青藏高原东北部的库仑应力积累演化对大地震发生的影响

假定地震可以模拟为多层弹粘性介质中的位错，考虑大地震(Mge;7.0)和GPS数据得出的长期构造加载为形变源，依据多层麦克斯韦弹粘性介质中位错产生的应力变化，计算得到了地震产生的应力变化，给出了青藏高原东北部1920年以来积累库仑破裂应力演化. 地震破裂的断层长度、宽度和滑动量根据前人统计公式和野外地质调查得到. 研究表明，20次Mge;7.0地震中， 除1990年共和地震、1952年当雄地震和1976年松潘双震的后一个事件外，17次大地震均发生在库仑破裂应力变化为正的区域， 触发率达85%. 本研究为中长期地震危险性估计在一定程度上提供了基础数据.      

延安地区雷电流幅值累积概率分布特征及计算公式

利用陕西省雷电定位系统资料分析了延安地区2009—2012年的雷电流数据,并对多种雷电流幅值累积概率公式进行了比较分析,同时引入雷电流概率密度公式,列举实例,分析了各累积概率公式所拟合的曲线与实测值所绘制曲线的误差,并根据分析结果给出了该地区带有未知系数α、β的雷电流幅值累积概率计算公式,利用Matlab的Cftool工具中的最小二乘曲线拟合方法对地闪进行拟合,求出拟合误差最小和拟合效果最好时的α、β值,得出了该地区更为精确的雷电流幅值累积概率计算公式,并利用该地区2013年的雷电流数据对推导出的公式进行了准确性验证.结果表明：正闪的平均雷电流幅值明显大于负闪,而负闪的雷电流幅值分布比正闪的分布相对更集中;正闪的雷电流幅值累积概率的分布曲线比较平缓,而负闪的相对比较陡峭;利用规程公式拟合的曲线与实测值对应的曲线差异较大,而利用IEEE Std和CIGRE推荐公式分别拟合的曲线与实测值对应曲线的变化趋势一致,相比规程公式IEEE Std的误差明显减小;当α=36.04,β=4.349时,拟合误差最小,拟合效果最好,并且发现雷电流I_c在0~150 kA时,拟合误差在-0.025~0.018,当I_c=35 kA时,拟合误差最大,为0.025,当I_c大于150 kA时,拟合误差趋于0.     

Achievability of the Paris Agreement targets in the EU: demand-side reduction potentials in a carbon budget perspective

Limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C is an integral part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these aims, cumulative global carbon emissions after 2016 should not exceed 940 – 390?Gt of CO₂ (for the 2°C target) and 167 – ?48?Gt of CO₂ (for the 1.5°C target) by the end of the century. This paper analyses the EU’s cumulative carbon emissions in different models and scenarios (global models, EU-focused models and national carbon mitigation scenarios). Due to the higher reductions in energy use and carbon intensity of the end-use sectors in the national scenarios, we identify an additional mitigation potential of 26–37 Gt cumulative CO₂ emissions up to 2050 compared to what is currently included in global or EU scenarios. These additional reductions could help to both reduce the need for carbon dioxide removals and bring cumulative emissions in global and EU scenarios in line with a fairness-based domestic EU budget for a 2°C target, while still remaining way above the budget for 1.5°C.

Key policy insights

• Models used for policy advice such as global integrated assessment models or EU models fail to consider certain mitigation potential available at the level of sectors.

• Global and EU models assume significant levels of CO₂ emission reductions from carbon capture and storage to reach the 1.5°C target but also to reach the 2°C target.

• Global and EU model scenarios are not compatible with a fair domestic EU share in the global carbon budget either for 2°C or for 1.5°C.

• Integrating additional sectoral mitigation potential from detailed national models can help bring down cumulative emissions in global and EU models to a level comparable to a fairness-based domestic EU share compatible with the 2°C target, but not the 1.5°C aspiration.

     

Comparative analysis of interdecadal precipitation variability over central North China and sub Saharan Africa

本文对比分析了1951–2016年华北与北非降水的年代际变化,及其与全球大尺度海温和环流型的关联性。结果发现二者呈现出相似的年代际干湿演变特征。自上世纪70年代以来,华北与北非降水均由正异常转为持续负异常。90年代以后,北非降水虽仍是负异常,但呈现出显著地增加趋势。北非降水与大西洋多年代际振荡(AMO)、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)和北大西洋(NAO)均显著相关,华北降水与PDO和NAO显著相关。通过经验正交分解,发现华北与北非降水的第一模态均与NAO关系密切,且二者第一模态所对应的时间序列呈现反位相变化。     

地铁盾构隧道近接施工风险等级评估方法研究北大核心CSCD

为准确掌握地铁盾构近接施工的风险等级,以近接既有隧道施工断面的地表沉降变形监测成果为基础,先分析研究其变形规律,再利用累计变形判据和变形速率判据实现近接施工的风险等级评估。实例分析表明:在近接施工段,地表变形具波动起伏特征,最大沉降量已达27.22 mm,说明近接施工对周围土体的扰动影响较为显著,但就现状变形而言,累计沉降量及变形速率均在预警值范围以内;同时,在近接施工风险等级评估过程中,各类风险判据的评估结果是不同的,侧面说明了近接施工风险评估判据应具多样性,且通过计算,得不同监测点的综合风险等级也存在一定差异,风险等级间于Ⅱ级~Ⅲ级,按不利原则,综合确定近接既有隧道段的施工风险等级为Ⅲ级,需提高监测频率,以切实保证施工安全。本次研究为合理评价近接施工风险等级提供了一种新的思路。     

橡胶集料风积沙混凝土柱抗震性能试验研究

为研究橡胶集料风积沙混凝土柱的抗震性能,制作了4根相同尺寸的混凝土柱试件,其中包括普通混凝土柱、风积沙混凝土柱、橡胶集料混凝土柱和橡胶集料风积沙混凝土柱。通过低周反复荷载试验,分析各试件的破坏现象、滞回曲线、骨架曲线、刚度退化和延性等抗震性能指标。在试验的基础上,根据能量耗散原理建立累积损伤评价模型,并对结构进行了累积损伤分析。研究结果表明:10%橡胶集料的掺入能够改善混凝土柱的变形能力,但混凝土柱的承载力有所降低;30%风积沙的掺入可以改善混凝土柱的抗震性能;橡胶集料风积沙混凝土柱具有较好的滞回性能,且耗能能力和延性性能明显高于其余试件,柱的抗震性能得到提高;通过累积损伤分析表明:适量掺入橡胶集料和风积沙的可以有效减缓试件的损伤,且该累积损伤模型能够较好的反映出各试件的损伤程度。     

Capacity spectrum method based on inelastic demand spectra

By means of a graphical procedure, the capacity spectrum method compares the capacity of a structure with the demands of earthquake ground motion on it. In the present version of the method, highly damped elastic spectra have been used to determine seismic demand. A more straightforward approach for the determination of seismic demand is based on the use of the inelastic strength and displacement spectra which can be obtained directly by time-history analyses of inelastic SDOF systems, or indirectly from elastic spectra. The advantages of the two approaches (i.e. the visual representation of the capacity spectrum method and the superior physical basis of inelastic demand spectra) can be combined. In this paper, the idea of using inelastic demand spectra within the capacity spectrum method has been elaborated and is presented in an easy to use format. The approach represents the so-called N2 method formulated in the format of the capacity spectrum method. By reversing the procedure, a direct displacement-based design can be performed. The application of the modified capacity spectrum method is illustrated by means of two examples. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of cumulative seismic damage and corrosion on the life‐cycle cost of reinforced concrete bridges

Bridge design should take into account not only safety and functionality, but also the cost effectiveness of investments throughout a bridge life‐cycle. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to compute the life‐cycle cost (LCC) of corroding reinforced concrete (RC) bridges in earthquake‐prone regions. The approach is developed by combining cumulative seismic damage and damage associated with corrosion due to environmental conditions. Cumulative seismic damage is obtained from a low‐cycle fatigue analysis. Chloride‐induced corrosion of steel reinforcement is computed based on Fick's second law of diffusion. The proposed methodology accounts for the uncertainties in the ground motion parameters, the distance from the source, the seismic demand on the bridge, and the corrosion initiation time. The statistics of the accumulated damage and the cost of repairs throughout the bridge life‐cycle are obtained by Monte‐Carlo simulation. As an illustration of the proposed approach, the effects of design parameters on the LCC of an example RC bridge are studied. The results are valuable in better estimating the condition of existing bridges and, therefore, can help to schedule inspection and maintenance programs. In addition, by taking into consideration the two deterioration processes over a bridge life‐cycle, it is possible to estimate the optimal design parameters by minimizing, for example, the expected cost throughout the life of the structure. A comparison between the effects of the two deterioration processes shows that, in seismic regions, the cumulative seismic damage affects the reliability of bridges over time more than the corrosion even for corrosive environments. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

考虑梁端耗能能力影响的钢框架结构易损性分析

一般采用梁柱焊接节点钢框架结构在遭遇强烈地震地震作用下,结构倒塌破坏可能由于是耗能能力不足所导致。以某钢框架结构为算例,选取20条实际地震动记录,对结构进行易损性分析,对比不同损伤指标和不同梁端构造形式的钢框架结构抗震性能差异。研究显示:对梁柱焊接的普通钢框架结构,其倒塌破坏是由于结构耗能能力不足所导致的,评价结构抗震性能不仅需考虑结构变形能力,尚需同时考虑结构耗能能力;对于改进形式的钢框架结构,结构耗能能力得到显著提高,使得位移首超破坏先于累积损伤破坏,此时基于变形的评价结果更加可靠。