近年来我国农业气象灾害预报方法研究概述

概述了近年来我国农业气象灾害预报方法研究的进展，介绍了当前正在探讨的一些新技术，并就今后发展的若干关键技术问题提出一些看法。指出①我国农业气象灾害预报方法基本以数理统计模型为主。近年来在多种统计方法的应用、气候模式与农业气象模式结合、信息技术的应用、作物生长模拟模型的应用等方面取得了一些成果。但总体上说，农业气象灾害预报研究还不很成熟。②当前农业气象灾害预报应在指标的针对性，统计模型因子的物理概念和生物物理机理、数学模型和资料处理方法以及基于作物生长模拟模型的农业气象灾害预报方法等方面加强研究。③多学科交叉、多种预报方法结合、长中短期预报相结合、动态预报和补充订正相结合、卫星遥感动态监测信息与预警模式相结合是开展农业气象灾害预报的有效途径。建立预警业务系统，开展预警服务势在必行。     

2003年度地理学基金项目评审及成果分析

介绍了国家自然科学基金2003年度地理学项目受理、评审与资助的总体情况；分析了 2003年在研的地理学基金项目执行情况，着重剖析了2000年批准项目的成果产出数量与水平；阐述了2002年底结题的地理学基金项目取得的突出进展。     

地震勘探中的数据保真问题综述

保真度是指输出结果对研究对象的描述所能保持的真实性程度,它在采集和处理过程中包含空间域、时间域和频率域三个方面的意义。对数据采集的保真要求是从早期的地震勘探就开始的,但对数据处理的保真却是现代地震勘探的要求。地震勘探的发展史就是数据的量纲级增长史。从早期的1D 勘探,到目前的3D、4D 勘探,还有3分量、9分量接收,地震数据是按量纲级增加的。这种海量的数据是精细结构和岩性信息的地震描述所需要的,在采集和处理中如果不精确考虑其保真度,确保质量,将会付出惊人的代价。从采集和处理两方面分析了作为一个系统工程的高保真问题及对现代开发地震的意义。认为数据保真应该同高分辨率勘探一样成为一个系统工程,从采集到处理成为一个连续化的整体。     

裂隙岩体渗流模型研究现状与展望

裂隙岩体渗流对于边坡、地下工程及基础岩土体的承载能力有显著的制约作用。本文简要地介绍了多种裂隙岩体渗流模型研究现状,评述了几类比较有代表性的渗流模型特点以及存在的不足,为选取合理的数学模型用于求解具体的裂隙岩体渗流问题提供了参考依据,并在上述基础上提出了一些需要进一步研究的问题。指出就目前应用最为广泛的等效连续介质模型而言,裂隙岩体几何参数、有效孔隙度以及等效渗透张量的确定仍有待于更深入的研究,而从细观力学结构入手研究渗流耦合模型将具有重大的理论意义和实用价值。     

Interphase mass transfer between fluids in subsurface formations: A review

This paper presents a review of the state-of-the-art on interphase mass transfer between immiscible fluids in porous media with focus on the factors that have significant influence on this process. In total close to 300 papers were reviewed focusing to a large extent on the literature relating to NAPL contamination of the subsurface. The large body of work available on this topic was organized according to the length scale of the conducted studies, namely the pore, meso and field scales. The interrelation of interphase mass transfer at these different scales is highlighted. To gain further insight into interphase mass transfer, published studies were discussed and evaluated in terms of the governing flow configurations defined in terms of the wettability and mobility of the different phases. Such organization of the existing literature enables the identification of the interfacial domains that would have significant impact on interphase mass transfer. Available modeling approaches at the various length scales are discussed with regard to current knowledge on the physics of this process. Future research directions are also suggested.     

The Caulerpa racemosa invasion: a critical review

Caulerpa racemosa var. cylindracea is a marine Chlorophyta introduced into the Mediterranean Sea from south-western Australia. Since 1990, it has been invading the Mediterranean Sea and the Canary Islands, raising ecological problems. Although this invasion event can be considered as one of the most serious in the history of species introduced into the Mediterranean Sea, C. racemosa has not triggered as much attention as the famous "killer alga"Caulerpa taxifolia. The aim of the present study was: (i) to summarize the current state of knowledge with regard to the distribution, the various biological and ecological characteristics of the introduced C. racemosa and its impact on the Mediterranean coastal environment; (ii) to discuss the various hypotheses regarding the explanation for its rapid and successful spread; (iii) to investigate the disparity in the treatment of C. racemosa and Caulerpa taxifolia invasions; and (iv) to outline future research needs.     

A review of rainfall interception modelling

This paper is a review of physically-based rainfall interception modelling. Fifteen models were selected, representing distinct concepts of the interception process. Applications of these models to field data sets published before March 2008 are also analysed. We review the theoretical basis of the different models, and give an overview of the models’ characteristics. The review is designed to help with the decision on which model to apply to a specific data set. The most commonly applied models were found to be the original and sparse Gash models (69 cases) and the original and sparse Rutter models (42 cases). The remaining 11 models have received much less attention, but the contribution of the Mulder model should also be acknowledged. The review reveals the need for more modelling of deciduous forest, for progressively more sparse forest and for forest in regions with intensive storms and the consequent high rainfall rates. The present review also highlights drawbacks of previous model applications. Failure to validate models, the few comparative studies, and lack of consideration given to uncertainties in measurements and parameters are the most outstanding drawbacks. Finally, the uncertainties in model input data are rarely taken into account in rainfall interception modelling.     

2012年震情述评

1 全球地震活动概况 据中国地震台网测定,2012年全球共发生7级以上地震20次(表1),其中包括2次8级以上地震,即2012年4月11日苏门答腊北部附近海域8.6级、8.2级地震(图1).与2011年相比,全球地震频次和能量释放明显减少.2012年全球7级以上地震活动有以下特点: 1.1 全球8级地震继续活跃 2012年全球共发生7级以上地震20次,比1900年以来的平均水平(18次/年)略高,与2011年(26次)相比,地震频次减少(图2).虽然2012年4月11日苏门答腊北部附近海域发生8.6级、8.2级地震,但与2011年(3月11日发生日本9.0级地震)相比,全球地震能量释放减少较明显.