美国实施全球变化研究计划的协作机制及其启示

通过对美国全球变化研究计划的组织结构、资金获取、数据共享等协作机制的介绍,认为一项大规模协作型研究计划的良好实施,需要依法进行立项、从国家层面组建独立的协调机构、有持续稳定的经费投入、对计划进行定期评估和修正,并真正实现科学数据共享。     

随机干预试验——影响评估的前沿方法

在国际上, 影响评估已经逐步成为项目设计的一部分, 其最大的挑战是如何判断结果变化确实是由于项目干预或政策实施所致。影响评估的方法可以分为非试验性影响评估方法和试验性影响评估方法两类。非试验性影响评估的主要方法有事前事后评估比较法、倍差分析法、匹配法、工具变量法、断点回归法等;而试验性评估方法即随机干预试验, 其最大的优点是避免了非试验性评估的选择误差问题。本文在介绍2 类影响评估方法特点的基础上, 重点介绍了随机干预试验的试验设计和操作步骤。开展随机干预试验首先要进行因果链分析, 其次确定干预的单位和随机的方法, 然后进一步分析其他可能对结果变量产生影响的因素, 并在试验设计时加以控制, 最后计算试验规模的大小。随机干预试验的执行过程:第一步是基线调查, 第二步随机选择样本实施干预, 第三步是评估调查。本文以婴幼儿营养健康和教育的影响评估项目为典型案例, 对随机干预试验在中国的实践应用进行了介绍。随机干预试验在影响评估领域具有广阔的应用前景。     

Determination of In Situ Sediment Shear Strength from Advanced Piston Corer Pullout Forces

Abstract

The advanced piston cover (APC) has been used by the Ocean Drilling Program since 1985 for recovering soft sediments from the ocean floor. The pullout force measured on extracting the core barrel from the sediment is shown to correlate with the average shear strength of the sediment core measured in the ship's laboratory. A simple rule of thumb is derived relating the shear strength of the sediment to the pullout force. Multiple APC holes at individual sites allow the consistency of the pullout measurements to be assessed. The effects of different operational procedures during APC coring are also explored. Although generally applicable, the correlation between pullout force and laboratory measurements of shear strength breaks down for some APC holes, possibly because of the disturbance of some sediment types during the APC coring process. A better understanding of the physical process of APC coring, and its effect on the properties of the sediment both inside and immediately outside the core barrel, would indicate what confidence can be put on the measurement of pullout force as a way of evaluating the in situ shear strength of deep sea sediments.     

热带西太平洋海洋系统物质能量交换及其影响——中国科学院海洋先导专项介绍

本文重点介绍海洋专项的科学意义、聚焦的关键问题、研究区域的选择、总体研究思路、实施方案与预期成果。海洋专项面向国家重大战略需求和国际海洋科技前沿,以西太平洋及其邻近海域海洋系统为主要研究对象,从"海洋系统"的视角开展综合性协同调查与研究,在西太暖池对东亚及我国气候的影响机制、邻近大洋影响下的近海生态系统演变规律、西太平洋深海环境和资源分布特征等领域开展系统研究,同时进行我国深海研究探测装备的研发与应用,为提升我国深海大洋理论研究水平,为我国海洋环境信息保障、战略性资源开发、海洋综合管理、防灾减灾、海上丝绸之路建设提供科学依据,为建设"海洋强国"提供科技支撑。     

Net Primary Productivity Increased on the Loess Plateau Following Implementation of the Grain to Green Program

The spatio-temporal characteristics of net primary productivity (NPP) since implementation of the Grain to Green Program (GTGP) are important for understanding ecological restoration of the Loess Plateau in China. Here, we conduct spatio-temporal analysis of NPP using MODIS datasets (500 m, 8-day intervals) and VPM (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model) from 2000-2015. We found that NPP on the Loess Plateau increased significantly from 2000 to 2015 (p<0.05). Significant increases in NPP were observed in core areas of the GTGP, including northern Shaanxi and Lüliang Mountain in Shanxi. NPP in alluvial plains decreased due to urban expansion into cropland. Significant increases in NPP from 2006-2010 were located north of the area of change in 2000-2005. NPP increased across three vegetation types and four slope gradients. In hilly-gully regions prone to soil erosion, such as central and southeastern parts of the Loess Plateau, obvious vegetation restoration was detected.     

Reading the Past,Informing the Future: Progress and Prospective of the Recent Ocean Drilling Researches on Climate and Ocean Change

Aiming at the current climate status, i.e., drastic rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the apparent trend of global warming, the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP), launched in 2013, proposed four scientific challenges, including the response of global climate to CO₂ rise, the feedback of ice-sheet and sea-level to global warming, the dynamics of the mid- and low-latitude hydro-cycle, and the mechanism of the marine carbon-chemical buffering system. By August 2017, eight IODP expeditions of climate-related themes were implemented, focusing on the Neogene evolution of the monsoon system over Asia-Pacific-Indian and the West Pacific Warm Pool, with specific interests in the variabilities and mechanisms of the Asian Monsoon system on orbital-to millennial-scales, as well as the connections between Asian Monsoon and the uplift/weathering of the Tibetan Plateau on tectonic time scale. The planned IODP expeditions in the forthcoming two years will explore the Southern high-latitude climate histories of West Antarctic ice in the Cenozoic, and Southern Ocean currents and carbon cycle in the Cretaceous-Paleogene. In sum, during the current phase of IODP (2013-2023), our knowledge about the marine climate system would be greatly advanced via deciphering the past changes in tropical processes of Asian Monsoon and West Pacific Warm Pool, as well as in high-latitude factors of the West Antarctic ice. A better scientific background of natural variability would be provided, accordingly, for predicting the future tendency in climate change. In this context, China’s strategic directions include the global monsoon concept, the tropical forcing hypothesis, and in particular the climate effect of the Sunda Shelf.     

China's Lunar Exploration Program: Present and future

China launched its first lunar probe, Chang’E-1, at 6:05 p.m. (10:05 GMT), October 24, 2007. Chang’E-1 blasted off on a Long March 3A carrier rocket from the No. 3 launch tower in the Xichang Satellite Launch Center of southwestern Sichuan Province. China National Space Administration performed the lunar orbit injection maneuver for Chang’E-1 at 11:25 a.m. on November 5, 2007 (China Standard Time). Chang’E-1 was injected into the lunar orbit after the maneuver, and will begin to explore the moon in the following 1 year. It is the first step into its ambitious three-phase moon mission, marking a new milestone in the Chinese space exploration history.     

扇束卷积反投影法的程序优化

本文给出在扇束卷积反投影法中为提高运算速度，减少加权反投影运算量的一种程序优化方法和实验结果，并分别给出被测物体正反时针旋转时加权反投影的两种公式。     

岩体节理抗剪强度的巴顿方程评价(英文)

根据实验室的抗剪强度试验, 本文对巴顿方程进行新的讨论并提出新的评价方法。实验室完成了一组岩体结构面的抗剪强度 (, )试验后, 利用抗剪强度资料来模拟巴顿方程的三个参数 (, JRC, JCS)在理论上可以用偏导数求解, 但由于巴顿方程的特殊性, 实际上是不可能的。     

VB应用程序访问SQL Server方法探讨

讨论了Visual Basic应用程序访问SQL Server数据的几种常用的方法分别说明了每种方法的内部机理，并给出了每种方法的一个实例，最后 比较了每种方法的性能和优缺点。