青藏高原河谷地区历史时期耕地格局重建方法探讨——以河湟谷地为例

青藏高原受其特殊自然地理环境条件的限制,耕地主要分布在自然环境条件相对优越的河谷地区,人为因素对耕地分布范围的作用和影响极其微弱,尤其是在历史时期生产力水平较低的前提下,耕地的空间分布主要取决于土地的宜垦程度。本文将影响青藏高原河谷地区耕地分布的因子按其性质分为限制性因子和非限制性因子,并以此为基础排除了高原河谷地区不适宜耕作的地区,在适宜耕作的地区根据土地的宜垦程度,按"先优后劣"的原则将历史时期的耕地数据分配到空间上。选取青藏高原农业发展历史悠久的河谷地区之一河湟谷地作为实例,重建该区1726年耕地空间格局。将重建结果与已有的M模型重建结果进行对比分析,两者重建的耕地在空间分布上呈现出一致性,但重建结果在垦殖范围与垦殖强度上存在一定的差异;M模型的重建主要是以现代耕地分布格局为基础重建,忽略了现代耕地空间分布受现代农业技术的影响;而本文模型则是从低生产力水平前提下影响历史时期耕地分布的因子出发,重建结果更具合理性。     

Mapping degraded grassland on the Eastern Tibetan Plateau with multi-temporal Landsat 8 data — where do the severely degraded areas occur?

The Tibetan Plateau in Western China is the world’s largest alpine landscape, sheltering a rich diversity of native flora and fauna. In the past few decades, the Tibetan Plateau was found to suffer from grassland degradation processes. Grassland degradation is assumed to not only endanger biodiversity but also to increase the risk for natural hazards in other parts of the country which are ecologically and hydrologically connected to the area. However, the mechanisms behind the degradation processes remain poorly understood due to scarce baseline data and insufficient scientific research.We argue that remote sensing data can help to better understand degradation processes and patterns by: (1) identifying the distribution of severely degraded areas and (2) comparing the patterns of key spatial attributes of the identified areas (altitude above sea level, aspect, slope, administrative districts) with existing theories on degradation drivers. Therefore, we applied four Landsat 8 images covering large portions of the three counties Jigzhi, Baima and Darlag in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The dates of the Landsat scenes were selected to cover differing phenological stages of the ecosystem. Reference data were collected with a remotely piloted aircraft and a standard consumer RGB camera. To exploit the phenological information in the Landsat data as well as deal with the problem of cloud cover in multiple images, we developed a straightforward PCA-based procedure to merge the Landsat scenes. The merged Landsat data served as input to a supervised support vector machine classification which was validated with an iterative bootstrap procedure and an additional independent validation set. The considered classes were “high-cover grassland”, “grassland (including several stages of grassland vitality)”, “(severely) degraded grassland”, “green shrubland”, “grey shrubland”, “urban areas” and “water bodies”. Kappa accuracies ranged between 0.84 and 0.93 in the iterative procedure, while the independent validation led to a kappa accuracy of 0.76. Mean producer’s and user’s accuracies for all classes were higher than 80%, and confusion mainly occurred between the two shrubland classes and between the three grassland classes.Analysis of the slope, aspect and altitude values of the vegetation classes revealed that the degraded areas mostly occurred at the higher altitudes of the study area (4300–4600 m), with no strong connection to any specific slope or aspect. High-cover grassland was mostly located on sunny slopes at lower altitudes (less than 4300 m), while shrubland preferred shady, relatively steep slopes across all altitudes. These observations proved to be stable across the examined counties, while the proportions of land-cover classes differed between the examined regions. Most counties showed 5–7% severely degraded land cover. Darlag, the county located at the edge of the permafrost zone, and featuring the highest average altitude and lowest annual temperature and precipitation, was found to suffer from larger areas of severe degradation (14%).Therefore, our findings support a strong connection between degradation patterns and climatic as well as altitudinal gradients, with an increased degradation risk for high altitude areas and areas in colder and drier climatic zones. This is relevant information for pastoral management to avoid further degradation of high altitude pastures.     

Physical analog (centrifuge) model investigation of contrasting structural styles in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau,northern Pakistan

We use scaled physical analog (centrifuge) modeling to investigate along- and across-strike structural variations in the Salt Range and Potwar Plateau of the Himalayan foreland fold-thrust belt of Pakistan. The models, composed of interlayered plasticine and silicone putty laminae, comprise four mechanical units representing the Neoproterozoic Salt Range Formation (basal detachment), Cambrian–Eocene carapace sequence, and Rawalpindi and Siwalik Groups (Neogene molasse), on a rigid base representing the Indian craton. Pre-cut ramps simulate basement faults with various structural geometries.A pre-existing north-dipping basement normal fault under the model foreland induces a frontal ramp and a prominent fault-bend-fold culmination, simulating the Salt Range. The ramp localizes displacement on a frontal thrust that occurs out-of-sequence with respect to other foreland folds and thrusts. With a frontal basement fault terminating to the east against a right-stepping, east-dipping lateral ramp, deformation propagates further south in the east; strata to the east of the lateral ramp are telescoped in ENE-trending detachment folds, fault-propagation folds and pop-up structures above a thick basal detachment (Salt Range Formation), in contrast to translated but less-deformed strata with E–W-trending Salt-Range structures to the west. The models are consistent with Salt Range–Potwar Plateau structural style contrasts being due to basement fault geometry and variation in detachment thickness.     

青藏高原东南缘川滇地块古近纪沉积地层古地磁分析及其构造意义

针对中国西部及中亚地区以红色陆相沉积岩为主的白垩纪—新生代地层中普遍存在古地磁数据磁倾角偏低的现象,对青藏高原东南缘川滇地块中部大姚地区古近纪陆相红层进行了磁倾角偏低研究。实验结果表明,川滇地块内部古近纪陆相红层古地磁数据不存在明显的磁倾角偏低的现象。结合前人对川滇地块内部古地磁数据及周缘新生代走滑断裂的活动演化历史研究,确定川滇地块自中中新世以来川滇地块内部表现为刚性旋转,楚雄地区则发生局部构造旋转叠加。     

青藏高原北部巴颜喀拉山群英安质沉凝灰岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄

应用激光烧蚀多接收器电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(LA-ICP-MS)方法,对青藏高原北部卡巴纽尔多湖西牙扎康塞一带巴颜喀拉山群碎屑岩系英安质沉凝灰岩夹层中的锆石进行了U-Pb同位素测定。研究结果表明,除1个继承锆石206Pb/238U年龄为419±3Ma外,其余20个岩浆锆石的206Pb/238U年龄变化于242~254Ma之间,其中7个测点的206Pb/238U年龄加权平均值为244±2Ma(MSWD=1.3),代表了火山岩的喷发年龄,说明该地区巴颜喀拉山群形成于中三叠世早期,而非传统认为的晚三叠世。该套地层时代的确定,为进一步研究巴颜喀拉山群的物质组成与形成时代提供了新的证据。     

在ENSO不同位相下青藏高原春季感热对华南盛夏降水的影响

根据青藏高原(简称高原)春季感热(Sensible Heat,SH)异常和ENSO不同位相,划分出12种类型,研究了高原春季(5月)SH异常和前冬ENSO对华南盛夏(7—8月)降水的影响及相对影响程度。结果表明:高原春季SH和前冬ENSO均对华南盛夏降水有较显著的影响,即当两者分别处于各自正(负)位相时,华南盛夏降水普遍偏少(多);通过对两者的单独作用和协同作用的分析表明,高原春季SH对华南盛夏降水贡献要更大。影响机制分析发现华南盛夏降水受西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)和南亚高压共同影响,ENSO直接影响西太副高,而高原春季SH异常则对南亚高压作用显著,因此在两者共同影响下,两个高压的变化共同导致华南盛夏降水出现异常。      

引发强降水的一次东移高原云团的能量演变特征研究

利用日本气象厅葵花-8卫星亮温资料、欧洲中心ERA5（the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis）再分析资料,根据时间尺度分解的局地能量诊断方法,本文从能量学多个角度研究了2016年6月5日00时（协调世界时,下同）至6日15时（持续40小时）一次东移并引发强降水的高原对流云团,得到了以下主要结论。本次事件中,高原东移对流云团在不同阶段的主要影响系统有所不同。移出高原前,其主要受高原涡和高原短波槽的共同影响,随着云团移出高原,高原涡消亡,而高原短波槽则随时间发展加强,成为东移云团的最主要影响系统。高原东移对流云团具有显著的深对流特征,自西向东引发了一系列的降水,移出高原后,其对流重心显著降低,降水达到最强。不同阶段高原东移对流云团的能量转换特征显著不同。云团位于高原上时（第一阶段）,背景场通过动能的降尺度能量级串为造成强降水的扰动流直接提供能量,这是此阶段扰动流动能维持的主要方式;云团移出高原过程中（第二阶段）,降水凝结潜热明显增强,由此制造的扰动有效位能也显著增强。在垂直运动配合下,扰动有效位能斜压释放所制造的动能是本阶段造成强降水扰动流动能维持的最主要能量来源;云团移出高原后（第三阶段）,背景场对造成强降水扰动流的影响再次增强,但是不同于第一阶段的直接影响方式,该阶段背景场的作用是以一种间接的影响方式出现。其首先通过有效位能的降尺度级串将背景场的有效位能转换为扰动流的有效位能,然后通过扰动有效位能的斜压能量释放为扰动流的动能维持不断地提供能量。此外,本阶段内还出现了扰动流向背景场动能的升尺度级串供给（即扰动流的反馈）,但其强度不足以对背景场的演变产生显著影响。     

青藏高原5月大气热源与黑龙江省盛夏降水的关系

利用1961—2017年黑龙江省夏季降水资料和NCEP再分析资料,采用奇异值分解、相关分析、回归分析等方法,研究了青藏高原大气热源与黑龙江省盛夏降水的关系及可能的影响机制。结果表明:5月青藏高原热源与黑龙江省7月降水关系最密切,当5月高原东部热源偏强时,7月黑龙江省中部降水显著偏少。5月热源偏强年,在副热带西风急流的作用下,7月中纬度环流呈现类似“丝绸之路”型遥相关波列,同时东亚沿岸环流呈现类似“东亚—太平洋”型遥相关波列,在二者共同作用下黑龙江省受反气旋式环流影响,7月降水偏少。     

亚洲急流与冬季风的关系及其对中国气候的影响

利用NCEP\NCAR逐月再分析资料和中国台站逐日观测数据,采用奇异值分解(SVD)、相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究冬季亚洲高空急流的配置与冬季风的关系及其对地面气候的影响.结果表明,青藏高原至亚洲东部沿海的副热带急流强(弱),高纬的温带急流弱(强)时,中国中、东部大范围地区气温偏低(高);中东急流强(弱),东亚副热带急流偏南(北),温带急流东南部较弱(强)时,西南气温偏低(高),东北气温偏高(低),中、东部地区冬季降水偏多(少).结合水平风场的变化,副热带地区出现西风异常弱,温带出现东风异常时,有利于东亚大槽加深并向南扩张,低层偏北风加强,东亚冬季风增强,而青藏高原反气旋环流被削弱,冷高压减弱,相应的高原季风减弱.高、低纬急流区纬向风的差异较大时,加强了急流对低层冷、暖空气交绥的引导和汇聚的作用.东亚季风指数(EAMI)与高原季风指数(PMI)在冬季多呈负相关.冬季风异常期间,若副热带急流偏强,温带急流偏弱,高纬的干冷空气受南侧急流的汇聚作用而南侵,有利于中国大部分地区降温,降水减少;反之,低纬的暖湿气流受到北侧急流引导而向北输送,导致中国大部分地区升温,降水偏多.     

青藏高原与东亚地区暖季MCSs统计特征的对比分析

利用1996-2010年逐时红外云顶亮温(TBB)数据,对青藏高原(下称高原)和东亚地区暖季(3-9月)中尺度对流系统(MCSs)进行了普查,获得MCSs各项特征数据集;结合CMORPH降水资料对MCSs降水特征进行了分析,在此基础上又对高原和东亚地区的MCSs特征进行了对比分析.结果表明:(1)高原是东亚地区MCSs高频发生区域,高原MCSs的平均发生频次远高于东亚25°N以北地区,是东亚25°N以北地区唯一的MCSs活动高频区.高原腹地是高原地区MCSs发生的高频区,在31°N,88°E附近MCSs的发生频次最高.(2)高原地区 MCSs分布有明显的月际变化,春季主要出现在高原北部,夏季主要出现在高原中东部和南部.高原地区MCSs的月际变化特征与东亚地区基本一致,东亚夏季风是其月际变化的重要影响因子.(3)高原地区MCSs存在明显的单峰型日变化特征,但春、夏季日变化特征略有不同,高原MCSs的日变化较东亚地区更为显著.(4)高原地区MCSs的降水频次为5.6％,降水贡献率为10.1％,最大降水频次为12％,最大降水贡献率为27％;与东亚地区相比,高原的MCSs降水偏小.(5)高原地区的MCSs大多为向东移动且移速缓慢以及短生命史的MβCS,平均生命史为4.6h,平均面积约为11.2×10-1km2,平均移速为31.5 km·h-1,东移的MCSs占59.4％;与整个东亚地区的MCSs相比,高原的MCSs面积和尺度都较小,生命史略短且移速慢,云顶平均TBB和平均最低TBB均偏高.