2012—2016年宁波市中暑流行特征及热浪对其影响分析

城市高温热浪事件严重影响人体健康和生命安全已成共识。利用宁波市2012—2016年中暑病例数据和同期气候数据对宁波市夏半年中暑流行特征及热浪对其的影响作了相关分析。结果表明:2012—2016年,2012年和2013年中暑人数最多,并集中在6—8月,其中7月人数最多占比55. 3%;男性中暑概率明显高于女性,中暑程度主要集中在轻度中暑,31—60岁年龄段中暑人数占比最高,市区中暑人数占比要高于郊区(县);用温湿两要素结合的炎热指数和热浪公式定义宁波热浪过程,发现热浪天数和中暑人数的相关系数高达0. 898,选出7次热浪过程计算热浪中暑的相对危险度,发现除2013年以外其他年份热浪中暑的相对危险度均在10以下,2013年的3次热浪中暑的相对危险度分别为18. 1、21. 6和25. 8,这与2013年热浪出现相对频繁集中有关;同时通过这7次热浪过程的前、后段热浪中暑的相对危险度的比较,并未见明显的热浪滞后效应存在。     

高精度温度计在同层水温平行观测中的互相干扰现象

在2015年4月24日一次意外供电故障中,发现宁波地震台高精度温度计在井水温度同层平行观测中有明显的互相干扰现象。认为目前水温观测到的是水井内实际温度与传感器工作时的"升温值"之和,而"升温值"是动态值,其取决于每套仪器的系统特性,一般可能会在0.01℃以上;相互影响可能在0.005℃以上,如果是捆绑式平行观测可能会更高。所以水温测值的波动范围为10~(-4)℃的观测井中,这种干扰不可忽视,并可能影响前兆异常的提取。因此,在水温波动比较小的观测井(泉)中,不主张做同层平行对比观测。最好在一个传感器内安装2套探测温度装置,既免互相干扰,又可相互验证。     

Heterogeneous change patterns of water level for inland lakes in High Mountain Asia derived from multi‐mission satellite altimetry

High‐altitude inland lakes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are key indicators to climate change and variability as a result of mostly closed watersheds and minimal disturbance by human activities. However, examination of the spatial and temporal pattern of lake changes, especially for water‐level variations, is usually limited by poor accessibility of most lakes. Recently, satellite altimeters have demonstrated their potential to monitor water level changes of terrestrial water bodies including lakes and rivers. By combining multiple satellite altimetry data provided by the Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS) and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument on the NASA Ice, Cloud and land Elevation satellite (ICESat), this study examined water level changes of typical lakes in HMA at a longer timescale (in the 1990s and 2000s) compared with earlier studies on Tibetan lakes. Cross‐evaluation of the radar altimetry data from LEGOS and laser altimetry data from ICESat/GLAS shows that they were in good agreement in depicting inter‐annual, seasonal and abrupt changes of lake level. The long‐term altimetry measurements reveal that water‐level changes of the 18 lakes showed remarkable spatial and temporal patterns that were characterized by different trends, onsets of rapid rises and magnitudes of inter‐annual variations for different lakes. During the study period, lakes in the central and northern HMA (15 lakes) showed a general growth tendency, while lakes in South Tibet (three lakes) showed significant shrinking tendency. Lakes in Central Tibet experienced rapid and stable water‐level rises around mid‐1990s followed by slowing growth rates after 2006. In contrast, the water‐level rises of lakes in the northern and north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau were characterized by abrupt increases in specific years rather than gradual growth. Meteorological data based on station observations indicate that the annual changes of water level showed strongly correlated with precipitation and evaporation but may not evidently related to the glacier melting induced by global warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

季风涡旋对热带气旋生成影响的理想试验研究

利用新一代非静力平衡中尺度数值模式WRF_ARW（3.3.1版本）模拟季风涡旋中热带气旋生成的过程,从动力和热力作用两方面分析大尺度季风涡旋对热带气旋生成的影响。结果表明:从动力学角度来看,能提供较大环境场涡度的季风涡旋不利于扰动涡旋快速发展成热带气旋。初始阶段,由于季风涡旋尺度大,垂直涡度径向梯度弱。而垂直涡度径向梯度的强弱可以通过“涡度隔离”效应影响对流单体向涡旋中心的聚集合并过程。随着扰动的组织化,径向入流对涡度的平流作用越来越重要。对流单体相对最大风速半径的位置对热带气旋生成作用明显,当其集中在最大风速半径附近时涡旋容易快速发展。此外,环境场相对涡度与热带气旋的尺度存在显著正相关。初始尺度大的涡旋最终具有较大的外围尺度,其涡度的分布范围也更广。从热力学角度来说,较大的环境场相对湿度有利于热带气旋的生成。虽然较大的环境场湿度能够诱发较强的外围对流,但同时也会使最大风速半径以内存在丰富的对流,后者能够提供充分的内区非绝热加热,降低中心气压,促进涡旋发展。      

中国天气发生器模拟非降水变量的效果评估

文中介绍了天气发生器BCC/RCG-WG基于谐波分析和多变量平稳过程对最高气温、最低气温、日照时数、相对湿度和平均风速等5个非降水变量的模拟模型,并根据中国669个站点1971-2000年的逐日气候资料(降水、最高气温,最低气温、日照时数、相对湿度和平均风速)计算了各站点的非降水变量的模拟参数.根据计算的模拟参数对中国...     

伸展盆地构造热模拟时的一种新模式——高级McKenzie模式

作为一种重要的盆地类型,伸展盆地的构造热模拟研究发展迅速,McKenzie(1978)提出均匀纯剪切伸展模型后,又有简单剪切和纯剪-简单剪切模型等相继提出.随着地质体的三维数据应用日趋增多,伸展盆地构造热模拟时三维模型的建立就显得尤为重要了.高级McKenzie模式是当前学者们研究的热点之一,该模式先对伸展盆地的"计算...     

High energy radiation from the center of the local supercluster

Evidence in X-rays, gamma rays and ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHCR) suggests the existence of active centers in extragalactic space which eject high energy particles and quanta. A concentration of these highest energy sources in the direction of the Local Supercluster indicates that the brightest apparent magnitude AGN's such as 3C274 (M87), 3C273, 3C279 and Markarian 421 are the only candidate sources for this radiation. A theoretical model of mass creation in the Local Supercluster based on a Machian theory of gravitation is described as a possible mechanism for production of the high energy while at the same time allowing the AGN's to be at the relatively close distance of the Supercluster. The fact that infrared photons fill intergalactic space limits the distance to the UHCR sources at a little over twice the distance to the center of the Local Supercluster strongly localizing the highest energy radiation to this relatively close distance.     

5月南亚高压与云南地区夏季降水的关系

应用1961—2012年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和云南124个测站逐月降水资料,分析了5月南亚高压与云南夏季降水的关系,发现高压脊线位置与降水有显著的相关。利用滤波处理和合成分析方法,分析了5月南亚高压脊线位置变化及其异常与云南夏季降水异常的联系。结果表明:5月南亚高压脊线位置偏北(南)时,夏季云南降水偏多(少);5月南亚高压脊线位置和云南夏季降水都存在显著的年代际变化,去除年代际变化影响之后两者之间的年际变化相关较为显著。5月南亚高压脊线位置偏北年,夏季南亚高压强度偏弱、范围偏小,500 hPa上西太平洋副高东移南压、强度减弱。低层700 hPa上副高西伸加强、云南上空出现明显的风场辐合,反之亦然。5月脊线位置偏北年,夏季南海和西太平洋向云南输送水汽,而脊线偏南年没有明显的水汽来源。     

Policies governing the distribution of by-products from scientific and small-scale coastal whaling in Japan

The Japanese government is committed to resuming sustainable commercial whaling, both on the high seas and along the Japanese coastline. To this end scientific whaling programs are supported with public money and the byproducts of the catch are distributed to the public and utilized in a variety of ways. Here we review the policies which govern how these byproducts are disseminated within Japan, as well as how the population as a whole makes use of whale resources. Possibilities for the future, if and when the international moratorium on commercial whaling ends, are also discussed.     

高密度极尖区的形成原因

极尖区是太阳风进入磁层的一个重要窗口,极尖区密度是反映这一物理过程的重要参量,通常情况下极尖区密度约为1~10 cm^-3,但有时卫星会观测到密度大于40 cm^-3的极尖区,本文称之为高密度极尖区.我们分析了Cluster卫星2001—2009年的观测数据,在470个极尖区穿越中找到28个高密度极尖区穿越事件并进行了统计研究,分析了高密度极尖区事件的形成原因,进而讨论了太阳风高效地进入极尖区的外部条件.结果表明：距正午的距离（｜MLT-12｜）较小,太阳风的密度高,低纬有磁层顶磁重联发生以及正偶极倾角都是观测到高密度极尖区事件的有利条件,并且当同时满足上述4个条件时,高密度极尖区事件发生率为100%;而低纬磁层顶磁重联以及大的正偶极倾角被认为是太阳风高效地进入极尖区的重要条件.这些研究结果有助于我们更进一步地理解太阳风进入极尖区的物理机制.