SSP“双碳”路径下赣江流域径流变化趋势

根据共享社会经济情景（SSPs）分为“双碳”路径（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0）和“高碳”路径（SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)。在碳达峰（2028—2032年）和碳中和（2058—2062年）两个时期,采用5个气候模式,7个情景驱动SWAT水文模型,分析赣江流域径流演变特征,主要结论如下：1961—2017年赣江流域观测到的年均气温以0.17℃/(10 a)的速率呈显著上升趋势（p<0.01),降水以17 mm/(10 a)的速率呈不显著上升。“双碳”和“高碳”路径下,2021—2100年赣江流域均呈现暖湿态,气温持续变暖,降水有所增加;碳达峰、碳中和时期,“双碳”路径下年径流呈现增加趋势;“双碳”路径下,月径流在汛期呈现增加趋势,枯水期在SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4下呈现增加趋势,在SSP4-6.0下呈现减少趋势。“双碳”路径下极端水文事件强度将可能小于“高碳”路径。     

中国区域1961~2010年降水集中指数(PCI)的变化及月分配特征

降水的年内变化(月分配和季节变化)对农作物生长、水资源利用及管理具有重要意义,同时也是增暖背景下水循环发生变化的关键过程之一。降水集中指数(PCI,Precipitation Concentration Index)能较好的表征降水的年内集中程度,被广泛应用于相关研究。本文利用中国583个站点1961~2010年的逐月降水和气温观测资料,对中国及各典型区域的PCI进行了计算分析,研究了PCI的气候特征、变化趋势、降水月分配变化及PCI与气温季节较差的关系。结果表明,我国PCI的气候态呈现出由东南向西北逐渐递增的空间分布格局。湿润区PCI在11~17之间,年内降水较为均匀;半湿润区PCI为17~24;半干旱区PCI在24~27之间;而干旱区PCI则由27至47不等,降水集中程度较高。除华南地区外,1961~2010年间全国大部分地区PCI均呈现显著的下降趋势,并于1980年前后发生跃变,降水集中程度大幅降低,其中西北西部地区PCI 下降速率最大,为－2.47 (10 a-1)。华南地区PCI的变化则具有明显的阶段性特征,2003年以前呈弱的下降趋势,但2003年PCI发生突变,降水集中程度大幅增加。对典型区域的比较发现,干旱半干旱区和青藏高原降水集中程度的降低主要表现在夏季降水占全年总降水量比例的减小;而湿润区PCI和降水月分配的变化则存在明显的区域性差异,其中西南地区8~12月降水占全年降水的比例减少,而长江中下游及华南地区春秋季降水占全年降水的比例减小,冬夏季降水所占比例增大。     

老挝中-东部大型铁铜金矿矿集区矿床地质--对云南"三江"地区找金的启示

矿集区分布在NW向川塘-长山华力西断皱带南西缘，系多陆块拼接缝合构造环境。印支-燕山期-喜马拉雅期花岗岩类岩浆活动及其相关的成矿作用，通过高效率浓集机制，形成一串锡、铁、铜、金等矽卡岩型、斑岩型和热液型矿床，组成矿床系列，包括多个超大型、大型矿床。这些成因上密切相关的矿床，成矿时间显然相近，却处在不同岩浆活动阶段和不同地质环境中，矿化特征有明显差异，矿种和矿化类型在时空分布上具有规律：印支-燕山期的花岗岩侵入阶段形成矽卡岩型富磁铁矿矿床；在花岗岩浆分异演化浅成相侵入阶段，形成矽卡岩型及岩浆晚期、自交代产生的斑岩型；而最后形成岩浆期后热液型铁-金、铜、金矿床。文章侧重讨论铁、铜、金矿床系列的成矿构造环境、岩浆作用、物质来源及高效率浓集机制，对云南“三江”地区找金有重要启示。     

Influence of shear speed and normal stress on the shear behavior and shear zone structure of granular materials in naturally drained ring shear tests

“Sliding Surface Liquefaction” is a process causing strength loss and consequent rapid motion and long runout of certain landslides. Using a new ring shear apparatus with a transparent shear-box and digital video camera system, shear-speed-controlled tests were conducted on mixed grains (mixture of three different sizes of sand and gravel) and mixed beads to study shear behavior and shear zone development process under the naturally drained condition in which pore pressure is allowed to dissipate through the opened upper drainage valve during shearing. Higher excess pore water pressure and lower minimum apparent friction were observed in the tests where grain crushing was more extensive under higher normal stress and higher shear speed. Along with the diffusion of silty water generated by grain crushing, smaller particles were transported upward and downward from the shear zone. Concentration of larger grains to the central and upper part of the shear zone was confirmed by means of visual observation together with grain size analysis of sliced samples from several layers after the test. On the other hand, smaller particles were accumulated mostly below the layer where larger grains were accumulated. The reason why larger grains were accumulated into the shear zone may be interpreted as follows: grains under shearing are also subjected to vertical movement, the penetration resistance of larger grains into a layer of moving particles is smaller than that into the static layer. Therefore, larger grains tend to move into the layer of moving grains. At the same time, smaller particles can drop into the pores of underlying larger grains downward due to gravity.     

CONCENTRATION AND VELOCITY OF DEBRIS FLOWS

1 RESISTANCE TO WATER-STONE FLOW As a special sort of debris flow, water-stone flow, or as generally called, sub-viscous debris flow, always occurs in channel of steep slope, dominantly in composition of coarse grains of bedload and laminated load with less suspended load. In some literature, water-stone flow is defined for convenience of study as that without suspended fine grains in composition, and it follows from this definition that transportation concentration of this kind of …     

基于动态模拟视角与共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评价

作为可持续发展的重要主题之一,科学评估县域可持续发展潜力是制定县域发展战略的基础。现有可持续发展潜力评估方法多是基于县域发展现状的多维度综合分析,在体现发展的动态性上仍存在不足。本文构建了面向联合国2030年可持续发展目标的县域可持续发展潜力指标体系,采用系统动力学和FLUS模型对发展潜力指标进行预测,提出了一种结合共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评估方法。本文以山东省招远市作为案例区,基于2009—2018年的社会经济以及土地利用数据,通过模拟2030年招远市基准情景、SSP1、SSP2、SSP3、SSP5共5种情景下的县域发展态势,对比评估了实验区可持续发展潜力的差异性。结果表明：(1)经济发展、居民福祉维度的多数指标在所有情景下均呈增长趋势,而生态维度指标则呈显著的下降趋势;(2)相比2018年,SSP1、SSP2情景下县域发展潜力均值分别提升了17.36%、9.80%,而在SSP3、SSP5情景下分别下降了0.50%、4.20%,可见,SSP1情景能够最大限度提升招远市发展可持续性,SSP5则将产生显著的负面影响;(3)招远市未来发展应持续优化SSP1路径,重点关注不...     

花岗岩晶质铀矿的产出概况及其富集因素的初步研究

本文采用人工重砂法调查了同内花岗岩体中晶质铀矿的含量。初步证明,花岗岩内主要的脉型铀矿床、矿田都位于晶质铀矿含量高的(大于5g/t)花岗告体内。晶质铀矿在花岗岩岩浆中的富集,需要四方面因素的配合:重熔母岩相对富铀;重熔规模大,充分分异演化;铀含量高,钍含量低,以及REE、Nb、Ta、zr、P等含量相对较低;成岩时氧逸度较低。确定花岗岩中是否含晶质铀矿(并结合岩体出露面积大小)是判断该岩体是否具产铀潜力的最关键的依据。但由于品质铀矿有时在岩体中分布不很均匀,因而最好能有3个以上样品的测定值,以便对该岩体能否作为铀源体作出确凿的判断。     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.