对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。     

简要介绍R2V的功能及其在数字化图件中的应用

许多物化探及地质成果资料以纸质图件保存,在资料的再利用时需对其进行数字化.这里简要介绍一种数字化功能强大的矢量化软件-R2V的功能,针对物化探图件的特点,探讨了R2V数字化的流程.     

Lithostratigraphic position and petrographic characteristics of R.A.T. (“Roches Argilo-Talqueuses”) Subgroup, Neoproterozoic Katangan Belt (Congo)

The Neoproterozoic Katangan R.A.T. (“Roches Argilo-Talqueuses”) Subgroup is a sedimentary sequence composed of red massive to irregularly bedded terrigenous-dolomitic rocks occurring at the base of the Katangan succession in Congo. Red R.A.T. is rarely exposed in a continuous section because it was affected by a major layer-parallel décollement during the Lufilian thrusting. However, in a number of thrust sheets, Red R.A.T. is in conformable sedimentary contact with Grey R.A.T which forms the base of the Mines Subgroup. Apart from the colour difference reflecting distinct depositional redox conditions, lithological, petrographical and geochemical features of Red and Grey R.A.T. are similar. A continuous sedimentary transition between these two lithological units is shown by the occurrence of variegated to yellowish R.A.T. The D. Strat. “Dolomies Stratifiées” formation of the Mines Subgroup conformably overlies the Grey R.A.T. In addition, a transitional gradation between Grey R.A.T. and D. Strat. occurs in most Cu–Co mines in Katanga and is marked by interbedding of Grey R.A.T.-type and D. Strat.-type layers or by a progressive petrographic and lithologic transition from R.A.T. to D. Strat. Thus, there is an unquestionable sedimentary transition between Grey R.A.T. and D. Strat. and between Grey R.A.T. and Red R.A.T.The R.A.T. Subgroup stratigraphically underlies the Mines Subgroup and therefore R.A.T. cannot be comprised of syn-orogenic sediments deposited upon the Kundelungu (formerly “Upper Kundelungu”) Group as suggested by Wendorff (2000). As a consequence, the Grey R.A.T. Cu–Co mineralisation definitely is part of the Mines Subgroup Lower Orebody, and does not represent a distinct generation of stratiform Cu–Co sulphide mineralisation younger than the Roan orebodies.     

Water level observations from unmanned aerial vehicles for improving estimates of surface water–groundwater interaction

Integrated hydrological models are usually calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Calibration of such models against spatially distributed observations of river water level can potentially improve their reliability and predictive skill. However, traditional river gauging stations are normally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface, whereas spaceborne observations have limited spatial and temporal resolution. Unmanned aerial vehicles can retrieve river water level measurements, providing (a) high spatial resolution; (b) spatially continuous profiles along or across the water body, and (c) flexible timing of sampling. A semisynthetic study was conducted to analyse the value of the new unmanned aerial vehicle‐borne datatype for improving hydrological models, in particular estimates of groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) interaction. Mølleåen River (Denmark) and its catchment were simulated using an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11–MIKE SHE). Calibration against distributed surface water levels using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm demonstrated a significant improvement in estimating spatial patterns and time series of GW–SW interaction. After water level calibration, the sharpness of the estimates of GW–SW time series improves by ~50% and root mean square error decreases by ~75% compared with those of a model calibrated against discharge only.     

Conceptualizing multiple clusters in mega-city regions: The case of the biomedical industry in Beijing

This paper introduces a unique industrial configuration that has emerged in Beijing, where three economic clusters in the biomedical industry, originally established as industrial/research parks, have developed parallel to each other. This configuration of multiple co-located clusters of the same industry, which has not been discussed before, raises the question of whether the industrial/research parks are competing for the same resources, or whether they are complementary to each other and can collectively be viewed as a new type of industrial configuration. The paper conceptualizes a framework of multiple clusters in mega-city regions that distinguishes between collaborating and competing clusters and presents initial empirical evidence for the Beijing case. As such, this research aims to unravel the phenomenon of multiple clusters in mega-city regions and to understand the complex spatial interrelationships that exist within and beyond multiple co-located clusters in the same industry.     

三峡库区四方碑滑坡稳定性与变形趋势预测

三峡水库建成后,库水位周期性涨落和暴雨产生的渗流作用导致大量古滑坡的复活或新滑坡的发生。以库区近水平层状结构的四方碑滑坡为例,依据库水位实际调动,将水位从175 m至145 m不同降速与50年一遇暴雨进行工况组合,计算4种工况下滑坡的稳定性及破坏概率。然后采用Geo-studio软件的Sigma模块对滑坡进行变形模拟,运用R/S分析方法判断滑坡的变形持续性,并结合野外调查情况,综合评价分析四方碑滑坡的稳定性。结果表明:滑坡在各工况下整体均处于基本稳定状态,具有低危险性;变形模拟结果显示滑坡前缘位移最大,与野外调查情况一致;各监测点Hurst指数均介于0.5~1,表明时间序列具有正持续性,在研究的时间限度内滑坡的局部破坏增强,应在汛期加强对滑坡前缘的巡查和预警。     

基于R语言的NetCDF文件分析和可视化应用

气象领域目前有多种广泛应用的气象数据分析和可视化工具集,包括GrADS、NCL、CDO和IDL等。R语言是一种由统计学家开发的统计计算和绘图的语言和环境,具有大数据处理的能力。R语言数量众多的扩展包为R语言用于海量气象数据分析和可视化提供了强有力的支持。基于R语言对NCEP发布的数据集进行了统计分析和可视化,展示了R语言在气象数据处理和可视化方面的应用。结合R语言提供的贝叶斯统计扩展包和高性能并行计算扩展包探讨了R语言在气象数据处理和可视化应用方面的广泛前景。     

广州市南沙区万顷沙网河区排涝调蓄演算研究

快速城市化进程改变了城市地区原有下垫面,不透水层面积增加,暴雨期间汇流时间缩短,洪峰流量加大,进而导致城市内涝加剧,严重影响城市的防洪安全.本研究以广州市南沙区万顷沙网河区为研究对象,基于水量平衡的调蓄演算方法,对研究区域蓄排设施的规模进行分析;构建MIKE11一维网河模型,对涝区水情进行模拟,校核排涝工程规模,并对工...     

南北带强震年度预测能力估计

对中国地震局原分析预报中心测震学科1988～1999年度划定的南北地震带强震(M≥7)危险区进行了回顾和分析。 结果表明, 从过程角度研究前兆地震活动图像及其演变是年度和中短期强震预测的有效途径, 这为南北地震带强震震情跟踪提供了条件。     

Detection of nighttime sea fog/stratus over the Huanghai Sea using MTSAT-1R IR data

A dual channel difference (DCD) method is applied to detect nighttime sea fog/stratus over the Huanghai Sea using the infrared (IR) data of shortwave (3.5–4.0 μm) and longwave (10.3–11.3 μm) channels from the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT)-1R, i.e., shortwave minus longwave brightness temperature difference (SLTD). Twenty-four sea fog events over the Huanghai Sea during March to July of 2006 and 2007 are chosen to determine a suitable value of SLTD for nighttime sea fog/stratus detection, and ...