Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

Versuch der Geschlechtsbestimmung beim Wels,Silurus glanis L., mit Hilfe der Diskriminanzanalyse von Brustflossendaten

Width of the first ray of the pectoral fin has been measured in two places for 154 young and 89 adult wels. Statistical relationships between the above characters and fish length as well as its maturity and sex have been proved. Three models of discriminant function for identification of adult fish sex have been derived and verified. The accuracy of sex separation has been 89,5% in a standard sample of wels, and 90,6% in a routine sample, after an adjustment in the procedure.     

The Coral Triangle Initiative and regional exchanges: Strengthening capacity through a regional learning network

Natural resource management and conservation programs that promote building capacity and social learning among participants often lead to the formation of learning networks: a type of social network where learning is both a goal and potential outcome of the network. Through forming relationships and sharing information, participants in a learning network build social capital that can help a network achieve social and environmental goals. In this study, we explored social capital in a learning network that emerged through a large-scale marine governance effort, the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries, and Food Security. Through a mixture of social network analysis and key informant interviews, we examined the major patterns of information exchange among individuals who had participated in regional learning exchanges; evaluated whether the network's structure resulted in information sharing; and considered implications for strengthening network sustainability, capacity building, and learning. We found that the Regional Exchange network fostered information sharing among participants across national and organizational boundaries. While the network had individuals who were more central to information sharing, the network structure was generally decentralized, indicating potential resilience to changes in leadership and membership. Participants stressed the importance of the knowledge and connections they had acquired through the learning network; however, they expressed doubts regarding its sustainability and stressed the need for a strong coordinating entity. Our findings suggest that conservation learning networks have the ability to bridge cultural divides and promote social learning; however, a strong network coordinator and continuing efforts to support information sharing and learning are crucial to the network's strength and sustainability. The tangible learning and capacity development outcomes cultivated through Regional Exchange network underscore the value of and need to invest in conservation networks that support peer-to-peer learning.     

反演地表质量变化的附有方差约束的径向点质量方法

针对目前径向点质量方法在反演GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)时变地球重力场信号时条带噪声和泄漏误差较大的问题,本文提出了一种附有方差约束的径向点质量方法(Variance Constrained Radial Point-Mass Method,VCPM).该方法利用质量块的先验方差信息设计正则化矩阵对质量变化反演进行空间约束,同时为了解决单一的正则化参数不能适应全球质量变化大小不均匀的问题,构建了迭代的正则化处理策略.为了检验VCPM方法的可靠性,本文反演了2003-01-2014-11全球地表质量变化,并与GRACE球谐位系数法、GLDAS2.1水文模型、CSR (University of Texas Center for Space Research,德克萨斯大学空间研究中心)与JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory,喷气推进实验室) RL06 Mascon数据在全球的均方根误差、长期趋势、周年振幅以及局部的冰冻圈、陆地流域质量变化进行了对比分析.结果显示VCPM与CSR Mascon在全球、陆地和海洋区域的RMSE按面积加权平均值分别为2.12 cm、4.16 cm和1.25 cm,在全球和陆地区域均低于CSR Mascon与JPL Mascon的相应RMSE (2.22 cm和4.62 cm),在海洋区域仅略大于CSR Mascon与JPL Mascon的RMSE (1.18 cm);在8个陆地流域和内陆海域的时间序列对比中,VCPM与两种Mascon数据在扣除季节项和趋势项后的相关系数在绝大多数区域仍能达到0.86以上;另外相对于传统点质量方法和球谐位系数法,VCPM能有效抑制南极和格陵兰岛等区域的泄漏误差.这表明本文所提出的VCPM方法可以有效去除条带误差、抑制海陆信号泄漏且大幅提高反演结果的精度和空间分辨率,从而为计算高精度高分辨率地表质量变化提供了一种可供选择的有效途径.

     

基于形态分割的高分辨率遥感影像道路提取

基于灰度形态学,提出一种从高分辨率遥感图像提取道路网络的方法.首先利用灰度形态特征对遥感影像进行分割,进而得到基本的道路网络轮廓.然后在此基础上,利用线段特征匹配方法提取道路网络.提出的方法能适应于从道路和背景区别不很清楚的遥感图像中提取道路.实验结果也表明,本文方法能有效地从遥感影像中提取道路网络.     

基于灰关联分析的GPS高程拟合加权平均函数模型权函数优选

基于灰色系统理论的灰关联分析方法,提出了权函数的优选方法,实例分析表明其具有较好的实用价值.     

基于三角网渐进式简化的等高线多尺度综合

提出了一种基于三角网渐进式简化的等高线多尺度综合方法,实验结果表明,其不仅可以较好地保留地形特征,而且可以完全避免等高线相交现象的产生.     

GPS网平差观测量选取的理论分析

由多台GPS接收机在不同时段进行静态观测而组成的观测网形,当采用高精度的科研软件与常用商用软件解算基线时,其基线向量的方差阵不同,前者的方差阵结构是完全的、严密的。同时,在进行GPS网平差时,选取GPS基线的方式及数量的不同,构造的网形也就不同,采用不同的数学模型其得到的平差结果和精度指标也不相同。文章先从理论上进行分析,后用示例进行比较论证。     

基于测站信息自动构建导线网

为解决导线网条件平差自动组网问题,提出了程序设计的方法和流程,程序依据导线网的野外观测信息自动构造出导线网的拓扑结构,在此基础上提取必要的平差参数和供平差用的观测数据,实现了从观测到平差结果输出全过程的自动化。     

L1估计的分布及统计性质

推导了Ｌ１估计的密度函数,讨论了Ｌ１估计的统计性质,证明Ｌ１估计是无偏估计,同时还证明Ｌ１估计优于ＬＳ估计。