双涡互旋的数值模拟试验

本文应用准地转正压无辐散模式对双涡的相互作用进行了数值模拟试验。试验结果表明：（1）只考虑相对涡度平流的情况下双涡以互旋为主，而且随着初始间距的缩小，互旋越来越明显。双涡的相互作用与它们的初始间距以及它们的强度和结构有密切的关系。（2）双涡的移动加速和减速都是出现在它们移动方向改变的时刻，当移动方向向逆时针方向变化时移速减慢，否则加快。     

0908号台风“莫拉克”异常路径及其对台湾海峡两岸强降水的影响

应用常规资料,结合雷达、卫星云图和其他观测资料,分析了0908号台风＂莫拉克＂异常路径及其对台湾海峡两岸强降水的影响.结果表明：（1）500 hPa欧亚中高纬度为两槽一脊的形势和东北区域大范围的正变高使副热带高压加强西伸,以及0909号热带气旋＂艾涛＂前身低压阻挡了副热带高压南落的共同作用,使＂莫拉克＂台风前期向偏西方向移动.（2）高空冷涡提供了有利于热带低压维持和发展的动力条件,热带低压的维持又对＂莫拉克＂的移动造成影响.（3）冷空气持续南下造成副热带高压减弱,并且在＂莫拉克＂台风北侧形成稳定低能区;高空冷涡引起其北侧中高层高度下降和东风引导气流减弱;在弱环流和多热带气旋的环境场下,以及热带风暴＂天鹅＂（0907号）、＂艾涛＂对＂莫拉克＂台风的反方向作用力等因素的综合作用,是＂莫拉克＂台风在台湾海峡移速异常缓慢的原因.（4）＂莫拉克＂台风在台湾海峡滞留时间长,其北侧强偏东风和南侧强西南风带来充沛的水汽,及迎风坡辐合抬升所产生的中小尺度系统是造成闽北、浙南和台湾岛南部强降水持续时间长、累计雨量大的重要原因.     

基于现场观测的辽东湾东岸海冰环境基本特征

全面获取气-冰-海环境特征数据已成为当前冬季现场观测的重要任务,用于准确、快速开展区域冰情评价预测,以满足海冰防灾减灾工作需求。基于辽东湾东岸鲅鱼圈雷达海冰观测站（15a）与温坨子附近海域（9a）的冬季观测数据,对辽东湾东岸的风、水温、海冰时空分布等环境基本特征进行了探讨。对鲅鱼圈站1月和2月4级风（5.5m·s-1）以上数据进行分析,发现偏北风自2016年以来呈现由N、NNE、NE向NE转变,偏南风自2016年以来主风向由SSW向WSW转变。对温坨子海冰观测站水温观测数据进行分析,发现水温表现出降温期、平稳期与回温期,降温期发生于12月至次年1月中旬,平稳期发生于1月下旬至2月中旬,回温期发生于2月下旬;当气温低于-10℃时,水温基本维持在-1.4℃附近,气温处于-10～-5℃时,水温基本分布于-1.4～-0.5℃区间,气温处于-5～5℃时,观测点水温基本分布于-1.4～3℃。对鲅鱼圈站与温坨子站能见范围内的逐日海冰分布面积比例进行分析,发现海冰面积呈现增大期、稳定期与减少期,鲅鱼圈站附近12月12日至次年1月9日前后为增大期（对应初冰期）,1月9日前后至2月8日前后为稳定期（对应盛...     

北京精细下垫面信息引入对暴雨模拟的影响

首先根据2000年环北京实际的精细下垫面布局资料（500m分辨率）,按美国USGS陆面资料分类标准（25类）对其提供的全球30 s经纬分辨率（≈1 km）下垫面分类资料进行了更新设计.进而针对一个北京夏季暴雨过程,利用10:3.3km双向双重嵌套的MM5V3.6-Noah LSM陆气耦合模式进行24h数值对比试验,研究了北京精细下垫面信息引入对暴雨的影响.分析表明：新设计的陆面资料更真实地反映了环北京区域的下垫面结构,尤其针对北京城区面积迅增特征;同时还修正了原资料将亚洲中纬度区域落叶阔叶林下垫面类型归属为热带(或亚热带)稀疏大草原类型的问题.其在数值天气模式中的引入会对短期暴雨过程的发生发展产生重要影响.对此次暴雨主要降水中心的模拟,12h差值分布范围远达30km以上,中心值相对差异可达30%.研究发现在城市下垫面和大气相互间存在一个重要的相互影响机制,即由于城区面积的扩大会导致自然植被减少,进而会减少地表蒸发及相应局地大气水分供应、加深边界层高度并增强大气水汽混合,这不利于降水的发生发展.     

WRF模式模拟飑线的低层温度偏差分析

为了研究WRF （Weather Research and Forecasting）模式模拟飑线的低层温度偏差问题,选取2009年6月14日发生在江苏省北部的一次飑线个例进行分析。通过WRF模式对此次飑线过程的模拟发现,WRF模式模拟的低层日最高气温滞后实际观测2～3 h,且模拟的傍晚低层气温的降温幅度低于实际观测2～3℃。对比试验证实,通过改变边界层参数化方案可以减弱边界层与自由大气的温度交换,进而在一定程度上改善模拟结果,即模拟的飑线强度和低层温度均与实际观测更加相近;在不改变边界层方案的情况下,将地面自动加密观测站数据加入模拟中也可起到相同的作用。     

Some remarks on cumulus parameterization

A simple parameterization of cumulonimbus convective heating is presented. The model is primarily based on preserving a moisture budget and on detraining cloud air at levels corresponding to the neutral buoyancy of the air converged at low levels. Results are compared with data from the western Pacific and GATE. Agreement is good. Suggestions are offered for improving the model and extending it to other regions.     

Low-latitude total ozone measurements in the Brazilian sector

Regular measurements of the atmospheric ozone in the Brazilian sector were started at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), and Natal (5.8°S, 35.2°W) in May 1974 and November 1978, respectively. The results of the total ozone measurements carried out at these two stations up to 1981 are presented in this communication and compared with other low-and mid-latitude stations. Although Natal is an equatorial station, it presents a prominent annual variation, and the average total ozone content is high compared to satellite measurements. During 1977–78, abnormally low values of total ozone were observed at Cachoeira Paulista. Some preliminary results about the QBO 9quasi-biennial oscillation) during 1974–81 are also presented.     

Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon

The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level.     

On the propagation of streamers through a large population of neutral droplets

Streamers were injected into a large population of small droplets, of radii about 20 m, confined to a given region of pre-determined shape on a photographic film, and situated in a gap between which a variable electric field can be applied. Results showed that the droplet region behaves like a dipole discharging from both ends if its inclination to the electric field is less than 45° and the field is not less than –230 kV/m at atmospheric pressure.We deduced that streamer intensification will occur at relatively low fields if there exists pockets of large number density of small droplets.     

中国气象科学研究院雷达气象研究50年

该文回顾了自20世纪50年代以来, 中国气象科学研究院在模拟信号的天气雷达、数字化天气雷达、多普勒雷达和雷达新技术如双线偏振雷达、双基地多普勒雷达等雷达技术研究及其在冰雹、暴雨、台风等中尺度天气过程的监测和临近预报等方面的应用工作, 特别介绍了近年来开展的针对暴雨、台风的中尺度外场试验、双多普勒雷达和双多基地多普勒雷达技术在风场中尺度结构中的应用、双线偏振雷达在云和降水微物理结构探测中的应用、新一代天气雷达三维数字组网及临近预报方法研究等工作; 对中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室在雷达气象领域研究的未来进行了分析和展望。