Trends in the Different Grades of Precipitation over South China during 1960–2010 and the Possible Link with Anthropogenic Aerosols简

Using observed daily precipitation data to classify five levels of rainy days by strength in South China （SC）,with an emphasis on the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region,the spatiotemporal variation of different grades of precipitation during the period 1960-2010 was analyzed and the possible link with anthropogenic aerosols examined.Statistical analysis showed that drizzle and small precipitation has significantly decreased,whereas medium to heavy precipitation has increased slightly over the past 50 years （although not statistically significant）.Further data analysis suggested that the decline in drizzle and small precipitation probably has a strong link to increased concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols produced by large-scale human activities related to the rapid socioeconomic development of the PRD region.These aerosols may also have led to the obvious decreasing trend in horizontal visibility and sunshine duration in SC,which is statistically significant according to the t-test.     

中国东部降水的气候模态及雨季划分

应用中国东部地面观测气候平均候降水量数据和谐波分析方法,研究了华南、长江中下游、淮河流域、华北四个区域降水的年变化特征,特别是夏季风降水的阶段性和区域特征,并对构成降水年变化的气候分量进行分析,将各区降水年变化分解为年循环模态、季节模态、季节内振荡和月内振荡四个气候模态。结果表明:不同模态间的相互调制对降水的阶段性和区域性具有重要影响,年循环是影响雨季的主要模态,季节和季节内振荡模态对决定主汛期起重要作用。基于气候模态划分中国东部雨季和主汛期,方法简单,结果客观合理。     

Long-term relationships between climate oscillation and basin-scale hydrological variability during rainy season in eastern Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT

The high variability in the hydrological regime of the Eastern Hydrological Region (EHR) of Northeast Brazil often results in floods and droughts, leading to serious socio-economic issues. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate connections between spatiotemporal hydrological variability of the EHR and large-scale climate phenomena. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to relate climate indices with hydrological variables within two representative river basins in the EHR. The results indicated a multi-annual relationship between the state of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and anomalous hydrological variability in the basins. In addition, the northern Tropical Atlantic conditions were shown to play an important role in modulating the long-term variability of the hydrological response of the basins, whilst only extreme ENSO anomalies seemed to affect the rainy season. This knowledge is an important step towards long-term prediction of hydrological conditions and contributes to the improvement of water resources planning and management in the EHR.     

汶川地震灾区汛期地质灾害督导与地质灾害防治

“5.12”汶川特大地震发生后,灾区防灾形势异常严峻,为增强灾区各级政府应急抢险技术力量,省主利害部门积极协调组织多支专业队伍开展灾区汛期地质灾害督导、排查、巡查、应急抢险调查及防治知识宣传培训等工作,极大地提升了各级政府地质灾害防治能力,取得了显著的防灾减灾效果,为夺取灾后恢复重建及全省地质灾害防治工作的重大胜利提供了坚实保障.     

Study of Statistical Characteristics of wet Season Hourly Rainfall at Hulu Watershed with Γ Function in Qilian Mountains

The probability distribution of the wet season hourly precipitation is the important basis for the study of the precipitation distribution, especially in mountainous areas. Hulu watershed is the study area located in the upper reaches of Heihe River, Qilian Mountains. By adopting the maximum likelihood estimation, the shape parameter α and scale parameter β of 6 stations were obtained with observed wet season (May to September) half hourly data, and different intensity precipitation probability density distribution, cumulative probability density and probability of precipitation and elevation and precipitation relationship were analyzed. The shape parameter α and scale parameter β is significantly negatively correlated, shape parameter α and average hourly precipitation distribution is consistent. Local topography is also an important factor to affect the precipitation redistribution and the probability distribution of precipitation in Hulu watershed. In addition to the increase of precipitation events, the probability of 1~3 mm mm/h precipitation increases with the altitude, which is the main reason for the increase of precipitation with altitude.     

Surface temperature forecast skill comparison for the west coast of Saudi Arabia

Given the growing interest of the general public in accessing commercial weather forecasts through various media outlets and the available impetuses for promoting tourism in Saudi Arabia (SA), a first attempt is made to present a forecast skill comparison for surface temperature in four cities (Wejh, Yenbo, Jeddah, and Gizan) along the west coast of SA, for the 61-day transitional period (from January 16 to March 16) between the December-January-February (DJF) and the March-April-May (MAM) seasons. A simple skill score comparison method is used to assess the next-day city forecasts for surface temperature from six commercial weather forecast providers based on the operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model outputs. All the NWP model forecast providers performed better than the respective daily climatology (Clm) for each station. Depending upon the station and the provider, the absolute average maximum daily surface temperature difference between the forecasts and the observations was less than 2 °C. Daily surface temperature forecasts from two versions of an atmospheric-ocean general circulation model are also compared to assess their performance for these coastal locations.     

基于集对分析的赣江中上游流域汛、枯水期分期研究

南方红壤丘陵区洪涝和季节性干旱灾害并存,合理划分汛、枯水期可为旱涝灾害防控提供科学依据。本文选取并统计赣江上中游国家气象站、水文站旬最大1日降水量、旬最大3日降水量、旬降水总量和旬平均流量,采用集对分析,将赣江上中游流域汛期划分为2月1~28日为汛前期,3月1~31日为前汛期,4月1日~6月30日为主汛期,7月1日~9月10日为汛后期,9月11日~次年1月31日为枯水期。集对分析汛期分期结果与传统汛期相近,理论基础完善,可用于赣江上中游流域水资源综合管理。     

Diurnal movements of the New Zealand fur seal at Kaikoura

At Kaikoura the greatest number of seals were ashore during mid afternoon, especially when this coincided with low tide. This is the best time of the day to count them.     

东南沿海前汛期与后汛期降水的比较分析

本文通过对东南沿海前汛期降水与后汛期降水的多年气候变化及500hPa环流场和北太平洋海温场对比分析发现:前汛期降水与后汛期降水在年代际变化上差异明显。前汛期降水逐年变化幅度小,大旱、大涝年少;后汛期降水逐年变化幅度大,大旱、大涝年多。前汛期降水与后汛期降水的大旱、大涝年环流形势场和海温场均存在明显差异。在与北半球500hPa高度场和北太平洋海温场的相关分布上,表现出基本相反的分布类型。计算分析还发现,前期8～9月和冬季1～2月北半球副高,尤其是太平洋副高与前汛期降水相关尚好。前期1月赤道洋流区中部海域的海温,对前汛期降水均有较好的预测指示意义。前期2月北大西洋涛动和黑潮区以东至太平洋中部海域的海温对后汛期降水具有较好的预测指示意义。     

长江河口南港枯季沙波对安全航行的影响研究

基于1997年、2002年、2006年枯季长江河口南港床面形态的现场观测,分析沙波发育对水深的影响。结果表明:(1)枯季南港沙波一般分布于吴淞口至中段121°44.′5E细砂、粉砂质底床区间,呈逐年向下游扩大的趋势,发育尺度由西向东逐渐变小,河床沉积物粒度组成由上游至下游逐渐细化,分选性变差;(2)沙波波高一般为0.2～1.31m,平均为0.47m,波高沿程向下游递减,水深均处于15m的上段波高虽最大可达1.31m,但足以通行第四代集装箱船,而水深降至11.8m的中段,最大波高可达0.80m的沙波发育将直接影响第四代集装箱船的乘潮入港条件。