Cumulative semivariogram models of regionalized variables

The cumulative semivariogram approach is proposed for modeling regionalized variables in the geological sciences. This semivariogram is defined as the successive summation of half-squared differences which are ranked according to the ascending order of distances extracted from all possible pairs of sample locations within a region. This procedure is useful especially when sampling points are irregularly distributed within the study area. Cumulative semivariograms possess all of the objective properties of classical semivariograms. Classical semivariogram models are evaluated on the basis of the cumulative semivariogram methodology. Model parameter estimation procedures are simplified with the use of arithmetic, semilogarithmic, or double-logarithmic papers. Plots of cumulative semivariogram values vs. corresponding distances may scatter along a straight line on one of these papers, which facilitates model identification as well as parameter estimation. Straight lines are fitted to the cumulative semivariogram scatter diagram by classical linear regression analysis. Finally, applications of the methodology are presented for some groundwater data recorded in the sedimentary basins of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

Resampling methods for evaluating the uncertainty of the nonparametric magnitude distribution estimation in the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of magnitude of seismic events is one of the most important probabilistic characteristics in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The magnitude distribution of mining induced seismicity is complex. Therefore, it is estimated using kernel nonparametric estimators. Because of its model-free character the nonparametric approach cannot, however, provide confidence interval estimates for CDF using the classical methods of mathematical statistics.To assess errors in the seismic events magnitude estimation, and thereby in the seismic hazard parameters evaluation in the nonparametric approach, we propose the use of the resampling methods. Resampling techniques applied to a one dataset provide many replicas of this sample, which preserve its probabilistic properties. In order to estimate the confidence intervals for the CDF of magnitude, we have developed an algorithm based on the bias corrected and accelerated method (BC_a method). This procedure uses the smoothed bootstrap and second-order bootstrap samples. We refer to this algorithm as the iterated BC_a method. The algorithm performance is illustrated through the analysis of Monte Carlo simulated seismic event catalogues and actual data from an underground copper mine in the Legnica–Głogów Copper District in Poland.The studies show that the iterated BC_a technique provides satisfactory results regardless of the sample size and actual shape of the magnitude distribution.     

斯里兰卡海域马林鱼(Makira sp.)的丰度与海表温度之间的关系

马林鱼（Makira sp.）是斯里兰卡一种有名的海洋鱼类.为了降低在近海区域捕获马林鱼的成本,研究马林鱼的丰度是否受温度的影响十分重要.因此,对2~13.5°N,76.5~88°E区域内2006年的Aqua/MODIS海表温度数据和从斯里兰卡国家水产资源研究和发展机构获取的2006年的马林鱼捕获数据进行了分析.通过对东北、东南、西北和西南海域的数据分别绘图,分析海表温度和鱼类供应的时空变化以及它们之间的关系.研究结果显示：马林鱼最大的鱼获产量区域位于斯里兰卡海域的西部海域;渔业单位捕捞量随着海表温度变化而变化;捕获马林鱼最大频率的海域海表温度为27~28℃.根据经验累积分布频率（ECDF）分析的结果,渔获率与22~31℃海表温度之间有着显著的关系,尤其与26~31℃海表温度的关系最为显著.对于不同的区域,捕捞马林鱼最合适的时间也不同,东北海域的3—5月和7—10月、西北海域的2—6月和8—9月、东南海域的2—7月和9—12月以及西南海域的3月—次年1月均适合马林鱼的捕捞.     

揭阳地区雷电流幅值特征及累积概率公式分析

为研究揭阳地区雷电流幅值特征,本文利用2017－2020年揭阳地区雷电流数据,通过数理统计和matlab拟合工具箱,研究分析了雷电流幅值时间分布规律及幅值累积概率特征。结果表明：近4年揭阳地区共发生地闪回击62806次,其中0－200 kA幅值的回击次数占比约为99.81 %,正、负地闪回击频次随雷电流幅值变化整体呈现先增加后减少趋势。正地闪回击幅值大值区月份出现在3月和11月,负地闪回击幅值大值区月份为3月和10月,随着季节的推移,正地闪回击幅值大值区的出现时段逐渐推迟;负地闪回击电流幅值的大值区多出现在00:00－10:00。对比分析了IEEE和DL/T幅值累积概率推荐公式曲线,IEEE推荐公式曲线与实际值分布曲线基本重合,并得出了揭阳地区雷电流幅值累积概率拟合公式,与实际值的误差值介于-0.006－0.0005,为揭阳地区的防雷减灾工作提供参考。     

序列无人机影像拼接方法研究

无人机影像具有数量多、畸变大、POS数据不准确等特点,导致其在拼接过程中会产生大量的累积误差,要快速地获得大范围准确的全景图有一定的困难。基于此,提出一种既精确又高效的无人机序列影像拼接方法。首先计算大致的影像匹配区域,减少特征搜索和匹配的时间,同时记录匹配区域中心位置的特征点坐标,引入平差理论,区分平地、丘陵、山区等不同区域加权纠正匹配特征点的坐标位置。同时针对航带间重叠率小、姿态差异大等特点,采用"先航带间再航带内、旁边航带向中间航带靠拢"的拼接方式,减少整体区域的累积误差产生,最终完成全局影像的拼接。     

水电开发对大渡河瀑布沟以下河段的水温影响

为探究水电开发对大渡河水温过程的影响,采用原型观测和数学模型相结合的方法,对比分析了瀑布沟电站开发前后下游河道的水温时空变化特性。研究成果表明,与天然情况相比,现阶段瀑布沟下游沿程水温出现了明显的均化效应和延迟效应以及春夏季低温水、秋冬季高温水现象,最大降温2.4℃出现在4月的龚嘴尾水断面,最大升温3.3℃出现在12月的瀑布沟尾水断面;瀑布沟下游小型水库均未出现水温分层现象,但形成的蓄水体对沿程升温有一定的弱化,沿程增温率由天然状态的0.8℃/100 km降至现阶段的0.5℃/100 km;采用考虑了机械能转化的数学模型能较好地模拟瀑布沟下游河道的水温过程,率定得到的"机械能-内能"转化率为55%。     

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of a sediment transport model

Higher-order approximation techniques for estimating stochastic parameter of the non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) model are presented. The NHP model is characterized by a two-parameter cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of sediment displacement. Those two parameters are the temporal and spatial intensity functions, physically representing the inverse of the average rest period and step length of sediment particles, respectively. Difficulty of estimating the parameters has, however, restricted the applications of the NHP model. The approximation techniques are proposed to address such problem. The basic idea of the method is to approximate a model involving stochastic parameters by Taylor series expansion. The expansion preserves certain higher-order terms of interest. Using the experimental (laboratory or field) data, one can determine the model parameters through a system of equations that are simplified by the approximation technique. The parameters so determined are used to predict the cumulative distribution of sediment displacement. The second-order approximation leads to a significant reduction of the CDF error (of the order of 47%) compared to the first-order approximation. Error analysis is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the first- and second-order approximations with respect to the experimental data. The higher-order approximations provide better estimations of the sediment transport and deposition that are critical factors for such environment as spawning gravel-bed.     

Uncertainties in estimation of extrapolated annual occurrence rate of earthquakes using logical tree

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Cumulative demand of the earthquake ground motions in the near source

In this paper the effects of near‐fault earthquakes are investigated through the study of parameters related to both input energy and plastic cycles demand. Based on the results of two different regression analyses performed with 128 near‐fault and 122 far‐field registrations, respectively, the Cosenza and Manfredi adimensional Id index was found to be the best seismological parameter correlated to the number n and amplitude m of plastic cycles in the vicinity of the source as well as far from it. Analytical formulations for n,m and for the equivalent number of plastic cycles neq are proposed for near‐fault and far‐field regions. The study of Id and neq shows the tendency of such parameters to increase as the distance increases. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cumulative damage‐based inelastic cyclic demand spectrum

The estimation of cyclic deformation demand resulting from earthquake loads is crucial to the core objective of performance‐based design if the damage and residual capacity of the system following a seismic event needs to be evaluated. A simplified procedure to develop the cyclic demand spectrum for use in preliminary seismic evaluation and design is proposed in this paper. The methodology is based on estimating the number of equivalent cycles at a specified ductility. The cyclic demand spectrum is then determined using well‐established relationships between seismic input energy and dissipated hysteretic energy. An interesting feature of the proposed procedure is the incorporation of a design spectrum into the proposed procedure. It is demonstrated that the force–deformation characteristics of the system, the ductility‐based force‐reduction factor R_μ, and the ground motion characteristics play a significant role in the cyclic demand imposed on a structure during severe earthquakes. Current design philosophy which is primarily based on peak response amplitude considers cyclic degradation only in an implicit manner through detailing requirements based on observed experimental testing. Findings from this study indicate that cumulative effects are important for certain structures, classified in this study by the initial fundamental period, and should be incorporated into the design process. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.