岩底界、顶界在二叠纪末期、三叠纪末期、白垩纪末期及现今成熟度的平面分布规律。塔北隆起南部、塔西南坳陷和阿瓦提凹陷在石炭-二叠纪作为沉降中心接受了巨厚的沉积物,造成这些地区石炭系烃源岩底界成熟度在二叠纪末期达到0.9%～1.3%（中-高成熟）,顶界为0.5%～0.9%（低-中成熟）,成为有利生油区。中生代时期,塔里木盆地中、东部长期处于沉降状态,石炭系烃源岩处于成熟演化阶段。白垩纪末期,塔中低凸起和满加尔凹陷的石炭系底界成熟度为0.7%～0.9%（中成熟）,顶界为0.5%～0.7%（低成熟）,而塘古孜巴斯坳陷底界成熟度为0.9%～1.1%（中-高成熟）,顶界为0.7%～0.9%（中成熟）。受羌塘地体、拉萨地体、印度板块分别与欧亚板块南缘碰撞远程效应的影响,塔西南坳陷和巴楚隆起在中生代一直处于隆升剥蚀状态,烃源岩热演化进入停滞状态。新生代以来,塔西南坳陷和阿瓦提凹陷演化为前陆盆地,再次接受了巨厚沉积物,致使石炭系烃源岩快速成熟演化,底-顶界成熟度现今已超过2.0%,进入干气阶段。满加尔凹陷石炭系烃源岩自石炭纪至今一直处于成熟演化阶段,现今达到最大,为0.8%～1.0%。另外,热史研究表明塔西南坳陷和阿瓦提凹陷石炭系烃源岩具有二次生烃潜力。本研究不仅丰富了塔里木盆地石炭系烃源岩热史研究成果,而且对油气勘探与开发具有重要的指导意义。     

Improved Geometric Model of Extensional Fault–bend Folding

Extensional fault–bend folds, also called rollovers, are one of the most common structures in extensional settings. Numerous studies have shown that oblique simple shear is the most appropriate mechanism for quantitative modeling of geometric relations between normal faults and the strata in their hanging walls. However, the oblique simple shear has a rather serious issue derived from the shear direction, particularly above convex bends. We use geometric and experimental methods to study the deformation of extensional fault–bend folds on convex bends. The results indicate that whether the fault bends are concave or convex, the shear direction of the hanging wall dips toward the main fault. On this basis, we improve the previous geometric model by changing the shear direction above the convex bends. To illustrate basin history, our model highlights the importance of the outer limit of folding instead of the growth axial. Moreover, we propose a new expression for the expansion index that is applicable to the condition of no deposition on the footwall. This model is validated by modeling a natural structure of the East China Sea Basin.     

Geochemical overview and undiscovered gas resources generated from Hamitabat petroleum system in the Thrace Basin,Turkey

Since the first drill in 1957, three oil, 19 gas and condensate fields have been discovered in the Thrace Basin. However, any petroleum system with its essential elements and processes has not been assigned yet. This study consists of two parts, (1) geochemical overview of the previous work in order to get a necessary help to construct a petroleum system and (2) calculation of quantitative undiscovered hydrocarbon resources generated from this system. An extensive overview study showed that the primary reservoir and source rocks in the Thrace Basin are the Middle Eocene Hamitabat sandstones and shales, respectively, hence it appears that the most effective petroleum system of the Thrace Basin becomes the Hamitabat (!) petroleum system. Currently, 18.5 billion m³ of in-place gas, 2.0 million m³ (12.7 million bbl) in-place waxy oil as well as minor amount of associated condensate were discovered from this system. This study showed that the regional distribution of the oil and gas fields almost overlapped with the previously constructed pod of active Hamitabat shales implying that short and up-dip vertical migration pathway of hydrocarbons from the source to trapping side was available. Thermal model demonstrated that hydrocarbon generation from the Hamitabat shales commenced in the Early Miocene. The amount of quantitative gas generation based on the mean-original TOC = 0.94 wt%, mean-original HI = 217 HC/g TOC and the volume of the pod of active source rock = 49 km³ is approximately 110 billion m³ of gaseous hydrocarbons that results in a high generation–accumulation efficiency of 17% when 18.5 billion m³ of already discovered hydrocarbons are considered.     

基于多源数据分析维多利亚湖流域水储量变化

本文利用CSR发布的GRACE RL06时变重力场模型,结合两种水文模式、卫星测高、降雨和蒸散等多源数据,从多个角度综合系统地分析维多利亚湖流域2003-01-2017-06的陆地水储量变化.比较了正向建模方法和单一尺度因子对泄漏误差的改正效果,经对比采用正向建模方法在此流域效果更好.基于多源数据得出以下三点与此前研究不同的结论：（1）GRACE RL06版本数据探测到流域内的水储量在2003-01-2017-06呈增加趋势,球谐位系数和Mascon产品得到的变化速率分别为14.9 mm·a^-1和16.7 mm·a^-1,观测误差小于RL05版本的结果,RL05版本低估了流域水储量的变化速率;（2）2013-01-2016-02期间GRACE和测高探测到湖泊水量增长,而水文模式探测到流域内水储量减少,推测这一现象由大坝蓄水造成;（3）受El Niño事件影响,2016-03-2017-06流域降雨减少,流域水储量减少,GRACE球谐位系数和Mascon探测到的变化速率分别为-100.3 mm·a^-1和-129.7 mm·a^-1.本文结果表明卫星观测数据可为在缺乏直接观测数据的情况下分析人类活动和自然变化对区域水储量的影响提供一种可行的途径,这也为研究我国湖泊流域水储量变化提供参考.

     

基于CMIP5模式鄱阳湖流域未来参考作物蒸散量预估

预测未来气候情境下鄱阳湖流域参考作物蒸散量(Reference crop Evapotranspiration,ET0)的时空分布可为流域水资源的优化管理,为科学应对气候变化对农业生产的影响提供基础数据支撑.利用鄱阳湖流域14个气象站点1961-2014年逐日气象数据,采用Penman-Monteith公式计算出历史ET0;基于同期美国环境中心(NCEP)再分析数据及2006-2100年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式在RCP4. 5和RCP8. 5情景下的预测数据,经统计降尺度模型(statistical downscaling model,SDSM)模拟和偏差校正,预测流域未来ET0;通过Mann-Kendall检验、普通克里金插值和空间自相关法分析了流域1961-2100年ET0的时空演变特征.结果表明:NCEP再分析资料与流域ET0建立的逐步回归降尺度模型模拟效果较好,CNRMCM5模式降尺度模拟结果经偏差校正后,精度明显提高,适宜流域未来ET0的预估.鄱阳湖流域在基准期1961-2010年ET0整体上呈减小趋势,空间分布上呈南北高、中间低的特点,表现出明显的空间差异性.RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下未来3个时期鄱阳湖流域ET0较基准期均呈不同程度的增加趋势,其空间分布整体表现为东高西低、局地略有突出;无论是在基准期或是未来情景下的3个时期,ET0均具有较强的空间自相关性.在RCP8.5情景下,鄱阳湖1961-2100年干旱指数呈现出较为明显的上升趋势,流域的干旱状况随时间加剧,2011-2100年间流域绝大部分地区由湿润区转为半湿润区,干旱指数自南向北递减,赣江流域将是鄱阳湖流域未来干旱风险的重点防范区.