PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

坡度随水平分辨率变化及其空间格局研究

以黄土丘陵沟壑区的县南沟流域为研究区,基于1∶1万地形图,利用ANUDEM软件生成5m到200m分辨率DEM,并利用Arc/Info中计算坡度的方法提取了各种分辨率的坡度。研究表明,随着DEM分辨率的降低,单个样点坡度值表现出不确定性,但同一坡度级所有栅格点的坡度均值呈现一定的规律性,低坡度段表现为先升高后降低,中坡度段呈现微弱变化,陡坡度段呈现对数降低趋势;沟沿线上坡度值呈比较剧烈的下降趋势、分水线和流水线上坡度缓慢下降。     

基于粒子群算法与混合罚函数法的有限元优化反演模型及应用

岩土工程优化反分析是一个典型的复杂非线性函数优化问题,采用全局优化算法是解决这个问题的理想途径。针对常规反演方法应用于岩土工程参数反演时搜索效率低的缺点,结合粒子群算法和遗传算法的特点,充分考虑二者的互补性,提出一种效率较高的全局优化算法,以测点的实测值与计算值建立一种新的评价函数,将多目标优化问题转化为单目标优化问题,用混合罚函数法将约束问题变为无约束问题,构建了一种新的目标函数,将有限元程序ABAQUS作为一个模块嵌入到优化算法程序中,编制了有限元优化反演分析程序。并给出了应用实例验证了该法的有效性和实用性,是一种可行的参数反演方法,可应用于实际工程中复杂岩土介质初始应力场反演、渗流场以及位移反分析     

正压模式中慢波的离散谱及其特征函数

本文对正压模式中慢波的离散谱及其特征函数作了数值计算。结果发现，在低速线性缓变切变基流的情形下，正压原始方程中慢波可有离散谱存在。本文还给出了在该基流下算得的谱点和特征函数，并与准地转模式的计算结果进行了比较。     

The possiblity of detection of ultracool dwarfs with the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey

We present predictions for the numbers of ultracool dwarfs in the Galactic disc population that could be detected by the WFCAM/UKIDSS Large Area Survey and Ultra Deep Survey. Simulated samples of objects are created with masses and ages drawn from different mass functions and birthrates. Each object is then given absolute magnitudes in different passbands based on empirically derived bolometric correction versus effective temperature relationships (or model predictions for Y dwarfs). These are then combined with simulated space positions, velocities and photometric errors to yield observables such as apparent magnitudes and proper motions. Such observables are then passed through the survey selection mechanism to yield histograms in colour. This technique also produces predictions for the proper motion histograms for ultracool dwarfs and estimated numbers for the as yet undetected Y dwarfs. Finally, it is shown that these techniques could be used to constrain the ultra-low-mass mass function and birthrate of the Galactic disc population.     

X2检验假设分布有效性的岩体工程应用

在工程地质问题中许多现象是不确定、且具有随机分布的特性，而这种随机分布特性往往可以采用某种形式的密度函数来描述。采用Ｘ２检验假设分布有效性是一个重要的方法，采用该法可以获得观测数据最佳拟合的概率模型，通过自编程序可以同时检验多种概率密度函数并选取最佳模型。本文将介绍这一方法，并通过一个实例加以说明。     

Seismic studies of the Brasília fold belt at the western border of the São Francisco Craton, Central Brazil, using receiver function, surface-wave dispersion and teleseismic tomography

The Tocantins Province in Central Brazil is composed of a series of SSW–NNE trending terranes of mainly Proterozoic ages, which stabilized in the Neoproterozoic in the final collision between the Amazon and São Francisco cratons. No previous information on crustal seismic properties was available for this region. Several broadband stations were used to study the regional patterns of crustal and upper mantle structure, extending the results of a recent E–W seismic refraction profile. Receiver functions and surface wave dispersion showed a thin crust (33–37 km) in the Neoproterozoic Magmatic Arc terrane. High average crustal Vp/Vs ratios (1.74–1.76) were consistently observed in this unit. The foreland domain of the Brasília foldbelt, on the other hand, is characterized by thicker crust (42–43 km). Low Vp/Vs ratios (1.70–1.72) were observed in the low-grade foreland fold and thrust zone of the Brasília belt adjacent to the São Francisco craton. Teleseismic P-wave tomography shows that the lithospheric upper mantle has lower velocities beneath the Magmatic Arc and Goiás Massif compared with the foreland zone of the belt and São Francisco craton. The variations in crustal thickness and upper mantle velocities observed with the broadband stations correlate well with the measurements along the seismic refraction profile. The integration of all seismic observations and gravity data indicates a strong lithospheric contrast between the Goiás Massif and the foreland domain of the Brasília belt, whereas little variation was found across the foldbelt/craton surface boundary. These results support the hypothesis that the Brasília foreland domain and the São Francisco craton were part of a larger São Francisco-Congo continental plate in the final collision with the Amazon plate.     

不同规格化的引潮位展开及其转换

引入完全规格化的缔合勒让德函数,阐述国际上两类不同规格化的引潮位展开,使引潮位函数表达更加简明,大地系数定义更加规范. 由此得到由Doodson规格化与Hartmann & Wenzel规格化之间的转换系数.     

中国数字地震台网的接收函数及其非线性反演

利用中国数字台网（CDSN）记录的85个远震事件的宽频带P波波形数据和分离接收函数的最大或然性反褶方法,获得了CDSN台网10个台站不同方位的岩石层接收函数.利用这些台站不同方位的平均接收函数和非线性接收函数反演方法,获得了上述各台站下方100km深度范围内的岩石层S波速度结构.结果表明CDSN台网各台站下方的地壳厚度和岩石层速度结构存在明显的差别.其中,拉萨台下方的地壳厚度为66kin,壳幔界面较模糊,而余山台下方的地壳厚度为34km,壳慢界面两侧速度反差明显.刮用本文方法估计的地壳厚度与已有的结果基本一致,由于CDSN台网覆盖了中国大陆的各主要构造单元,本文的结果为研究中国大陆的岩石层S波速度结构及其横向变化提供了新的证据.     

确定砂土动剪切模量和阻尼比的方法对比

确定土体动剪切模量的常用方法有规范法、Kumar法和自相关函数法,确定相应阻尼比的方法有规范法、Das and Luo法、Kokusho法、Kumar法和互相关函数法,为了分析不同方法所产生差异,实现定量化对比分析,笔者以福建标准砂（粒径为0.5~1.0 mm）为研究对象,采用不排水的应力控制动三轴试验,探讨不同的确定土体动剪切模量和阻尼比方法的差异性,并给出了不同土体条件建议选用的方法。结果表明：1）3种方法确定动剪切模量的结果有一定的差异,随剪应变的增大结果的差异逐渐增大,有效围压对结果的差异性有所影响,当剪应变为4×10^-3,有效围压为100 kPa时,3种方法差异显著,相对误差最大接近20%;2）而5种方法确定阻尼比的结果差异显著,随着剪应变的增大,5种方法确定的阻尼比相对误差大体上均在迅速减小,只有规范法在有效围压为100 kPa时,其相对误差有较小的增大趋势;5种方法中,Kumar法确定的阻尼比最接近平均阻尼比,互相关函数法远高于平均阻尼比,Das and Luo法和Kokusho法确定的阻尼比基本一致但低于平均阻尼比。建议以后的工程应用中,加载方式为应力控制时,可采用自相关函数法确定动剪切模量,采用Kumar法确定阻尼比,二者确定的动剪切模量和阻尼比均最接近平均值。