Distribution characteristics of wave energy in the Zhe-Min coastal area

A 10-year（2003–2012） hindcast was conducted to study the wave field in the Zhe-Min coastal area（Key Area OE-W2） located off Zhejiang and Fujian provinces of China. Forced by the wind field from a weather research and forecasting model（WRF）, high-resolution wave modelling using the SWAN was carried out in the study area. The simulated wave fields show a good agreement with observations. Using the simulation results, we conducted statistical analysis of wave power density in terms of spatial distr...     

基于模型试验的海洋核动力平台定位系统解脱作业关键指标分析

海洋核动力平台定位系统采用软刚臂单点系泊方式,属于多铰连接的单点系泊装置。定位系统在长期海上运营过程中,会面临结构维护、改造、更换等作业,解脱作业的安全性是定位系统乃至核动力平台安全的重要组成。借鉴国内外海洋石油平台解脱作业的成功案例,首先给出了核动力平台定位系统解脱作业的流程,并结合解脱作业故障树的风险传递路径给出关键风险指标;然后基于相似理论搭建了定位系统1∶9缩尺比模型试验平台,真实模拟了定位系统全流程解脱作业,验证了定位系统解脱作业的可行性与有效性;基于实时测量数据分析提升缆绳在限位状态与解脱作业时的张力响应、法兰解脱时系泊腿下部万向节振动响应、系泊刚臂下放姿态等关键指标。研究结果表明物理试验模拟方法可以准确表征解脱作业过程的关键节点,并为量化作业指标、优化作业流程提供数据支持,同时相关试验分析方法可以为其他海洋装备的解脱、安装等提供参考。     

物质、情感和权力：跨国移民与家的地理学

随着新文化地理学对流动研究的持续关注,家逐渐成为理解跨国移民日常生活实践的重要概念。本文回顾了家的地理学与跨国移民研究的文献,结果发现：首先,跨国移民家的研究开始吸收物质、情感地理学及政治经济学相关理论,文化地理学者可以结合物质、情感与权力创新“家”的理论;其次,跨国移民家的空间政治主要是基于女性、边缘化阶层以及形式上的公民权,有关男性、精英阶层、内容上的超公民权等研究不仅会成为跨国移民研究的趋势,也会为流动性背景下家的研究提供更多的视角。最后,本文提出跨国移民“家”的实践三要素（物质、情感与权力）概念框图,强调从住宅空间、城市空间与跨国空间尺度对家的实践及尺度互动机制进行探讨。     

旅游商业化“家空间”的代际权力关系与领域构建——西双版纳傣族园案例

论文以西双版纳傣族园的旅游商业化“家空间”为分析样本,基于亲代和子代双重视角,构建家庭微观领域政治的分析框架,意在揭示代际权力关系和领域构建机制。研究发现,旅游商业化的“家空间”是整合多代家庭、促进代际资源交换和权力平衡的协商空间：① 第一代经营者在旅游经营中积累了经济资源、社会资源,掌握着家庭决策权和家务分工权,通过主导空间设置、强化空间排他性、分配家务劳动等领域行为,实现领域构建;② 第二代经营者通过接受教育和外出务工,提高劳动技能,在家庭经营中凸显人力资源优势,提高了家庭自主权,并通过居住空间区隔化、私人生活独立化、家庭经营自主化等空间“去领域化”和“再领域化”策略,重塑领域格局。该研究为理解适度旅游商业化“家空间”的“权力—空间关系”提供了一个分析框架,也是对领域化理论的补充,并为平衡代际权力关系、促进代际团结、推动乡村旅游小企业可持续发展提供了实践启示。     

CDM and national policy: Synergy or conflict? Evidence from the wind power sector in China

This study assesses the effectiveness of a mix of policy instruments including the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) to induce wind technology diffusion in China. Relying on a panel dataset consisting of information from 1207 CDM wind projects in thirty provinces over the period 2004–2011, the empirical analysis indicates that: first, wind energy deployment responds primarily to those counterfactual emissions which would have occurred in the absence of the wind projects; second, the dynamic efficiency of the FIT subsidy shows a potential incompatibility with the CDM incentive; third, the leverage of the CDM on wind investment is supported by the industry and technology policy package, which explains in large part the decrease in the FIT subsidy. Given these findings, suggestions are made regarding the design of a future carbon offset scheme and its link with mitigation action in developing countries.     

The death spiral of coal in the U.S.: will changes in U.S. Policy turn the tide?

ABSTRACT

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has promised to stop the ongoing spiralling down of the U.S. coal industry. We discuss the origins of the decline and assess the effects of policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that, with fierce competition from natural gas and renewables, a further decrease of coal consumption must be expected by the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet. By contrast, we consider the overly optimistic (for coal producers) view of the U.S. Energy Information Agency, and test whether the tide for the U.S. coal industry could turn as a result of three potential support measures: (i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); (ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market; and (iii) enhanced support for Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects on U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz, Haftendorn, Mendelevitch, & von Hirschhausen, 2016). We find that revoking the CPP could stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but even allowing for additional exports, will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s, that is, over 900?Mt per year. When global steam coal use is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100?Mt per year by 2030 and below 50?Mt by 2050, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast is possible.

Key policy insights

• Declining U.S. coal use is primarily caused by competition from natural gas and renewables not by environmental regulation of the coal sector.

• Without substantial policy support, U.S. coal-fired generation capacity will continue to decline rapidly.

• Revoking the Clean Power Plan will lead to about one eighth higher U.S. coal production in the next years.

• Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage does not prevent the rapid decline of coal use required under stringent climate policy.

• Even in the most extreme pro-coal scenarios with additional export possibilities, U.S. coal production will not return to its pre-2010 levels.

     

电源系统SPD组合类型及级间能量配合分析

利用几组实验数据分析SPD之间的能量配合不仅直接影响SPD的防护效用,而且对SPD的使用寿命也有着决定性作用,这也是为什么在GB50057-2010中对SPD安装的位置、级数有着具体要求的原因。     

Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion

Public participation is commonly advocated in policy responses to climate change. Here we discuss prospects for inclusive approaches to adaptation, drawing particularly on studies of long-term coastal management in the UK and elsewhere. We affirm that public participation is an important normative goal in formulating response to climate change risks, but argue that its practice must learn from existing critiques of participatory processes in other contexts. Involving a wide range of stakeholders in decision-making presents fundamental challenges for climate policy, many of which are embedded in relations of power. In the case of anticipatory responses to climate change, these challenges are magnified because of the long-term and uncertain nature of the problem. Without due consideration of these issues, a tension between principles of public participation and anticipatory adaptation is likely to emerge and may result in an overly managed form of inclusion that is unlikely to satisfy either participatory or instrumental goals. Alternative, more narrowly instrumental, approaches to participation are more likely to succeed in this context, as long as the scope and limitations of public involvement are made explicit from the outset.     

基于盲退卷积的AIA图像增强方法

太阳图像中存在各种不同尺度、亮度和结构的物理活动现象,由于太阳日冕高动态活动和传感器设备等因素的影响,太阳图像成像质量不佳。根据太阳动力学天文台(Solar Dynamic Observatory,SDO)的大气成像仪(Atmospheric Imaging Assenbly,AIA)拍摄不同波段数据结构的动态范围大、噪声大、结构相对模糊等特点,提出一种基于盲退卷积的图像增强方法。首先对图像进行去噪和降低动态范围的处理,基于图像功率谱的分布假设,从原图中估计点扩散函数(Point Spread Function,PSF)的功率谱;然后使用相位提取算法恢复点扩散函数的相位,再退卷积得出较高质量的目标图像;最后通过轮廓切片分析、功率谱分析以及点扩散函数分析对增强结果进行定量和定性评价。实验结果表明,相比现有的图像增强方法,该方法在有效增强太阳日冕图像细节结构的同时,能够复原原图中因模糊无法识别的结构。     

基于CGE模型的电力低碳转型速度调控策略研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例

为探讨粤港澳大湾区实现碳中和及电力低碳转型过程的供应安全,构建粤港澳大湾区动态CGE模型,设计51种情景模拟各类型发电量的年均变化幅度,以全社会福利最大化为评价指标,研究煤电退役到保底容量、煤电完全退役和气电达峰容量的最优时间节点和发展速度。结果表明：2020年煤电发电量以年均降低66亿kW∙h幅度退役到2032年保底容量,再以年均降低40亿kW∙h幅度在2045年实现完全退役;气电发电量从2020年起以年均增长61亿kW∙h的幅度在2038年达到峰值,然后以年均51亿kW∙h幅度退役到2050年保底容量1323亿kW∙h;进一步依据2020—2050年本地总发电量增速不变得到非化石电力增长速度,此种煤电、气电和非化石电力发展速度组合的经济性最优。相比基准情景,优选出的电力转型组合情景可累积促进化石能源消费量降低1.1亿tce,碳排放降低2.8亿t CO₂,电力部门增加值增长238亿元,其他部门增加值增长172亿元。