高分三号山地冰川表面运动提取与分析

冰川表面运动提取在冰川动力学与物质平衡变化研究中具有重要意义。针对当前我国自主遥感卫星数据在冰川运动监测应用中存在的不足,选用GF-3卫星FSI模式下获取的2019—2020年间覆盖亚洲高山区典型冰川的SAR数据,借助并行化偏移量跟踪算法获取了研究区冰川表面流速分布。研究结果表明：优化后的偏移量跟踪算法极大地提高了运行效率;全局形变拟合估计、地形偏差校正及滤波降噪后,冰川运动分布形态更加直观,精度可达0.5 m;通过与准同期Landsat-8影像提取的冰川流速对比以及对非冰川区位移残差的统计分析,验证了GF-3影像在监测不同区域冰川流速结果方面的可靠性及适用性;GF-3影像凭借其良好的空间分辨率,在规模较小、运动缓慢的冰川运动提取方面具有显著的优势,能够更好地体现冰川运动细节信息及其差异性。该研究有助于分析气候变化背景下青藏高原地区冰川的运动规律及其时空演变特征。     

京津冀地区一次严重霾天气过程及其影响因素分析

利用大气污染监测资料、常规气象观测资料及NCEP再分析资料,对2013年1月9—17日京津冀地区一次严重霾天气过程的特征及其与气象条件的关系进行分析。结果表明：此次霾天气过程京津冀地区6个城市（北京、天津、石家庄、保定、邯郸、唐山）的PM10、SO2和NO2污染物日平均浓度均较高,变化趋势基本相同,其中PM10日平均浓度的变化幅度最大,峰值出现在11—13日之间;石家庄、保定和邯郸市的污染最严重,PM10日平均浓度最大值分别为0.94 mg·m－3、0.95 mg·m－3和0.82 mg·m－3。SO2和NO2日平均浓度的变化幅度较小,但浓度值均较大,基本为0.10 mg·m－3以上。影响此次霾天气过程的大范围环流形势为纬向型,存在较强的逆温层,弱下沉运动使近地层大气处于静稳状态,不利于污染物扩散,而近地面较小的风速和低层相对湿度小于90％为霾的形成提供了有利条件。另外,后向轨迹分析表明,此次污染过程京津冀地区的气团主要来自新疆地区,路径主要是从西北气流转为西南气流,携带南方的湿空气和污染物向京津冀地区输送。     

Impact of the spatial resolution of climatic data and soil physical properties on regional corn yield predictions using the STICS crop model

The assimilation of Earth observation (EO) data into crop models has proven to be an efficient way to improve yield prediction at a regional scale by estimating key unknown crop management practices. However, the efficiency of prediction depends on the uncertainty associated with the data provided to crop models, particularly climatic data and soil physical properties. In this study, the performance of the STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) crop model for predicting corn yield after assimilation of leaf area index derived from EO data was evaluated under different scenarios. The scenarios were designed to examine the impact of using fine-resolution soil physical properties, as well as the impact of using climatic data from either one or four weather stations across the region of interest. The results indicate that when only one weather station was used, the average annual yield by producer was predicted well (absolute error <5%), but the spatial variability lacked accuracy (root mean square error = 1.3 t ha⁻¹). The model root mean square error for yield prediction was highly correlated with the distance between the weather stations and the fields, for distances smaller than 10 km, and reached 0.5 t ha⁻¹ for a 5-km distance when fine-resolution soil properties were used. When four weather stations were used, no significant improvement in model performance was observed. This was because of a marginal decrease (30%) in the average distance between fields and weather stations (from 10 to 7 km). However, the yield predictions were improved by approximately 15% with fine-resolution soil properties regardless of the number of weather stations used. The impact of the uncertainty associated with the EO-derived soil textures and the impact of alterations in rainfall distribution were also evaluated. A variation of about 10% in any of the soil physical textures resulted in a change in dry yield of 0.4 t ha⁻¹. Changes in rainfall distribution between two abundant rainfalls during the growing season led to a significant change in yield (0.5 t ha⁻¹ on average). Our results highlight the importance of using fine-resolution gridded daily precipitation data to capture spatial variations of rainfall as well as using fine-resolution soil properties instead of coarse-resolution soil properties from the Canadian soil dataset, especially for regions with high pedodiversity.     

浅层地震勘探方法在活动断层中的应用——以邯郸市活动断层探测为例

浅层地震勘探方法在城市活动断层探测中发挥着重要作用,实践表明,浅层地震反射波法可以获取深度十米至几十米的浅层地层反射信号,且大部分反射剖面均可较清楚地揭示出浅部断层位置和断层特征,地震数据处理是准确识别近地表活动断层的重要环节,也是提高资料分辨率和信噪比的有效途径。本文应用邯郸市活动断层浅层地震资料,运用多途径、分步骤的去噪技术和方法,压制干扰,极大地提高了资料的分辨率和信噪比,并对活动断层的典型剖面进行重点研究和验证。     

High pressure elasticity and phase transformation in brucite, Mg(OH)2

The first pressure derivatives of the second-order elastic constants have been calculated for brucite, Mg(OH)₂ from the second- and third-order elastic constants. The deformation theory and finite strain elasticity theory have been used to obtain the second- and third-order elastic constants of Mg(OH)₂ from the strain energy of the lattice. The strain energy ϕ is calculated by taking into account the interactions up to third nearest neighbors in the Mg(OH)₂ lattice. ϕ is then compared with the strain dependent lattice energy from continuum model approximation to obtain the expressions of elastic constants. The complete set of six second-order elastic constants C _IJ of brucite exhibits large anisotropy. Since C ₃₃ (= 21.6 GPa), which corresponds to the strength of the material along the c-axis direction, is less than the longitudinal mode C ₁₁ (= 156.7 GPa), the interlayer binding forces are weaker than the binding forces along the basal plane of Mg(OH)₂. The 14 nonvanishing components of the third-order elastic constants, C _IJK , of brucite have been obtained. All the C _IJK of brucite are negative except the values of C ₁₁₄ (= 230.36 GPa), C ₁₂₄ (= 75.45 GPa) and C ₁₃₄ (= 36.98 GPa). The absolute values of the C _IJK are, in general, one order of magnitude greater than the C _IJ ’s in the Mg(OH)₂ system as usually expected for a crystalline material. To our knowledge, no previous data are available to compare the pressure derivatives of brucite. The pressure derivatives of the two components viz., C ₁₄ and C ₃₃ become negative indicating an elastic instability in brucite while under pressure. This may be related to the phase transition of brucite largely involving rearrangements of H atoms revealed in the Raman spectroscopic, powder neutron diffraction and synchrotron X-ray diffraction studies.     

POLAR investigation of the Sun—POLARIS

The POLAR Investigation of the Sun (POLARIS) mission uses a combination of a gravity assist and solar sail propulsion to place a spacecraft in a 0.48 AU circular orbit around the Sun with an inclination of 75° with respect to solar equator. This challenging orbit is made possible by the challenging development of solar sail propulsion. This first extended view of the high-latitude regions of the Sun will enable crucial observations not possible from the ecliptic viewpoint or from Solar Orbiter. While Solar Orbiter would give the first glimpse of the high latitude magnetic field and flows to probe the solar dynamo, it does not have sufficient viewing of the polar regions to achieve POLARIS’s primary objective: determining the relation between the magnetism and dynamics of the Sun’s polar regions and the solar cycle.

Identifying Galactic PeVatrons with neutrinos

We perform a realistic evaluation of the potential of IceCube, a kilometer-scale neutrino detector under construction at the South Pole, to detect neutrinos in the direction of the potential accelerators of the Galactic cosmic rays. We take fully account of the fact that the measurement of the energy of the secondary muons at the detector can be used to further discriminate between the signal and the background of atmospheric neutrinos. A PeVatron is defined as the accelerator of cosmic rays with energies of several PeV, the knee in the spectrum; it has a hard energy spectrum and produces secondary photons of hundreds of GeV on the interstellar medium. Assuming that the Milagro sources are PeVatrons, an IceCube analysis combining the information from the different sources can reveal them as such at the 3σ level in one year and at the 5σ level in three years. We discuss the dependence of these expectations on the considerable ambiguities associated with the source spectra.     

Extremely high temperatures in France at the end of the century

Power plant construction requires anticipation to achieve a liable dimensioning on the long functioning time of the installation. In the present climate change context, dimensioning towards extremely high temperature for installations intended to run until the 2070s or later implies an evaluation of plausible extreme values at this time scale. This study is devoted to such an estimation for France, using both observation series and climate model simulation results. The climate model results are taken from the European PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects) project database of regional climate change scenarios for Europe. Comparison of high summer temperature distributions given by observations and climate models under current climate conditions, conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution, reveals that only a few models are able to correctly reproduce it. For these models, climate change under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios leads to differences in the variability of high values, whose proportion has an important impact on future 100-year return levels. This study was first presented at the EGU General Assembly in Vienna, 2–7 April 2006.     

梅汛期100hPa南亚高压特征与江苏梅雨关系研究

通过2002～2005年南亚高压特征指数、高空槽变化过程分析,讨论了南压高压对江苏梅雨期和主要降水落区的影响.并结合近15年南亚高压特征指数,探讨了不同梅雨年型的特征指数区域分布关系.同时利用2002～2005年45年NCEP 100 hPa高度场资料,分析了不同梅雨年型高空环流形势差异.得出:(1) 南亚高压特征指数变化和西风槽移动与江苏梅期(入梅、出梅、梅期、梅雨量和落区)特征有密切关系.(2) 梅雨期100 hPa南亚高压的平均特征对梅期特征和梅雨年型有很好的对应关系.6～7月和梅雨期间南亚高压脊线和东伸指数平均值对梅雨强度指数具有一定的预报指示意义.     

COMPARISONS OF THE WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE SOUTH ASIA HIGH BETWEEN NCEP/NCAR AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATASETS

Comparisons of the west Pacific subtropical high with the South Asia High are made using the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF 500 hPa and 100 hPa monthly boreal geopotential height fields for the period 1961 - 2000. Discrepancies are found for the time prior to 1980. The west Pacific subtropical high in the NCEP/NCAR data is less intense than in ECMWF data before 1980. The range and strength of the west Pacific subtropical high variation described by the NCEP/NCAR data are larger than those depicted by ECMWF data. The same situation appears in the 100-hPa geopotential field. These discoveries suggest that the interdecadal variation of the two systems as shown by the NCEP/NCAR data may not be true. Besides, the South Asia High center in the NCEP/NCAR data is obviously stronger than in the ECMWF data during the periods 1969, 1979 - 1991 and 1992 - 1995. Furthermore, the range is larger from 1992 to 1995.