Seismic Hazard for Selected Sites in Greece: A Bayesian Estimate of Seismic Peak Ground Acceleration

A procedure for estimating maximum values of seismic peak ground accelerationat the examined site and quantiles of its probabilistic distribution in a future timeinterval of a given length is considered. The input information for the method areseismic catalog and regression relation between peak seismic acceleration at a givenpoint and magnitude and distance from the site to epicenter (seismic attenuation law).The method is based on Bayesian approach, which simply accounts for influenceof uncertainties of seismic acceleration values. The main assumptions for the method are Poissonian character of seismic events flow and distribution law of Gutenberg-Richter's type. The method is applied to seismic hazard estimation in six selected sitesin Greece.     

The Mount Parnitha (Athens) Earthquake of September 7, 1999: A Disaster Management Perspective

Natural Hazards - Strong earthquakes in the proximity of densely inhabited urban areas pose one ofthe most complicated disaster management situations faced by societies today. Herethe experience...     

Predicting average annual groundwater levels from climatic variables: an empirical model

On the basis of one-dimensional theoretical water flow model, we demonstrate that the groundwater level variation follows a pattern similar to recharge fluctuation, with a time delay that depends on the characteristics of aquifer, recharge pattern as well as the distance between the recharge and observation locations. On the basis of a water budget model and the groundwater flow model, we propose an empirical model that links climatic variables to groundwater level. The empirical model is tested using a partial data set from historical records of water levels from more than 80 wells in a monitoring network for the carbonate rock aquifer, southern Manitoba, Canada. The testing results show that the predicted groundwater levels are very close to the observed ones in most cases. The overall average correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed water levels is 0.92. This proposed empirical statistical model could be used to predict variations in groundwater level in response to different climate scenarios in a climate change impact assessment.     

The Advances and Prospects of Research on Earthquake Engineering at IEM

This paper describes briefly the recent advances and acievements of the research projects conducted by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM) in the period of the Ninth Five-Year Plan(1995-2000) with the support of the China Seismological Bureau(CSB),These projects are related with key problems in the field of earthquake engineering.They are:development of the methods for determining earthquake resistant design load level,study on mechanisms of earthquake damage to buildings.development of new technology of base isolation,and study on earthquake damage prediction and seismic losss assessment methods.Through these studies,quite a number of problems have een solved and some of them have een applied in earthquake engineering design and practice.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

战略环境评价若干问题研究

分析了传统环境影响评价制度的不足，回顾了战略环境评价的研究与实践进展，阐述了战略环境评价与环境可持续发展的关系，并对以实现环境可持续发展为目标的战略环境评价体系所存在的问题进行了分析。     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

Some Aspects of Resource Uncertainty and Their Economic Consequences in Assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Natural Resources Research - Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With...     

西藏自治区洛扎县冰湖溃决危险度评价

西藏自治区湖泊星罗棋布,在高山极高山地区分布大量冰湖,受各种因素的影响,有时会产生冰湖溃决并形成灾害。本文根据最新TM遥感影像对西藏自治区洛扎县283个冰湖进行了初步评价。依据冰湖类型、规模、后方现代冰川与冰湖的距离及冰湖离居民地、公路等设施的距离等,将冰湖溃决分为高危险度、中危险度及低危险度。并针对高危险度的冰湖提出防护对策。     

高密度电阻率法二维成像方法及其应用

高密度电阻率法在工程勘察和环境监测中是一种很重要的勘探手段，高密度电阻率法二维成像理论与方法的研究在理论和实际应用上都有着很重要的意义。随着地球物理反演和成像技术研究的兴起和发展，层析成像技术在高密度电阻率法中的应用，提高了高密度电阻率法的勘探质量和精度。本文献电阻率法层析成像技术的前提条件及高密度电阻率法二维成像理论与方法进行了粗浅探讨，最后给出了一些应用实例。