地震活动性正常与异常的群体概率特征及其在地震预测中的应用以汶川地震为例

地震事件一般具有离散性, 即它们的发生和转移具有一定的时间和空间间隔。 当孕震系统处于平衡(或正常)状态时, 系统状态变量X(这里以地震活动性为例)的时间序列概率分布表现为单峰型(如泊松分布); 其时间间隔(或等候时间)Δt分布可用负指数分布来描述。 当系统处于非平衡(或异常)状态时, X的概率分布表现为双峰型或多峰型, 其时间间隔Δt(或空间间隔ΔS)可采用幂函数关系来描述。 可以计算X的1~4阶矩统计参数识别X的概率分布性质, 进一步判断系统所处的状态。 根据这个思路, 本文尝试针对地震活动性的群体概率特征, 探索研究地震活动系统时间和空间结构的演变以及正常和异常状态的辨别, 并将这些方法应用于2008年汶川8.0级地震及其余震趋势和强余震预测实践。     

秦岭—大别东段应力状态研究

本文首先通过Snoke发展的利用P波、 SV波和SH波的初动和振幅比方法计算秦岭—大别东段2008年以来83次M_L≥2.5地震的震源机制解, 然后通过FMSI方法反演得到平均应力场的方向特征: 近东西向的水平挤压和近南北向的水平拉张作用, 与参数统计结果一致; 进而通过震源机制的一致性参数分析应力场方向的变化信息。 分析表明震源机制解呈现了由变化紊乱、 偏离平均应力场到变化一致、 趋于平均应力场再到变化紊乱、 偏离平均应力场的变化过程, 在显著地震前, 研究区整体的震源机制一致性参数处于持续低值状态; 计算了2008年以来93次M_L≥2.5地震的视应力, 拟合视应力与震级的关系, 分析扣除震级影响的差视应力随时间变化特征, 近似反映研究区应力大小的变化。 分析表明显著地震前研究区的差视应力值呈现出明显的先上升后下降的变化过程, 在下降过程中发生地震; 最后利用震源机制一致性参数和差视应力综合分析研究区的应力状态, 均表明显著地震前震源区的构造应力场增强。 目前研究区的震源机制一致性参数较高、 差视应力较低, 研究区的应力水平较低。     

甘肃大桥金矿地球化学异常特征对比

通过对大桥金矿成矿地质特征研究的基础上,对矿区1∶20万区域化探异常特征、1∶5万水系沉积物测量异常特征及1∶1万土壤测量异常特征进行了分析和对比,认为该区化探工作随着比例尺的增大,异常元素增多,异常强度增强,异常浓集中心更加明显,显示出主成矿元素异常和相关伴生元素的继承性和多样性。异常元素组合显示,矿区中、大比例尺化探工作圈定的异常中,金、汞、砷、锑、银等中、低温元素异常发育,成为大桥金矿重要的找矿指示元素和直接找矿指标。原生晕特征标明,金及伴生元素异常展布与矿体产状基本一致,而异常强度在顶、底板明显减弱,说明赋矿层位和岩性对矿体的分布控制作用明显。本文旨在探讨该矿床不同介质系列化探异常特征,为西秦岭区化探找金工作提供新的范例。     

秦岭商丹断裂带的构造样式与变形分析

商丹断裂带作为扬子板块与华北板块的缝合带,在秦岭造山带中占据重要的地位。对其进行精细的构造研究,是了解扬子板块与华北板块相互作用过程的关键。研究工作在商丹断裂带东段展开,对该带进行了详细的野外观察、显微构造观察、糜棱岩化过程中温度的估算、有限应变测量、差异应力的计算以及糜棱岩化过程中运动学涡度的计算。变形温压条件指示糜棱岩形成于中-高绿片岩相到低角闪岩相变质条件。差异应力计算结果指示商丹带具备大型构造动力特征。涡度分析表明该断裂带的变形以纯剪切作用占据主导作用,但包含有简单剪切的分量,从而证明了扬子板块与华北板块之间具有以碰撞挤压为主的斜向汇聚方式。     

华北板块南缘栾川群研究

栾川群出露于东秦岭北部。在栾川群分布区域，古华北板块不同时代的地层往南逆冲，构成北秦岭的太华推覆体。栾川群存在于该推覆体内部的特定逆冲岩席之中，沿这一逆冲岩席追索，确定古华北板块南缘的栾川群是连续沉积的，而受后期推覆构造的改造，栾川群在推覆体前缘的分布是断续相连的。根据地层之间的接触关系、岩浆活动、沉积作用的研究，对栾川群的划分提出了新的看法，认为栾川群由三川组、南泥湖组、煤窑沟组及大红口组构成。栾川群形成于震旦纪晚期，由湖坪及潮下斜坡等滨浅海沉积物构成。栾川群的岩浆岩为具双众数特征的岩套，具典型的大陆裂谷岩浆岩特征。并认为中元古代以来，古华北板块南缘处于裂陷拉张环境。早期的裂陷形成了熊耳群、汝阳群、官道口群及竞坪群，晚期裂陷的过程形成了栾川群、陶湾群，其进一步发育导致以二郎坪群为代表的洋壳生成。     

Multiple stellar populations in the Sextans dwarf spheroidal galaxy?

We present wide-field     multiband ( BVI ) CCD photometry (down to     of the very low surface brightness dwarf spheroidal galaxy Sextans. In the derived colour–magnitude diagrams we find evidence suggesting the presence of multiple stellar populations in this dwarf spheroidal. In particular, we discover (i) a blue horizontal branch tail that appears to lie on a brighter sequence with respect to the prominent red horizontal branch and the RR Lyrae stars, very similar to what was found by Majewski et al. for the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal, (ii) hints of a bimodal distribution in colour of the red giant branch stars, (iii) a double red giant branch bump. All of these features suggest that (at least) two components are present in the old stellar population of this galaxy: the main one with     and a minor component around     . The similarity to the Sculptor case may indicate that multiple star formation episodes are also common in the most nearby dwarf spheroidals that ceased their star formation activity at very early epochs.     

The mass of the Andromeda galaxy

This paper argues that the Milky Way galaxy is probably the largest member of the Local Group. The evidence comes from estimates of the total mass of the Andromeda galaxy (M31) derived from the three-dimensional positions and radial velocities of its satellite galaxies, as well as the projected positions and radial velocities of its distant globular clusters and planetary nebulae. The available data set comprises 10 satellite galaxies, 17 distant globular clusters and nine halo planetary nebulae with radial velocities. We find that the halo of Andromeda has a mass of together with a scalelength of 90 kpc and a predominantly isotropic velocity distribution. For comparison, our earlier estimate for the Milky Way halo is Although the error bars are admittedly large, this suggests that the total mass of M31 is probably less than that of the Milky Way . We verify the robustness of our results to changes in the modelling assumptions and to errors caused by the small size and incompleteness of the data set.
Our surprising claim can be checked in several ways in the near future. The numbers of satellite galaxies, planetary nebulae and globular clusters with radial velocities can be increased by ground-based spectroscopy, while the proper motions of the companion galaxies and the unresolved cores of the globular clusters can be measured using the astrometric satellites Space Interferometry Mission ( SIM ) and Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics ( GAIA ). Using 100 globular clusters at projected radii 20 R 50 kpc with both radial velocities and proper motions, it will be possible to estimate the mass within 50 kpc to an accuracy of 20 per cent. Measuring the proper motions of the companion galaxies with SIM and GAIA will reduce the uncertainty in the total mass caused by the small size of the data set to 22 per cent.     

Comparison of parallel group velocity of ECH waves with electron resonant velocity: Implication for electron diffusion by ECH waves

We have investigated the role of group velocity in the calculation of pitch-angle diffusion coefficients by electron cyclotron harmonic (ECH) waves in planetary magnetospheres. The assumption which is generally made that the parallel group velocity can be neglected in comparison with particle parallel velocity is examined in detail. It is found that for lowest harmonic band this assumption is quite good. It is found that in general it is not possible to ignore the parallel group velocity. However, for lowest harmonic band this assumption is quite good at low electron temperatures.