AIDS NORTH AND SOUTH: DIFFUSION PATTERNS OF A GLOBAL EPIDEMIC AND A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR GEOGRAPHERS *

Apart from the tragic certainty of death which accompanies AIDS everywhere, the means of its transmission, the spatial patterns of its diffusion, and the groups at highest risk of infection vary considerably among world regions. This paper reviews the disease and its transmission, then proposes three models of AIDS diffusion to assess the implications of the epidemic on various regions. AIDS North, of North America and western Europe, is urban based and primarily confined to homosexuals and IV drug abusers. AIDS South, in central Africa and the Caribbean, is spreading from cities into rural regions and affects primarily heterosexuals. The third, an AIDS North/South hybrid, is postulated as a model of diffusion of the disease in other Third World regions. The final section addresses the potential contribution of geographic research to policy-makers in attempting to cope with the diffusion of AIDS and in curbing the epidemic's advance.     

CYGNSS海表风场观测数据验证及其可能的应用

海表面风场可以用于获取许多大气和海洋现象的信号,高质量、高时空分辨率的海表面风场数据产品将有利于海洋-大气动力过程的研究.本文使用全球热带系泊浮标阵列计划（Global Tropical Moored Array Programs）的锚定浮标风场数据和西沙通量塔气象观测资料验证了Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System （CYGNSS）的35°N~35°S海面遥感风场观测数据.结果表明,CYGNSS海表面风场与实测资料存在着2.17 m/s左右的平均均方根误差（RMSD）,它可能源于观测数据和卫星遥感资料的观测误差,以及两者在空间和时间上未严格匹配而引起的代表性误差.另外,CYGNSS海表面风速的时间演变与实测资料非常一致,展现了CYGNSS在研究海洋-大气能量和动量交换过程方面的潜在应用价值.本文使用Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO）和赤道东部印度洋上升流事件作为两个个例,说明了CYGNSS海表面风场资料的潜在应用价值.     

苏北一次强降水超级单体风暴过程的诊断分析

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、FY2C卫星和多普勒雷达资料,对2008年7月22日发生在苏北的一次强降水超级单体风暴过程进行诊断分析。天气分析显示,风暴发生于高湿、较低的抬升凝结高度、强对流不稳定(3 445 J/kg)和中到强的垂直风切变(0~6 km,18 m/s)环境,这种大气环境非常有利于强降水超级单体风暴的发生发展。雷达回波分析揭示,该超级单体的演化可归结为"孤立单体—经典强降水超级单体—减弱东移"三个阶段,持续时间超过2 h。强降水超级单体风暴成熟期,呈现出典型的倒"V"型缺口、中低层有界弱回波区和反射率因子大值区由低层向高层往低层入流一侧倾斜的特征,相应的雷达径向速度场显示在倒"V"型缺口附近的强降水区中存在一个成熟的中气旋。湿位涡的诊断结果表明:高层干冷空气侵入触发潜在对流不稳定能量释放,有利于对流运动的发展;中低层大气对流不稳定与条件对称不稳定共存,既有垂直对流,又有倾斜对流发生,同时边界层的偏东风入流向暴雨区提供充沛的水汽,对暴雨的发生发展起增幅作用。     

川西高原中部一次极端暴雪成因分析

利用0.5°×0.5°的ECWMF再分析资料,常规气象资料以及西南区域数值预报模式模拟等资料,应用天气分析和诊断方法,对2016年2月21日川西高原中东部的极端暴雪天气过程进行系统分析。结果表明:500hPa贝加尔湖横槽旋转南下使得冷空气并入川西高原中部的低槽中,其与西南暖湿气流交汇产生的锋生以及西南急流存在是此次暴雪天气产生的重要原因;随着副高的北进,此次强降雪开始之前有来自于孟加拉湾和南海的两支水汽输送,西南低空急流稳定维持为此次暴雪提供了充足的水汽。MPV2在此次暴雪过程中起到了重要作用;强降雪主要发生在SVD(Slantwise Vorticity Development)强烈发展的时段内,暴雪落区与SVD发展最强烈的区域重合;西南区域数值预报模式提前6h对此次暴雪的形势场和物理量场都做出了较为准确的预报,其中垂直速度和水汽条件预报与实况最吻合,但降水预报的量级较实况偏弱一个量级,强降水落区比强度预报更准确。     

基于Endlich迭代调整的全球流函数和速度势计算及风场分解与重建

本文将有限区域求解流函数和速度势的Endlich迭代调整方法(E-T方法)推广至全球区域,并与常用Guass-Seidel迭代求解Poisson方程方法(G-P方法)进行了比较。结果表明:E-T方法适应于全球流函数和速度势的计算,其由内向外调整,不需严格考虑边界条件,可消除边界对计算结果的影响;E-T方法能准确分解和重建原始风场,而由于极地边界和差分格式影响,G-P方法求得的旋转风和辐散风之和不能准确重建原始风场,尤其是经向为固定边界时,两极地附近重建风场误差非常明显;E-T方法与G-P方法另一重要差异是前者利用流函数和速度势与风场偏微分关系直接进行迭代求解,不需计算涡度和散度,不但保证了重建风场的准确性,还防止了涡度和散度计算误差带来的二次污染。     

The Spatial and Temporal Variability of Global Stratospheric Gravity Waves and Their Activity during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Revealed by COSMIC Measurements

This study investigates the spatial and temporal variability of global stratospheric gravity waves (GWs) and the characteristics of GW activity during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) using the GPS radio occultation measurements from the COSMIC mission during September 2006 to May 2013. Corresponding to the COSMIC RO observational window and analysis method, GW potential energy (Ep) with vertical scales no shorter than ～2 km is resolved. It is found that the distributions of GW Ep over 20-30 km and 30-38 km show similar spatial and seasonal variations. The variations of GW Ep with altitude and latitude along the westerly wind are identified in different seasons over 60°-80°W. In the middle and high latitudes, seasonal cycles are distinct in the time-latitude and time-altitude distributions of GW activities, which show larger Ep in winters when westerly wind dominates and smaller Ep in summers when easterly wind dominates. The influence of quasi-biennial oscillation on GW activity is recognized in the tropics. GW Ep enhances closely following the occurrence of minor SSW events; while during major events, GW Ep may not enhance, and sometimes may even weaken, in the regions where reversals of zonal wind occur, probably caused by the filtering impact of the 0 m s-1 wind level on the GWs.     

基于ECMWF产品福建省前汛期短时强降水预报方法

利用2014—2016年福建省1605个自动气象站逐时降水资料和ECMWF全球模式细网格预报产品,分析福建省前汛期短时强降水发生背景下模式预报物理量的分布特征,并基于阈值判定的方法建立短时强降水预报模型。结果表明:福建省内陆县市前汛期短时强降水发生频次较高,沿海县市发生频次低,且日变化特征表现出双峰结构。箱型图差异指数（I_bd）在评估相关变量对于区分短时强降水发生与否的敏感程度有较好的作用,比湿、整层可降水量等水汽变量I_bd最为显著,K指数、对流有效位能等变量的I_bd仅次于水汽变量,说明模式预报变量对于预测短时强降水有较好的表征作用。针对短时强降水事件的物理量集合,采用剔除异常值后的最小值作为判定阈值,通过训练集分析结果客观订正对流有效位能和3 h降水量两个高I_bd变量的阈值,建立潜势预报模型。对于福建省西部的关键区,检验集白天时段12 h时间分辨率预报TS评分可达0.5,夜间时段约为0.3。对于福建省进行分区建模预报,检验集预报结果显示白天时段比夜间准确率高、内陆县市比沿海县市准确率高。     

A Study on the Spatial Distribution of China’s Potential Foreign Cooperation on Grain from Geographical View

Further utilization of global agricultural resources and the expansion of potential international cooperation space are necessary measures to promote a new level of China’s national food security and optimize the structure of domestic food consumption. This study measured the global potential cultivated land area and national grain self-sufficiency. Based on the two-above measures, the authors made a classification of China’s foreign agricultural cooperation countries and depicted the spatial pattern of cooperation based on the grain trades of those countries with China. The grain exporters include Australia, North America, South America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia; and the target countries for “going abroad” of Chinese grain enterprises are mainly located in Sub-Saharan Africa and northern Latin America. This study proposes that China’s policy of cooperation on grain should be shifted to non-traditional partners alongside the “Belt and Road Initiative” region. Specifically, China could expand grain imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and other East European and Central Asian countries, and the direction for China’s agricultural enterprises “going abroad” should shift to Sub-Sahara Africa.     

A Quantitative Method of Detecting Transient Rossby Wave Phase Speed: No Evidence of Slowing Down with Global Warming

Based on the Complex Empirical Orthogonal Functions(CEOFs) of bandpass-filtered daily streamfunction fields, a quantitative method of detecting transient(synoptic) Rossby wave phase speed(RWPhS) is presented. The transient RWPhS can be objectively calculated by the distance between a high(or low) center in the real part of a CEOF mode and its counterpart in the imaginary part of the same CEOF mode divided by the time span between two adjacent peaks(or bottoms) of two principal component curves f...     

On the local multiscale determination of the Earth’s disturbing potential from discrete deflections of the vertical

As a first approximation, the Earth is a sphere; as a second approximation, it may be considered an ellipsoid of revolution. The deviations of the actual Earth’s gravity field from the ellipsoidal “normal” field are so small that they can be understood to be linear. The splitting of the Earth’s gravity field into a “normal” and a remaining small “disturbing” field considerably simplifies the problem of its determination. Under the assumption of an ellipsoidal Earth model, high observational accuracy is achievable only if the deviation (deflection of the vertical) of the physical plumb line, to which measurements refer, from the ellipsoidal normal is not ignored. Hence, the determination of the disturbing potential from known deflections of the vertical is a central problem of physical geodesy. In this paper, we propose a new, well-promising method for modelling the disturbing potential locally from the deflections of the vertical. Essential tools are integral formulae on the sphere based on Green’s function with respect to the Beltrami operator. The determination of the disturbing potential from deflections of the vertical is formulated as a multiscale procedure involving scale-dependent regularized versions of the surface gradient of the Green function. The modelling process is based on a multiscale framework by use of locally supported surface curl-free vector wavelets.