2015—2019年辽宁省暴雨红色预警信号分布及其特征

利用2015—2019年辽宁省发布的暴雨红色预警信号和1605个自动站的分钟级降水资料,统计暴雨红色预警信号和短时大暴雨年际变化和时空分布,分析暴雨红色预警信号的高分布区、易发时段。结果表明：2015—2017年辽宁省暴雨红色预警信号发布站数逐年递增,最大值出现在2017年,发布站数为147个;2015—2018年预警信号准确率提升,提前时间略减少,最低值为2018年,提前时间为19 min;2019年比2018年暴雨红色预警信号发布站数减少59个,提前时间增加29 min;暴雨红色预警信号的空间分布为东南部地区多、中部地区少;暴雨红色预警信号多在夜间发布;在辽宁省发布的50%以上的暴雨红色预警信号中,降水量达到预警发布标准的时间滞后于最大雨强出现时间90 min,最大雨强出现时间为暴雨红色预警信号发布的重要指标。为了达到防灾减灾的服务效果,发布暴雨红色预警信号时,应充分考虑最大雨强出现时间、发布时机、短时大暴雨高发区及地形的影响。     

Prediction of diagenetic facies using well logs – A case study from the upper Triassic Yanchang Formation,Ordos Basin,China

Understanding diagenetic heterogeneity in tight sandstone reservoirs is vital for hydrocarbon exploration. As a typical tight sandstone reservoir, the seventh unit of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin (Chang 7 unit), central China, is an important oil-producing interval. Results of helium porosity and permeability and petrographic assessment from thin sections, X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and cathodoluminescence analysis demonstrate that the sandstones have encountered various diagenetic processes encompassing mechanical and chemical compaction, cementation by carbonate, quartz, clay minerals, and dissolution of feldspar and lithic fragments. The sandstones comprise silt-to medium-grained lithic arkoses to feldspathic litharenites and litharenites, which have low porosity (0.5%–13.6%, with an average of 6.8%) and low permeability (0.009 × 10⁻³ μm² to 1.818 × 10⁻³ μm², with an average of 0.106 × 10⁻³ μm²).This study suggests that diagenetic facies identified from petrographic observations can be up-scaled by correlation with wire-line log responses, which can facilitate prediction of reservoir quality at a field-scale. Four diagenetic facies are determined based on petrographic features including intensity of compaction, cement types and amounts, and degree of dissolution. Unstable and labile components of sandstones can be identified by low bulk density and low gamma ray log values, and those sandstones show the highest reservoir quality. Tightly compacted sandstones/siltstones, which tend to have high gamma ray readings and relatively high bulk density values, show the poorest reservoir quality. A model based on principal component analysis (PCA) is built and show better prediction of diagenetic facies than biplots of well logs. The model is validated by blind testing log-predicted diagenetic facies against petrographic features from core samples of the Upper Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, which indicates it is a helpful predictive model.     

Basin modeling of the Late Miocene Zeit source rock in the Sudanese portion of Red Sea Basin: Implication for hydrocarbon generation and expulsion history

The Late Miocene Zeit Formation is exposed in the Red Sea Basin of Sudan and represents an important oil-source rock. In this study, five (5) exploratory wells along Red Sea Basin of Sudan are used to model the petroleum generation and expulsion history of the Zeit Formation. Burial/thermal models illustrate that the Red Sea is an extensional rift basin and initially developed during the Late Eocene to Oligocene. Heat flow models show that the present-day heat flow values in the area are between 60 and 109 mW/m². The variation in values of the heat flow can be linked to the raise in the geothermal gradient from margins of the basin towards offshore basin. The offshore basin is an axial area with thick burial depth, which is the principal heat flow source.The paleo-heat flow values of the basin are approximately from 95 to 260 mW/m², increased from Oligocene to Early Pliocene and then decreased exponentially prior to Late Pliocene. This high paleo-heat flow had a considerable effect on the source rock maturation and cooking of the organic matter. The maturity history models indicate that the Zeit Formation source rock passed the late oil-window and converted the oil generated to gas during the Late Miocene.The basin models also indicate that the petroleum was expelled from the Zeit source rock during the Late Miocene (>7 Ma) and it continues to present-day, with transformation ratio of more than 50%. Therefore, the Zeit Formation acts as an effective source rock where significant amounts of petroleum are expected to be generated in the Red Sea Basin.     

River bed stability versus clogged interstitial: Depth-dependent accumulation of substances in freshwater pearl mussel (Margaritifera margaritifera L.) habitats in Austrian streams as a function of hydromorphological parameters

Substrate conditions are considered crucial for the survival of juvenile freshwater pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera L.) – and therefore for the recovery of overaged populations in danger of extinction – as fine sediments can clog the interstitial habitat and hamper water and oxygen circulation to the juveniles. Watercourses and their bed sediments must meet two seemingly diametrically opposite requirements in order to offer the freshwater pearl mussel appropriate habitats: stable substrates for all live stages and an unclogged interstitial for the juveniles. As only few scientific publications deal with subsurface conditions in pearl mussel brooks, the present preliminary study tries to contribute to this topic by compiling a variety of chemical and hydromorphological data from several Austrian watercourses with distinctly different characteristics. It was clearly shown that discharge patterns, hydraulic pressure, water depths and flow velocities affect both river bed stability and the perfusion of the hyporheic zone: In an artificial millrace with permanent low flow conditions and a permanently stable substrate a distinct barrier was detected within the first 5 cm substrate depth that totally blocks the interchange between surface and interstitial water, resulting in an accumulation of substances of all kinds, among them potentially toxic substances. Such a barrier was also found to be building up in several natural watercourses, clearly indicating the danger of adverse land-use and of long-term low flow conditions in smaller brooks (given that the local decrease in precipitation, proven in long-term studies, proceeds). Significant differences in substrate concentrations in the interstitial water were detected between watercourses, whereas chemical conditions in the surface water exhibited no differences at all. An accompanying biomonitoring study showed high survival rates all over the study area, indicating the suitability of juvenile freshwater pearl mussels as bioindicators in terms of surface water, but not of interstitial water.     

Peak discharge increase in hyperconcentrated floods

The peak of river floods usually decreases in the downstream direction unless it is compensated by freshwater inflow from tributaries. In the Yellow River (China) the opposite is regularly observed, where the peak discharge of river floods increases in the downstream direction (at a rate far exceeding the contribution from tributaries). This flood peak discharge increase is probably related to rapid morphological changes, to a modified bed friction, or to a combination of both. Yet the relative role of these processes is still poorly understood. This paper aims to analyze the relative contribution of bed erosion and friction change to the peak discharge increase, based on available data and a recently developed numerical model. Using this high-resolution, fully coupled morphodynamic model of non-capacity sediment transport, two hyperconcentrated floods characterized by downstream peak discharge increase are numerically reproduced and analyzed in detail. The results reveal that although erosion effects may contribute to the downstream discharge increase (especially in case of extreme erosion), for most cases the increase must be mainly due to a reduction in bed friction during peak discharge conditions. Additionally, based on the concept of channel storage reduction, the effects of decreasing bed friction and (very strong) bed erosion can be integrated in explaining the peak discharge increase.     

Analytical model of well leakage pressure perturbations in a closed aquifer system

Deep saline aquifers are commonly used for disposal and storage of various surface fluids. The target injection zone must be hydraulically isolated from overlying zones in order to ensure containment of the injected fluids. Improperly plugged nonoperational abandoned wells that penetrate the injection zone are the main potential leakage pathways. Leakage through such wells may cause an observable pressure signal in a zone overlying the injection zone; such a signal can be used to detect the leakage. In this paper we develop an analytical model to evaluate the pressure change induced by leakage through a well in a multilayer system. Unlike previous analytical models on the topic, our model uses a closed system, which may significantly affect the strength and behavior of the pressure signal induced by leakage. The analytical model is first presented for a two-layer system centered at the leaky well location. We evaluate the leakage-induced pressure change using the Laplace transform of Duhamel’s superposition integral, yielding the solution in the Laplace domain. We then derive a late-time asymptotic solution using the final value theorem, which suggests that the leakage rate becomes constant after sufficient time. We then obtain the multilayer solution by extending the two-layer solution and presenting it in matrix form in the Laplace domain. We apply the solution to three examples. In the first example, we apply the analytical model to a two-layer system, investigating its behavior and comparing the results with a numerical solution. In order to demonstrate behavior and potential applications of the multilayer analytical model, we present two multilayer examples: one with identical layers and another, replicating a CO₂ storage site, with dissimilar layers. The leakage-induced pressure change does not necessarily decrease as the distance increases from the injection zone toward the surface.     

Study on changes in bed characteristics and friction factor in the presence of wash load in suspension

Results of an experimental study on the effects of different concentrations of wash load on the size of bed features and resistance to flow in a laboratory flume are presented. The experiments were carried out under different hydraulic conditions in a 30 m long, 0.204 m wide and 0.5 m deep tilting flume under clear water condition and in the presence of different concentration of wash load in the flow. The bed material used consisted of uniform sediment of size 0.96 mm. Analysis of the data indicates that the characteristics of the bed features change and friction factor increases in the presence of different concentration of wash load in the flow. The reasons for changes in the characteristics of the bed features and increase in friction factor in the presence of wash load are identified and a relationship for predicting friction factor in the presence of wash load has been established.     

川西坳陷新页HF-1井须五段泥页岩吸附气含量主控因素及其定量预测模型

页岩气是一种重要的非常规天然气,其中相当一部分的天然气以吸附态存在。吸附气含量是页岩气资源评价和目标区优选的关键性参数,也是评价页岩是否具有经济开采价值的一个重要标准。为了探讨川西坳陷新页HF-1井须五段泥页岩吸附气含量主控因素,选取了该井须五段泥页岩样品进行同一温度下的等温吸附实验,获得页岩等温吸附特征曲线及Langmuir体积和Langmuir压力值,分析压力对页岩吸附气含量的影响程度,利用Langmuir模型计算地层压力条件下的吸附气含量。利用实验数据分析了新页HF-1井须五段泥页岩吸附气含量与比表面积、孔隙度、密度、成熟度、湿度和压力各单因素之间的相关关系,然后运用SPSS软件对吸附气含量的几个影响因素进行了主成分分析。结果表明：比表面积、湿度和压力是影响新页HF-1井须五段泥页岩吸附气含量的主要因素。最后建立了同时考虑这3个主控因素的页岩吸附气含量计算新模型。通过新模型可以计算出新页HF-1井须五段未知泥页岩的吸附气含量,计算结果与实测值之间相关系数高,结果准确可靠,是一种评价等温条件下页岩吸附气含量的好方法,对页岩吸附气含量评价具有一定的指导意义。     

三种红层岩石常规三轴压缩下的强度与变形特性研究

利用MTS815Teststar程控伺服岩石力学试验系统研究了川东地区一红层边坡中的砂岩、粉砂岩和泥岩围压为03MPa的应力-应变全过程曲线,建立了峰值强度、峰值强度前弹性模量以及峰值强度后的弹性模量和围压的关系。将低围压下红层的全应力-应变曲线概化成5个阶段,分别为压密段、弹性段、屈服段、应变软化段和塑性流动阶段。试验结果得出,红层弹性模量随围压的增加而提高且变化明显,砂岩和粉砂岩在此围压内为脆性破坏,泥岩为塑性破坏的规律。     

楔形体破坏模式下红层边坡岩体质量SMR法评价

简要介绍了边坡岩体质量分类的SMR法,将之应用于2个典型楔形体破坏模式下红层岩体高边坡稳定性宏观评价。 指出在评价过程中要注意对边坡起控制作用的优势结构面,并将其作为SMR法中结构面项评分的主要依据,这样得出的评分 值与边坡的实际情况才会比较相符。对地应力的影响进行了定性的分析,指出高地应力地区边坡SMR法应该慎用。