全球气候治理背景下的船舶营运能效评级方法

为共同应对全球气候变化,国际海事组织(IMO)计划制定一套强制性船舶营运能效(碳排放强度)国际机制,与现有强制性船舶设计能效机制互为补充.然而,由于受诸多因素影响,船舶营运能效具有较大的随机性和不确定性,为相关国际机制的构建带来巨大挑战.文中通过构建带有年份虚拟变量的碳强度分位数回归模型,实现了对不同时期海运船队碳排放...     

Gene Expression Programing for Estimating Suspended Sediment Yield in Middle Euphrates Basin,Turkey

Gene expression programing (GEP) is used to estimate the suspended sediment yield (SSY) in Euphrates River. SSY is considered to be a function of (i) discharge and (ii) time‐lagged discharge and SSY. The proposed models were trained to extrapolate natural stream data collected from five stations in Middle Euphrates Basin. A detailed sensitivity analysis is done to select the time‐lagged discharge and sediment yield variables. GEP implicitly evaluates the contribution of each independent variable on the fitness of candidate solution and eliminates the variable having no contribution. In this study, all input variables are observed to be included in the proposed GEP models, which prove the significance of each variable. Also, standard and modified sediment rating curves and regression‐based formulae are developed for the five stations. In verification, the estimations of GEP formulae agree well with the measured ones. The GEP models are evaluated by the results of the rating curves and regression formulae. In general, the GEP formulae give better results compared to the rating curves and regression‐based formulae.     

加拿大森林火险天气指数系统在全球及中国的应用

在全球变暖趋势下,林火的频率和烈度都呈上升趋势,对林火进行准确的预警成为当前中国森林防火亟待解决的紧迫问题.当前全球最常用的火灾天气等级系统是加拿大森林火险天气指数系统(FWI),本研究介绍了其原理、基本结构、发展过程,着重介绍了FWI系统在世界范围内的校准及应用情况,对中国如何建立更适用于中国火灾特点的FWI系统提出...     

Large-scale aquifer sensitivity model

A 480-square-mile region within Will County, in northeastern Illinois, was used as a test region for the development of a methodology to map the sensitivity of aquifers to contamination. An aquifer sensitivity model was developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to overlay and combine several data layers. The components used for our model are: (1) depth to sand and gravel or bedrock, (2) thickness of the uppermost sand and gravel aquifer, (3) glacial drift thickness, and (4) bedrock geology. The model is an improvement over many previous aquifer sensitivity models because it combines specific information on depth to the uppermost aquifer with information on the thickness of the uppermost sand and gravel aquifer. This county-wide model results in an aquifer sensitivity map that can be a useful tool for making land-use planning decisions regarding aquifer protection and management of groundwater resources.     

Modeling River Stage‐Discharge Relationships Using Different Neural Network Computing Techniques

One of the most important problems in hydrology is the establishment of rating curves. The statistical tools that are commonly used for river stage‐discharge relationships are regression and curve fitting. However, these techniques are not adequate in view of the complexity of the problems involved. Three different neural network techniques, i. e., multi‐layer perceptron neural network with Levenberg‐Marquardt and quasi‐Newton algorithms and radial basis neural networks, are used for the development of river stage‐discharge relationships by constructing nonlinear relationships between stage and discharge. Daily stage and flow data from three stations, Yamula, Tuzkoy and Sogutluhan, on the Kizilirmak River in Turkey were used. Regression techniques are also applied to the same data. Different input combinations including the previous stages and discharges are used. The models' results are compared using three criteria, i. e., root mean square errors, mean absolute error and the determination coefficient. The results of the comparison reveal that the neural network techniques are much more suitable for setting up stage‐discharge relationships than the regression techniques. Among the neural network methods, the radial basis neural network is found to be slightly better than the others.     

刘桥二矿651工作面煤层底板岩体质量评价

华北型煤田煤层底板突水灾害性评价是一种特殊的工程地质问题,目前已有数学、力学和经验的多种方法研究这一问题,但是用岩体分级的方法进行安全性评价的尚未见报道。本文建立了一套新型的岩体分级方法,并将该方法用于刘桥二矿651工作面底板突水评价,收到了很好的效果。这一方法也普遍使用了其他华北型煤田。     

Sediment balances in the Blue Nile River Basin

Rapid population growth in the upper Blue Nile basin has led to fast land-use changes from natural forest to agricultural land.This resulted in speeding up the soil erosion process in the highlands and increasing sedimentation further downstream in reservoirs and irrigation canals.At present,several dams are planned across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is currently under construction near the border with Sudan.This will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.The objective of this paper is to quantify the river flows and sediment loads along the Blue Nile River network.The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to estimate the water flows from un-gauged sub-basins.To assess model performance,the estimated sediment loads were compared to the measured ones at selected locations.For the gauged sub-basins,water flows and sediment loads were derived from the available flow and sediment data.To fill in knowledge gaps,this study included a field survey in which new data on suspended solids and flow discharge were collected along the Blue Nile and on a number of tributaries.The comparison between the results of this study and previous estimates of the sediment load of the Blue Nile River at El Deim,near the Ethiopian Sudanese border,show that the sediment budgets have the right order of magnitude,although some uncertainties remain.This gives confidence in the results of this study providing the first sediment balance of the entire Blue Nile catchment at the sub-basin scale.     

Sediment yield studies of headwater catchments in Sussex,S.E. England

The transport of sediment from six small (0.2 to 17.6 km²) headwater catchments is described. The catchments under investigation were located in relation to predominant lithological deposits within the Cretaceous rock succession; two of the areas were underlain by (Weald) clay, two by sandstone (Ashdown Sand and Tunbridge Wells Sand) and two by chalk. The climate of the region under investigation is temperate, with an average annual precipitation (850 mm) in excess of potential evapotranspiration (450 mm). The transport of suspended material from within the catchments was examined by collecting samples of the water-sediment mixture draining the areas, using hand held depth-integrating and permanently installed stage sampling systems. The results of the regularly maintained sampling programme, over a two-year period, are described. Attempts were made to both measure and compute bed load transport. Suspended sediment concentrations are compared between catchments and related to hydrological characteristics. The nature of the material in transit is examined. Sediment rating curves are derived for each of the headwater catchments, defining the relationship in the form y = Ax^b (where y = suspended sediment concentration (mg/1) and x = water discharge (m³/s)). Annual rating curves are used to derive annual suspended sediment loads by combination with water discharge data, using a log-incremental computerized approach. Multiple regression techniques have been used to examine annual loads in terms of hydrological and morphological characteristics of the headwater catchments. Based on the field information available, a generalized model for the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and water discharge is described. Finally, the derived annual loads from the headwater catchments are combined with both limited observations from the larger Sussex rivers and data available for other catchment investigations in the British Isles, to produce a series of prediction equations for catchment yield under temperate climatic conditions.