A review of EU bio-economic models for fisheries: The value of a diversity of models

The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models.     

Geoacoustic Inversion via Genetic Algorithm and Its Application to Manganese Sediment Identification

An acoustic inversion method using a wide-band signal and two near field receivers is proposed and applied to multiple layered seabed models including a manganese sediment. The inversion problem can be formulated into a probabilistic model comprised of signals, a forward model, and additive noise. The forward model simulates wide-band signals, such as chirp signals, and is chosen to be the source-waveletconvolution plane wave modeling method. The wavelet matching technique, using weighted least-squares fitting, estimates the sediment sound-speed and thickness on which determination of the possible numerical ranges for a priori uniform distribution is based. The genetic algorithm is applied to a global optimization problem to find a maximum a posteriori solution for determined a priori search space. Here the object function is defined by an L 2 norm of the difference between measured and modeled signals. Not only the marginal pdf but also its statistics are calculated by numerical evaluation of integrals using the samples selected during importance sampling process of the genetic algorithm.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

Experimental investigation on a two-part underwater towed system

An experimental set-up is developed and proved to be effective for laboratory study of an underwater towed system. The experimental technique gives a practical method for monitoring the kinematic and dynamic performance of an underwater towed system in a ship towing tank. Both the theoretical and experimental results in the investigation indicate that the hydrodynamic response of a towed vehicle to the wave induced motion of a towing ship can be significantly reduced by applying a two-part tow method. A comparison of the numerical and experimental results in the investigation demonstrates that the numerical simulation results are close to the experimental data, overall agreement between experimental and theoretical results is satisfactory. The results qualitatively verify the mathematical model of a two-part underwater towed system proposed by Wu and Chwang [Wu, J., Chwang, A.T., 2000. A hydrodynamic model of a two-part underwater towed system. Ocean Engineering 27 (5), 455–472].     

有风浪太湖水体的光照传输模式

根据辐射传输方程的近似解方法和光照传输的累加原理,建立了包括水面风浪效应、水中悬浮粒多次散射和底泥反射的垂直分层水体的光照传输数值模式。利用该模式和太湖悬浮粒实测资料,计算和讨论了太湖水体中光照随水深的变化以及悬浮粒浓度、风浪和太阳高度的影响。结果表明,悬浮粒的多次散射所形成的漫射光是湖水中光照不可忽视的重要部分。在水体的下层,漫射光甚至是光照的主要构成部分。风浪对水中光照的影响则主要在天顶角大于70°时才明显地表现出来,此时风浪水体对太阳直接辐射和全辐射的反射率比平静水面都有明显的减小。     

黄茅海河口湾现代动力地貌体系和冲淤过程分析

1980—1993年对黄茅海河口湾进行沉积物采样和水流测定及水深测量。根据水动力和地形条件，冲淤分析及Mclaren模型研究河口湾的动力地貌体系、冲淤特征和现代沉积物运移。结果表明：（1）水下地形主要为下泄流或上溯流控制的“深槽－槽沟－浅滩－湾口”的动力地貌体系，反映了河口湾“东进西出”的水流格局；（2）整个河口湾以淤积为主，只有崖门深槽有较明显的优势冲刷特征，并随着崖门深槽向海推移和河口湾“东进西出”水动力作用，黄茅海落潮三角洲相应向西南进积；（3）应用Mclaren模型揭示了黄茅海河口湾现代沉积物运移规律，同样反映了河口湾具有“东进西出”的运移趋势。     

Evaluation of oceanic transport parameters using transient tracers from observations and model output

A method is presented to find the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model’s estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. The method uses a mixture model of an assumed form of the TTD, an inverse Gaussian (IG), and an established Bayesian statistical method. All known significant sources of uncertainty are propagated to arrive at estimates of two oceanic transport parameters associated with the IG TTD, the mean age (Γ) and either the half-variance (${\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$) or the Peclet number ($\mathit{Pe}={\mathrm{\Gamma }}^2/{\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$). It is found that the uncertainties on Γ do not overlap zero in most locations using only CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. However, the uncertainty on the other IG parameter does not overlap zero in only a few locations. With the inclusion of another transient tracer (³He/³H), the uncertainty on this other IG parameter does not overlap zero in just a few additional locations in the deep North Atlantic Ocean. Neither a single- nor mixture-IG representation is adequate for representing the full TTD in the ocean, particularly in the Southern Ocean.Differences between the IG parameters estimated using the model’s tracers as data (BayesPOP) and those estimated using tracer observations as data (BayesObs) provide information about the sources of model biases, and give a more nuanced picture than can be found by comparing the simulated CFCs with observed CFCs. Using the differences between each of the oceanic transport parameters from BayesObs and those from BayesPOP with and without a constant Pe assumption along each of the hydrographic cross-sections considered here, it is found that the model’s eddy mixing biases often lead to larger model errors than the model’s mean advection time biases. It is also found that mean advection time biases in the model can be statistically significant at the 95% level where mode water is found in the Southern Ocean.     

Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning: The next steps

Species distribution models (SDMs) offer great potential for inclusion into the toolbox of today's marine environmental manager, especially with regard to marine conservation and planning. The application of SDMs in the marine environment over recent years has been varied but there are still relatively few examples in comparison with terrestrial application, and this is especially true in deep-sea marine ecosystems. This short article builds upon two recent review articles concerning the application of species distribution modelling studies in the marine realm, offering additional practical considerations for discussion. Recommendations for progressing the improved application of SDMs to support marine conservation planning are given, including combining model outputs with other data layers, metadata standards and model error. SDMs have both an urgent and long term contribution to make to marine conservation planning globally, and it is hoped that this article, in combination with developing research on marine SDMs, will contribute to some much needed discussion and inform best practice and new research to enable these models to be of greater use to marine managers.     

IPCC AR4多模式对中国地区未来40 a雪水当量的预估

通过评估参加CMIP3计划的22 个GCM在20 世纪气候情景(20C3M)下中国地区雪水当量模拟能力的检验, 挑选出模拟能力较好的模式, 通过多模式集合方法, 对SEARS的模拟结果进行集合, 预估未来40 a雪水当量在中国地区的时空变化特征.结果表明: 在A1B情景下和B1情景下, 中国地区未来40 a雪水当量年际变化均呈减少趋势; 在A1B和B1情景下, 青藏高原地区、 华北平原地区、 长江中游地区及东北北部地区的雪水当量均呈减少趋势, 其中在昆仑山西段帕米尔高原地区减少最为显著, 其次为喜马拉雅山区和巴颜喀拉山东段地区.在中国北部的内蒙古高原地区、 云贵高原等部分地区的雪水当量则有所增加.总体上, A1B情景下比B1情景下雪水当量的减少更为明显. 2021-2050年雪水当量在青藏高原减少显著; 对于季节变化来说, 在秋冬季积雪的累积期, 雪水当量可能增加, 尤其在10-12月, 而在积雪消融的春夏季(2-6月)有所减少.