Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthquake in Northern Japan (magnitude 8.1, Sept. 25, 2003) were predicted 6 and 7 months in advance, respectively. The physical basis of RTP can be summed up as follows: An earthquake is generated by two interacting processes in a fault network: an accumulation of energy that the earthquake will release and a rise of instability triggering this release. Energy is carried by the stress field, instability is carried by the difference between the stress and strength fields. Both processes can be detected and characterized by “premonitory” patterns of seismicity or other relevant fields. Here, we consider an ensemble of premonitory seismicity patterns. RTP methodology is able to reconstruct these patterns by tracing their sequence backwards in time. The principles of RTP are not specific to earthquakes and may be applicable to critical transitions in a wide class of hierarchical non-linear systems.     

反渗透技术在宁夏南部山区人饮工程中的应用及发展

分析了反渗透膜的分离机理、特性及影响膜性能的主要因素,对反渗透系统在宁夏南部山区人饮工程中的应用做了分析与评价,并对其在未来的应用和发展提出自己的看法。     

地震活动水平在潜在震源区判定中的应用——以甘肃酒西盆地为例

酒西盆地为河西走廊西段的一个压陷性盆地,其内发育了多条晚第四纪活动逆断裂、褶皱带,是未来具有发生破坏性地震的潜在震源区.通过对酒西盆地和邻近地区9个潜在震源区的长期地震活动水平的对比研究,发现不同震级档的潜在震源区基本处于各自的一个地震活动水平档上.据此将玉门潜在震源区地震活动水平与其它潜在震源区对比,并结合区内活动构造及历史地震等活动特征,判定其震级上限为MS7.0.指出地震活动水平对比方法可作为潜在震源区划分中的一个辅助手段.