黄河源区植被覆盖度对区域气候影响的数值模拟

利用1997-2006年8km空间分辨率的AVHRR/NDVI,得到了与区域气候模式RegCM3具有相同分辨率的植被覆盖度时间序列,并用其替代RegCM3模式中默认的植被覆盖度,对黄河源区主要气候要素进行了数值模拟。结果表明,使用卫星遥感估算的植被覆盖度,模拟的黄河源区气象台站月平均气温更接近实测值,局地降水量也有一定...     

大兴安岭西北部中新生代盆地群基底电性分带特征研究

位于大兴安岭西北部的中新生代盆地群(海拉尔、根河、漠河),其构造受到大兴安岭断裂、德尔布干断裂的控制,西北方向的蒙古-鄂霍茨克缝合带、南部西拉木伦河-延吉缝合带甚至更远的西太平洋板块运动、印度板块运动以及黑龙江中西部微板块间拼合等区域构造应力场叠加作用在该盆地群基底产生了复杂的深部构造特征.本文利用沿盆地群实施的4条(...     

Constrained polynomial fitting for recovery of regional gravity

Isolation of a regional field from a Bouguer map has always been an ambiguous and troublesome problem. It is often argued that the ambiguity arises from lack of specific criteria under which the problem may be formulated. In this paper, I show that by adopting Skeels’ definition of the regional field and its corollary, criteria needed to extract the field with minimum ambiguity may be developed. The definition and its corollary allow formulation of the regional field separation problem as a weighted (robustified) and constrained least‐square fitting problem with constraints extracted directly from the Bouguer map. To emphasize the constraints, I formulate the problem from the perspective of prior information constrained by observational data. The new formalism offers several advantages: weighted fitting is more robust than ordinary least squares fitting, providing a simple mechanism to eliminate data outliers and reduce the undesirable influence of local gravity disturbances. Introducing constraints into the fitting procedure effectively reduces ambiguity and increases the resolution of the fitted regional field. Moreover, imposing conditions on the fitted regional field directly from the Bouguer map is tantamount to incorporating prior information about the underlying geology and structure of the area with minimum human subjectivity. The procedure was tested on simulated and actual data sets with excellent results. Indeed the test results indicate that with properly placed constraints, the regional field may be recovered in a manner that closely emulates the graphical method.     

一个变网格大气环流模式对中国东部春季的区域气候模拟

将法国动力气象实验室发展的变网格全球大气环流模式LMDZ4在东亚地区进行加密,并使用ERA-40再分析资料进行环流强迫,对1958—2000年每年春季开展区域气候模拟,将模拟的4—5月气候平均态、年际和年代际变率与观测进行了对比。模式能够较为真实地模拟出4—5月东亚地区气候平均大气环流、降水和气温的空间分布,对对流层中、高层环流的模拟比对低层环流的模拟更接近于观测;模式对中国东部地区地面气候的模拟偏差主要表现为:中国中东部和华南地区偏暖偏湿,而华北则为偏冷偏湿。中东部地区的降水量比观测偏多约1.6mm/d;模拟的地表气温在华北偏低约1.4℃,在中东部和华南均偏高超过0.5℃。模式对降水的模拟偏差与其模拟的低层南支西南气流和北部西北气流均偏强有关。模式对中国东部对流层,尤其是对流层中上层大气环流的年际变化具有很好的再现能力,各物理量与观测值的相关系数都在0.6以上。模式也能很好地模拟出中国东部降水和气温的年际变率,在华北、中东部和华南,观测和模拟值在1958—2000年的相关系数均在0.7以上。模式还能够模拟出20世纪70年代末出现的中东部干旱和东北地区降水增多的年代际变化特征,也能够再现黄淮流域年代际增温的现...     

区域气候模式分辨率对中国夏季气温模拟影响的评估

为评估区域气候模式中分辨率对中国夏季气温模拟的影响,选用区域气候模式RegCM3,针对中国范围同一区域设置3种水平分辨率(30、60和90 km)和3种垂直分辨率(14、18和23层)就2000-2004年夏季地表气温进行模拟试验,采用模拟偏差、均方根误差、空间相关系数等多种参数,评估了气温模拟对分辨率的敏感性.结果表...     

Simulating pumping-induced regional land subsidence with the use of InSAR and field data in the Toluca Valley, Mexico

A multidisciplinary approach is presented here for quantifying land subsidence in a heavily pumped aquifer system with complex stratigraphy. The methodology consists in incorporating Terzaghi’s 1D instantaneous compaction principle into a 3D groundwater flow model that is then applied and calibrated to reproduce observed hydraulic heads and compaction for the Toluca Valley, Mexico. Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D-InSAR), a generated 3D-geological model, extensometers, monitoring wells, and available literature are used to constrain the model. The D-InSAR measured subsidence, extensometers, and numerical simulations of subsidence agree relatively well. Simulations show that since regional subsidence began in the mid 1960s there has been up to 2 m of subsidence in the industrial corridor, where heavy pumping and thick clay layers are found. This study shows that an approach using various sources of data is useful in estimating and constraining the vertical component of the inelastic skeletal specific storage.     

Network configurations and R&D activities of the ICT industry in Suzhou municipality, China

This paper analyzes the network structure and R&D activities of the information and communication technology (ICT) industry in Suzhou municipality, known previously for its local state-directed Sunan model of development. Suzhou, however, has been undergoing dramatic restructuring to remake itself into a globalizing production center. We highlight the significance of the Chinese state and local/regional assets in shaping the trajectories of globalization and regional development, and the increasing importance of domestic markets and regional clusters/agglomeration for foreign ventures. We have found that Suzhou’s development path, heavily dependent on external forces, has made Suzhou a TNC (transnational corporation) satellite district. We also find that the ICT industry in Suzhou has a dual-structure, segmented between foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) and domestic firms. TNCs tend to network among themselves and their interfirm networks are increasingly domestic and regionally embedded in the Yangtze River Delta, while the linkages between TNCs and local firms are weak. We argue that there is a series of technological, structural, spatial, and institutional “mismatches” that limits the establishment of “global pipelines” of knowledge exchange. We hold that the nature of global-local networks is contingent upon regional endogenous capacities and the specific ways in which global capital interacts with local institutions. Therefore, perspectives on TNCs’ local embeddedness must be positioned in their regional/external networks. We also analyze the constraints placed on Suzhou’s development into an innovative city and promote the integration of global and local/regional assets through development of indigenous capacities.     

Empowering NGOs? Long-term effects of ecological and institutional change on regional fisheries management organizations

The participation of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) in regional fisheries management organizations has inspired optimism among many observers and researchers about increasing the effectiveness of these regional organizations in managing highly migratory and straddling fish stocks sustainably. Others claim that the attendance of ENGOs in meetings of regional fisheries management organizations as accredited observers or as part of member state or cooperating non-member state delegations, could make decision-making complex, long, and inefficient. More generally, NGO participation has attracted broad scholarly interest in the study of interest groups and transnational advocacy in political science. Yet, we know little about the determinants of ENGO participation in meetings of regional fisheries management organizations in the first place. To fill this gap, this article develops a theoretical framework conceptualizing ENGO participation and developing expectations about how ecological and institutional change shapes ENGO participation. The framework deals with structural determinants of ENGO participation, as existing literature primarily has been preoccupied with the study of actor-specific explanations of specific NGOs’ impact in specific political processes. By contrast, we examine how ecological change – such as target fish stock health and biomass status – and institutional change – such as financial resources, membership composition of regional fisheries management organizations and participation by other non-state actors, such as experts and fishing industry representatives – shape ENGO participation. We empirically explore this framework in the context of seven regional fisheries management organizations. A dataset comprising yearly fish stock-level data on participation, institutional, and ecological factors, for 1980–2014, was compiled for our quantitative inquiry into the determinants of ENGO participation. We find robust evidence that institutional change shapes ENGO participation, but not ecological factors related to target fish stock health. We discuss our findings against the backdrop of ongoing debates about NGOs in political science, and spell out broader implications for future research on NGOs in regional fisheries management organizations.     

近百年中国气候变暖趋势之再评估

基于均一化的气温观测序列集,1900年以来中国气温升高趋势1.3—1.7℃/（100 a）。这个已用于新近的中国国家气候变化评估报告的结果,远高于早期的评估结果（0.5—0.8℃/（100 a））。回顾了始于20世纪80年代的中国百年气温序列的研究,指出其中关键进展在于近年来研发了均一化的长期站点气温观测序列集。早年构建的中国气温序列中,20世纪40年代前异常偏高,除了战乱期间观测缺失严重及记录代表性问题外,主要是50年代前后很多台站迁址导致早期气温观测值系统性偏高所致,从而低估长期变暖趋势。40年代前后部分区域确实偏暖,但由于不同区域气温波动位相不一致,因而大范围平均序列中并不明显。这一事实可与近年发展的“北极暖-大陆冷”等气候变化动力学理论以及一些区域气温代用资料相印证。近几十年城市化对中国气温变化趋势之贡献大小尚存争议,但远非主导因素。      

编篡中国区域地质志的基本要求——设想与愿景

国土资源部、中国地质调查局决定重编中国区域地质志,这是一个具有远见卓识的英明之举,是一项带有里程碑意义的战略性综合研究工作。为了创造有宏观影响的大成果,新编地质志应该在地质成果上做到大综合、大集成;在地质研究程度上有大幅度提高;在地质工作和经济社会发展中发挥大的作用;在地质规律的总结和认识上有大的提升;在国内外地质界产生大的影响。为了创造有宏观影响的大成果,必须在充分收集已有资料,忠实地记录地质事实基础上,实行八个结合:地质、地球物理、地球化学、遥感资料相结合;地表地质与深部地质相结合;大陆地质与海洋地质相结合;志书、图件与数据库相结合;科学性与艺术性相结合;综合研究与专题研究相结合;继承与创新相结合;编志与培养人才相结合。