东营凹陷砂岩透镜体油气成藏机理及有利区预测

近几年济阳坳陷的勘探实践表明, 对岩性油藏的含油性差异、成藏机理尚认识不清, 这制约了隐蔽油气藏的进一步勘探.在东营凹陷145个砂岩透镜体油藏含油性统计分析的基础上, 结合典型透镜体油藏详细解剖和核磁共振物理模拟实验结果综合研究后发现: 砂岩透镜体圈闭形成时的构造和沉积环境、围岩生排烃条件、砂体储集条件是其成藏的主控因素.只有围岩(源岩) 进入供烃门限后, 其与砂体界面处的毛管压力差、烃浓度梯度产生的扩散力和膨胀力3者之和大于砂体中过剩的水向外渗滤遇到的阻力, 即成藏动力大于成藏阻力时, 砂岩透镜体才能成藏.当砂体沉积环境、围岩生排烃条件、砂体自身储集条件3方面均满足一定条件时, 圈闭才具备形成砂岩透镜体油藏的条件, 并且上述3方面条件越优越, 圈闭含油性就越好.用此方法对东营凹陷下第三系沙三中亚段砂岩透镜体油藏的分布进行了预测.      

Satellite-derived rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning in Bogowonto Catchment,Central Java,Indonesia

Satellite rainfall products for landslide early warning prediction have been spotlighted by several researchers, in the last couple of decades. This study investigates the use of TRMM and ERA-Interim data, for the determination of rainfall thresholds and the prediction of precipitation, respectively, to be used for landslide early warning purposes at the Bogowonto catchment, Central Java, Indonesia. A landslide inventory of 218 landslides for the period of 2003–2016 was compiled, and rainfall data were retrieved for the landslide locations, as given by 6 ground stations, TRMM, and ERA-Interim data. First, rainfall data from the three different sources was compared in terms of correlation and extreme precipitation indices. Second, a procedure for the calculation of rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence was followed consisting of four steps: i) the TRMM-based rainfall data was reconstructed for selected dates and locations characterized by landslide occurrence and non-occurrence; ii) the antecedent daily rainfall was calculated for 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days for the selected dates and locations; iii) two-parameter daily rainfall-antecedent rainfall thresholds were calculated for the aforementioned dates; after analysis of the curves the optimum number of antecedent rainfall days was selected; and (iv) empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence were determined. The procedure was repeated for the entire landslide dataset, differentiating between forested and built-up areas, and between landslide occurrence in four temporal periods, in relation to the monsoon. The results indicated that TRMM performs well for the detection of very heavy precipitation and can be used to indicate the extreme rainfall events that trigger landslides. On the contrary, as ERA-Interim failed to detect those events, its applicability for LEWS remains limited. The 15-day antecedent rainfall was indicated to mostly affect the landslide occurrence in the area. The rainfall thresholds vary for forested and built-up areas, as well as for the beginning, middle and end of the rainy season.     

高分三号SAR影像双阈值变化检测

双阈值合成孔径雷达SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)变化检测算法具有在发现变化区域的同时还能确定地表发生后向散射变化类型的优点。针对广义高斯双阈值最小误差法D-GKIT(Dual Generalized Kittler and Illingworth Thresholding)在进行阈值选取时直方图中不同类别像素灰度级重叠严重时,分割结果容易在尖峰单侧选取出双阈值而导致无法正确分割差异图的问题,本文提出一种结合归一化最大类间方差和广义高斯最小误差法GKIT(Generalized Kittler and Illingworth Thresholding)的双阈值SAR变化检测方法。首先,提出以归一化最大类间方差值作为灰度级重叠程度的判别参数,确定阈值的选取顺序及两个候选区间;然后,利用GKIT在候选区间内进行分割,获取单侧阈值及非变化类拟合函数;最后,提出利用非变化类拟合函数更新后的直方图作为另一侧阈值选取基础进行分割,得到对应分割阈值。以宁波地区高分三号(GF-3)SAR卫星影像作为试验研究数据,结果表明:本文方法能较好地解决灰度级重叠时D-GKIT无法进行正确分割的问题,具有良好的变化检测效果和更强的鲁棒性且达到了利用研究区数据验证利用GF-3号SAR卫星影像进行变化检测研究可行性的目的。     

Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Estimation of flow enhancement in the Kinneret watershed due to cloud seeding

A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×10⁶ m ³/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.     

近40年中国区域的气候型变化与北半球大气环流特征10年际时空变化的关系

根据１８００－１９８９年（１１０年）的资料，分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：新加坡年平均降雨量存在准２－６年和１８年的周期振荡；亚洲季风以及ＥＮＳＯ对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为负距平；而在反Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为正距平。     

Numerical Simulation of Regional Short-Range Climate Anomalies

With the high-speed development of numerical weather prediction, since the later 1980’s, the prediction of short-range climate anomalies has attracted worldwide meteorologists’ attention. What the so called short-range re-fers to the time scale from one month to one season or more. In dealing with the problem of short-range climate pre-diction, two points are needed noticing: one is the basic research to explore or investigate the mechanism of variability of the slow varying components which mainly include internal dynamics of extratropics, external forcings and tropical dynamics, and the other is the modeling efforts to simulate the process of the long-term evolution of the signal which include the improvement of model quality, stochastic prediction and the air-sea-coupled model (Miyakoda et al.,1986). Previous researches on the numerical prediction of short-term climate anomalies are mostly concentrated in the analysis of variables with global spatial scale, especially the global general atmospheric circulation analysis.As to the simulation or prediction of regional short-term climate anomalies, there exist many difficulties and problems. Though some meteorologists are devoting themself to this field, up to now, they have not reached satisfac-tory results. As a primary effort, by using the 2-level general atmospheric circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP-AGCM) (Zeng et al., 1989), and taking the year of 1985 as a case, a numerical simulation of regional short-term climate change is completed. We pay high attention to the predictand of anomalous summer rainfall in the Yangtze River and Yellow River valleys, especially its month-to-month variation.     

中国东部近百年的雨量变化

本文用279个气象测站的年雨量资料得到中国东部(100°E以东)1891—1988年大范围平均雨量资料序列.对代表性进行了检验表明:序列在1921年以后能较好地反映大范围气候旱涝状况,而1920年以前则代表性较差.从雨量变化看中国东部的气候在近百年期间是干湿交替出现的,可以分成六个时段.在近四五十年中雨量有减少的趋势,前期雨量偏多,后期从60年代中期以来雨量持续偏少.而且这种变化与北半球副热带其他地区有同相变化的关系.在50年代以前副热带地区雨量的变化却没有明显的同相关系.     

Hydraulics of sediment-laden sheetflow and the influence of simulated rainfall

Laminar sheetflows, transporting sediment at their capacity rates, both with and without rainfall disturbance, were investigated. Values of flow depth and relative submergence were very small. In the flows without rainfall, measured velocities exceeded the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water laminar model by an average of 12 per cent. Reduced flow resistance due to high sediment concentrations may explain this result. Velocities in the rainfall-disturbed flows were not significantly different from the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water model, and the velocity reduction due to rainfall was about 12 per cent. Although the uniformity of rainfall intensity under the single-nozzle rainfall simulator is high, variation of momentum and kinetic energy fluxes along the 1-5 m long flume was significant. The rainfall angle of incidence was highly correlated with deviations from expected flow velocities in the upper and lower sections of the flume.     

北京平原区基岩井水位的年动态特征及其成因分析

系统阐述了北京平原区１０口地震地下水位动态观测井及其水位年动态特征，主要分析了降雨与开采对年动态特征的影响，讨论了大同－阳高地震前后某些井水位长期异常的信度