三峡库区规模农地时空变化特征及其驱动机制

探讨库区农地利用的转型及其机制,可反映中西部结合带、山区、库区的农村变化和人与环境关系的变化,为典型山区的农业多功能转型发展方向提供科学依据。选取三峡库区腹地5个区县为研究区,通过定义“规模农地”相关概念,利用ArcGIS 10.2软件并结合SPSS、地理空间探测器等技术手段对规模农地的变化与机制进行分析。研究发现：规模农地的转移来源主要由耕地和灌木林地组成,除部分高山反季节蔬菜,规模农地的增长一般发生在低海拔地区,且在坡度30°范围内均有分布;不同类型的规模农地空间变化有所不同,但均与道路和乡镇级行政中心的关系明显。斑块水平上,高程、坡度等自然因素对规模农地的贡献相对较大;乡镇水平上以道路交通、农业人口密度等社会经济与人文因素驱动力为主;区域水平上,各区县的驱动因子影响力较研究区整体尺度更为显著。规模农地的变化与发展受多种因素驱动,但农业政策始终是各驱动因素的主导,不同水平的行为主体会促使规模农地发展趋向不同的方向,但原则上均受国家农业发展现状与政府政策导向影响。     

A global review of the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty

Secure property rights are widely understood as critical for socio-economic development and sustainable land management in forested areas. Policies and programs, ranging from devolution of specific resource rights to formal land titling, have therefore been implemented to strengthen forest tenure and property rights in countries around the world. Despite the prevalence and importance of these efforts, however, systematic understanding of their effects on poverty remains lacking. We address this gap by systematically reviewing evidence on the impact of forest property rights interventions on poverty worldwide. We drew from a systematic map of evidence on forest-poverty links (Cheng et al., 2019) and used a population-intervention-comparator-outcome (PICO) framework to identify relevant studies. Our final dataset included 61 articles published from 2002 to 2016 comprising 91 case studies across 24 countries. Of these, only 11 articles (22 cases) used quasi-experimental methods to control for confounders. We find that almost all studied interventions (n = 88; 97%) focused on rights to access a forest area or withdraw resources from it. Relatively few studied interventions supported the more extensive property rights of exclusion (32%) and alienation (10%). Overall, reported impacts on both income/consumption and capital/assets dimensions of poverty were generally positive or mixed. Results from more robust quasi-experimental assessments showed greater variation, with case studies as likely to report negative as positive impacts on both poverty dimensions. We find tentative support for the economic theory that more secure property rights yield positive welfare effects. However, the paucity of evidence from more robust impact assessments constrains our ability to draw generalizable conclusions about the poverty impacts of different kinds of forest property rights interventions.     

Common property rights, adaptive capacity, and response to forest disturbance

This paper reports the results of a statistical analysis which measures the effects of adaptive capacity on forest conditions in response to a prior disturbance. Particular emphasis is placed on common property rights as a form of institutional adaptive capacity. Common property rights are delineated in terms of rights of access, withdrawal, management, exclusion, and alienation. Using statistical analysis of 326 forest user groups from 13 countries in the database of the International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI) program, the effects on user group rankings of forest conditions are estimated with a probability model. Overall, the results indicate that user groups with more complete property rights are more likely to rank forest conditions favorably. However, the effects of property rights also depend on the level of other forms of adaptive capacity such as the organizational capacity of the group and the number of rival user groups.     

多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟

模型模拟和情景变化分析是未来土地利用变化研究的核心内容,本文以2000年三峡库区土地利用现状为基期数据,利用Binary Logistic模型回归分析驱动因子与土地利用间的关系,利用CLUE-S模型对2010年土地利用进行模拟,校验并确定影响库区土地利用驱动因素的主要参数后,基于自然增长、粮食安全、移民建设和生态保护对2020年、2030年库区土地利用情景予以模拟。结果表明：① 通过Binary Logistic模型分析和检验,水田、旱地、林地、草地、建设用地和水域的ROC曲线下面积值均大于0.8,表明所选驱动因子对土地利用的解释能力较强,可用来估算土地利用概率分布;② 2010年各地类模拟结果经验证得Kappa系数分别为水田0.9、旱地0.92、林地0.97、草地0.84、建设用地0.85和水域0.77,总体上能满足模拟与预测需求;③ 多情景模拟显示库区不同土地利用类型在空间上的竞争关系,以及所带来的对库区粮食安全、移民建设、生态保护的影响,包括水田大量转换为旱地（“水改旱”）、耕地与林草地被建设占用、林草地开垦为耕地、陡坡耕地退为林草地等行为,需要在土地利用优化中平衡各方面的需求;④ 多因素、多情景模拟能为库区土地利用提供更为清晰的、可供抉择的政策调控思路。     

重庆三峡库区水环境研究

重庆三峡库区水环境质量好坏直接关系三峡库区乃至长江流域经济社会和环境的可持续发展,也是三峡水利枢纽工程是否成功的重要标志。目前,重庆三峡库区水质总体保持Ⅱ~Ⅲ类水质,无明显恶化趋势,但随着三峡水利枢纽工程建成蓄水,水环境形势将十分严峻。在深入剖析水环境存在的主要问题以及形成原因的基础上,指出工业污水、固体废物、生活垃圾、农业非点源污染是造成近年来水环境污染加重的主要原因,最后提出了可持续水环境保护的对策。     

柴达木盆地西部鄂博梁Ⅱ号构造深层卤水储层特征与锂硼资源富集成因

鄂博梁Ⅱ号构造是柴达木盆地西部鄂博梁Ⅰ-Ⅲ号褶皱带中的一个局部构造,在古新世—上新世以来主要为河流泛滥平原相、滨浅湖相和深湖相构造环境,在“高山深盆”的构造环境下,接受了大量造山带物源碎屑补给并赋存卤水矿床。通过对钻孔岩性、孔隙度、给水度、地球物理测井等数据进行分析,总结下油砂山组下部和干柴沟组地层是区内相对较好的深层卤水赋存层位,可作为深层卤水的重点探矿层位进一步勘查。同时,鄂博梁Ⅱ号构造钻孔深层卤水化学组成及特征系数分析结果显示,该水体为低矿化度(平均值为73.00 g/L)、Na⁺、Cl-为主的卤水,其中Li、B等元素含量达到边界品位以上,Br、I元素含量也达到或接近综合利用标准,具有较好的深层卤水找矿前景;卤水的成因为柴达木盆地周缘中新生代以来深部火山热泉补给、造山带火山岩物质风化和溶滤盐岩富集成矿。     

测井资料在碳酸盐岩储层评价中的应用

以塔河油田碳酸盐岩储集层基本特征为依据，利用常规和能谱测井资料信息比值法和重叠法等技术．致力于储集层缝、孔、洞测井响应特征敏感性评价研究，从中提取8项储层敏感性参数，并对其进行综合评判，确定出划分储层类别的标准，经过50口井的测试资料验证，采用多参数综合评判来划分储层类别是可行的，对储层的评价效果较好，使常规测井资料得到了更深入、广泛的应用。     

中国海相油气田勘探实例(之一) 四川盆地罗家寨大型气田的发现和探明

罗家寨气田发现于2000年,是四川盆地迄今为止发现的储量规模最大的一个气田,2002年探明储量为581.08×108m3。其下三叠统飞仙关组储层由碳酸盐岩蒸发台地边缘优质鲕粒滩白云岩构成,圈闭面积大,构造幅度高,具有一定的埋藏隐蔽性。论述了气田的发现和探明过程,气藏地质的特征,以及对碳酸盐岩气藏勘探的启示。     

Characteristics of boundary fault systems and its hydrocarbon controlling on hydrocarbon accumulation in Awati Sag,Tarim Basin,China

Based on the interpretation of two-dimensional seismic data, this paper analyzes the characteristics of three boundary fault systems including the Shajingzi fault, the Aqia fault and the Tumuxiuke fault around the Awati sag of the Tarim Basin, and studies its controlling on hydrocarbon accumulation. Neotectonic movement is ubiquitous in oil and gas bearing basins in China, such as Neogene intense activities of large boundary thrusting faults of the Awati sag: Shajingzi fault, Aqia fault and Tumuxiuke fault. Based on a large number of seismic data, it is showed that they have section wise characteristics in the direction of fault strike, and active periods and associated structures formed of different sections are different. Usually, large anticlinal structures are formed in the upper wall, and faulted anticline controlled by companion faults are formed in the bottom wall. Large faults cut the strata from Cambrian up to Neogene. For the anticline in the upper wall, fault activities caused by neotectonic movement played a destructive role in hydrocarbon accumulation, thus the preservation condition is critical for reservoir formation. In this sense, attention should be paid to formations in the upper walls of Aqia fault and Tumuxiuke fault under the Cambrian salt bed, whose plastic deformation could help to heal faults. Companion faults in the bottom wall cut down to the Cambrian and up to the Triassic serving as the pathway for hydrocarbon migration, and associated structures in the bottom wall are noteworthy exploration targets.©2019 China Geology Editorial Office.     

脱气温度和样品粒径对致密砂岩低温氮气吸附实验结果的影响

基于静态体积法的低温氮气吸附实验已广泛用于分析致密储集层的孔隙结构。本文探索了脱气温度和样品粒径对松辽盆地高台子致密砂岩低温氮气吸附实验结果的影响。结果显示,110℃的脱气条件并不能清除束缚水而使得孔隙体积、比表面积均偏低,300℃的脱气条件容易破坏样品中黏土矿物的结构令孔隙体积、比表面积减小,200℃是比较合适的脱气温度,既能去除束缚水又不破坏黏土矿物结构。样品粒径从5～10目减小至10～30目,氮气探测的孔隙数量增多使比表面积、孔体积增大。从10～30目减小至180～200目,黏土矿物相对含量降低令比表面积、孔体积显著减小;小于200目的样品中减少的黏土矿物主要集中在大于200目的岩样中,因此大于200目岩样的测定结果最高。因此,10～30目是利用低温氮气吸附实验寻求分析致密砂岩储集层特征的最佳粒径范围。