Major Earthquakes in and Around Yunnan Province and Variations of Astronomical Time-Latitude Residuals Determined by Yunnan Observatory

In this paper,the features of medium-term anomalies for strong earthquakes and the criteria for the prediction of such earthquakes are discussed,as well as the feasibility of applying the anomalies of astronomical time-latitude residuals to earthquake prediction and their limitation when applied to imminent-term prediction.The criteria used to identify the anomalies of time-latitude residuals for M≥6.0 earthquakes in Yunnan Province and for M≥7.0 earthquakes around Yunnan are also discussed.The last strong earthquake in the data used for testing passed the whole process of earthquake prediction practice.In addition,some special features of the case in which anomalies appeared but no strong earthquake followed are also discussed.     

动态平差的灰色预测方法

根据运动是趋势性运动与随机性运动合成的观点，用灰色系统理论，建立了观测网的数据随时间变化的ＧＭ（１，１）模型，并建立残差改正模型，用二者形成的组合模型，可对监测网进行平差和预测。实例表明，平差与预测模型完全达到了精度要求。     

Geostatistical integration of MT and borehole data for RMR evaluation

The geostatistical approach was applied to integrate MT (Magneto-telluric) resistivity data and borehole information for the spatial RMR (Rock Mass Rating) evaluation. Generally, resistivity of the subsurface is believed to be positively related to the RMR, thus the resistivity and borehole RMR information was combined in a geostatistical approach. To relate the two different sets of data, the MT resistivity data were used as secondary information and the RMR mean values were estimated at unsampled points by identification of the resistivity to the borehole data. Two types of approach are performed for the estimation of RMR mean values. Then the residuals of the RMR values around the borehole sites are geostatistically modeled to infer the spatial structure of difference between real RMR values and estimated mean values. Finally, this geostatistical estimation is added to the previous means. The result applied to a real situation shows prominent improvements to reflect the subsurface structure and spatial resolution of RMR information.     

Tidal flow asymmetry in the diurnal regime: bed-load transport and morphologic changes around the Red River Delta

The relation between tidal flow asymmetry and net transport of sediment in the semidiurnal regime has been extensively described. This study reveals that in the diurnal regime, the direction of long-term net bed-load transport and resulting morphologic changes is partly determined by the phase-angle relationship of O₁, K₁, and M₂. Simple analytical formulations of time-averaged bed-load transport were derived which separate the relative contributions of tidal asymmetry from that of residual flow with tidal stirring. In this particular case, the Red River Delta in Vietnam, transports related to tidal asymmetry are larger than those induced by the monsoon currents, and are an order of magnitude larger than those associated with topographic residual flow around the delta. Tide-induced morphologic changes dominate at water depths between 10 and 25 m, of which the patterns of erosion and deposition overlap with observed bathymetric changes. Additional observed changes that occur in more shallow water cannot be explained by tidal asymmetry and are probably related to wave action and to deposition from the buoyant river plume.Responsible Editor: Jens Kappenberg     

Effectiveness of horizontal drains for slope stability

Horizontal drains have been commonly used in stabilising unsaturated residual soil slopes. This study examines the effectiveness of horizontal drains in stabilising residual soil slopes against rainfall-induced slope failures under a tropical climate. The study includes field instrumentation at two residual soil slopes complemented with a parametric study relating to drain position. Field monitoring results indicate that rainfall infiltration is limited to a certain depth below which infiltration becomes insignificant. This zone tends to be unsuitable for horizontal drains. Horizontal drains were found to be most effective when located at the base of a slope. The parametric study indicated conditions under which horizontal drains are effective or ineffective in improving the stability of a slope. It was also found that horizontal drains have little role in minimising infiltration in an unsaturated residual soil slope. Benefits of using horizontal drains can be obtained through the lowering of the water table.     

Testing theories of the vertical stratification of the ACC against observations

Recent theories of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) suggest that its lateral and vertical stratification is controlled by its baroclinic instability: eddies in the ACC not only feed-off the available potential energy stored in sloping isopycnals but play a central role is setting up that stratification. Simple theory makes predictions about how the depth of the thermocline in the ACC depends on the surface winds, the air–sea buoyancy flux and transfer by baroclinic eddies. By examining gridded hydrographic data, here we test some of these predictions against observations. We show that, to a remarkable degree, the buoyancy field in the ACC decays exponentially with depth beneath the mixed layer. The e-folding depth increases equatorward, from less than 500 m on the poleward flank of the ACC to greater then 1000 m on its equatorial flank, in a manner that is broadly consistent with the theory.     

东亚地磁场模型的计算与分析

根据中国、前苏联和蒙古等地区的地磁复测点和地磁台站资料,使用泰勒多项式方法和冠谐分析方法,计算东亚地磁场(X,Y,Z)的泰勒多项式模型和冠谐模型,以及东亚剩余磁场(ΔX,ΔY,ΔZ)的冠谐模型和泰勒多项式模型,并绘制了相应的理论地磁图. 泰勒多项式模型的展开原点位于45°N和100°E,截断阶数为7.地磁场泰勒多项式模型的均方偏差为:X分量是133.0nT,Y分量是107.4nT,Z分量是14.0nT. 球冠极点位于45°N和100°E,球冠半角为42°,冠谐模型的截断阶数为10. 剩余磁场冠谐模型的均方偏差分别为131.2nT(ΔX),112.6nT(ΔY)和13.7nT(ΔZ). 对比分析了上述两种模型. 提出了确定区域模型截断阶数的判据.     

基于三轴试验的软土震陷简化计算方法研究

本文通过对天津滨海新区典型软土的静、动力学试验,分析了软土残余应变的变化规律,提出了结合地区震陷经验系数的软土震陷简化计算方法,并利用1976年唐山7.8级地震中天津塘沽地区软土震陷观测资料对计算方法进行了验证。结果表明,本方法用于估算自由地表震陷量是可行的,对中小工程中软土震陷量的估算具有一定的参考价值。     

琼中台FGM-01磁通门磁力仪观测数据浅析

为了确保琼中台FGM-01磁通门磁力仪观测数据的准确性,对琼中台多套地磁相对记录仪分钟数据作相关系数分析,及对其观测基线值作月剩余标准差处理和日均差值对比分析,分析结果得出FGM-01仪的观测精度及稳定性较差。     

基于微信公众平台的建筑物信息采集系统设计及实现

完备、准确的建筑物信息,直接决定着震后灾情快速评估结果的精度,同时也可为震前灾害风险评估提供数据支持。为实现建筑物信息的快速采集,开发了基于微信公众平台的建筑物信息采集系统。实践证明,与基于移动终端应用程序采集方式相比,该系统克服了应用程序与移动终端操作系统兼容性差的问题,系统运行稳定可靠、人机交互简单方便,为建筑物信息采集提供了可靠的技术支撑。