Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

珠江三角洲软土微结构的定量研究

对用不同长度的PVC管在珠海和广州两地采得的淤泥样柱施于一定荷载，然后在扫描电镜下研究软土受压后在样柱垂深方向上的微结构变化，并将样品的微结构照片扫描，在计算机内进行量化处理。结果表明，样品的孔隙分布分维差随着离施压点距离的增加而逐渐减小，从而得到两者的关系方程。据此，可了解在一定荷载下应力在软土层中向下的衰减趋势。文章还对软土的天然含水量和围压对压缩变形的影响作了初步的讨论。     

The study of the undiscovered mineral resources of the Tongass National Forest and adjacent lands,Southeastern Alaska

The quantitative probabilistic assessment of the undiscovered mineral resources of the 17.1-million-acre Tongass National Forest (the largest in the United States) and its adjacent lands is a nonaggregated, mineral-resource-tract-oriented assessment designed for land-planning purposes. As such, it includes the renewed use of gross-in-place values (GIPV's) in dollars of the estimated amounts of metal contained in the undiscovered resources as a measure for land-use planning.Southeastern Alaska is geologically complex and contains a wide variety of known mineral deposits, some of which have produced important amounts of metals during the past 100 years. Regional geological, economic geological, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral exploration history information for the region was integrated to define 124 tracts likely to contain undiscovered mineral resources. Some tracts were judged to contain more than one type of mineral deposit. Each type of deposit may contain one or more metallic elements of economic interest. For tracts where information was sufficient, the minimum number of as-yet-undiscovered deposits of each type was estimated at probability levels of 0.95, 0.90, 0.50, 0.10, and 0.05.The undiscovered mineral resources of the individual tracts were estimated using the U.S. Geological Survey's MARK3 mineral-resource endowment simulator; those estimates were used to calculate GIPV's for the individual tracts. Those GIPV's were aggregated to estimate the value of the undiscovered mineral resources of southeastern Alaska. The aggregated GIPV of the estimates is $40.9 billion.Analysis of this study indicates that (1) there is only a crude positive correlation between the size of individual tracts and their mean GIPV's: and (2) the number of mineral-deposit types in a tract does not dominate the GIPV's of the tracts, but the inferred presence of synorogenic-synvolcanic nickel-copper, porphyry copper skarn-related, iron skarn, and porphyry copper-molybdenum deposits does. The influence of this study on the U.S. Forest Service planning process is yet to be determined.     

城乡劳动力的转移与城市化

本文从城市化基本定义出发,探讨了劳动力在农村与城市两大经济载体之间流动的机制,指出农业容纳力与排斥力、城市吸引力与吸收力是劳动力流动的决定因素,并在对四个因素进行相互关系分析的基础上,阐明了均衡与非均衡条件下劳动力转移的不同途径。     

黄土孔隙性分类判别的人工神经网络方法

运用人工神经网络的一典型模型——“反向传播”神经网络,对洛川黄土孔隙性的实测数据进行了分析,建立了洛川黄土孔隙性预测的计算机智能专家系统。结果表明,神经网络方法性能良好,可望成为黄土孔隙性分类、判别的有效辅助手段。     

清水塘多因复成铅锌矿床地质特征及深边部盲矿体立体定量预测

在综合分析了清水塘矿床地质特征基础上,运用成矿系统功能模拟原理,在矿区内建立了主要矿脉的立体定量预测模型,并在主矿脉的深边部有效地预测了盲矿体,求出了一定的金属矿量.     

珠江口盆地沉降史定量模拟和分析

运用Petrosys盆地模拟系统，定量和动态地模拟了珠江口盆地三个主要坳陷的沉降过程，论述了沉降速率的变化与生储盖发育之间的关联，认为珠江口盆地构造沉降史具有幕式、多阶段变化的特征。盆地第一幕和第二幕沉降是盆地发育的主要时期，奠定了盆地的构造格架，形成了盆地主要的沉积地层和油气资源。第三幕沉降为盆地的改造和完成阶段，是盆地区域盖层发育的主要时期。     

基于多时相遥感的硫磺沟地区矿产资源开发及环境变化研究

本文以天山硫磺沟矿区为示范研究区,在资料收集和野外调查分析基础上,利用1975年以来30年监测的遥感数据,提取研究区煤、铁、粘土等矿床开发区的时空分布和生态环境时空变化信息,结合数理统计方法和GIS空间分析技术,对矿区矿产开发与土地利用变化进行综合研究,分析硫磺沟矿区矿产开发引起的环境问题,建立1975年以来矿区开发与环境变化定量评价模型,绘制主要矿产分布、生态环境变化等专题图件,直观展现了矿产开发所引起的生态环境问题;探讨30年来矿产开发对自然和人文环境系统影响的过程和机制,确定不同类别矿产开发引起的环境变化和资源破坏的动态趋势,在此基础上提出相应的管理建议。     

脆弱生态环境定量评价方法的研究

建立了一套系统、完整、客观、灵活且具较强可操作性的脆弱生态环境定量评价指标体系及方法,并通过用此法评价全国２６个省、区生态环境脆弱度的方式,对其可操作性和准确性进行了验证。     

Application of quantitative PCR method in detection of Lymphocystis disease virus China （LCDV-cn） in Japanese flounder （Paralichthys olivaceus）

Lymphocystis disease causes serious economic losses in the fish farming industry. The causative agent of the disease is Lymphocystis disease virus China (LCDV-cn), which has a wide range of hosts. Based on competitive quantitative PCR technology, we established a method to quantify the LCDV-cn in tissue. Results demonstrate that the average amount of LCDV-cn in the peripheral blood of infected flounder with evident tumors is about 106virions/ml while the average amount in those flounder with no evident tumor but cultured with the flounder with evident tumor is about 104virions/ml. No virus was found in the negative samples of flounder.