台风“麦莎”的强度对台风前部飑线发展过程影响的研究

对2005年8月5日16时(UTC,下同)至6日00时发生的一次台风前部飑线过程进行了数值模拟,分析表明:台前飑线在母体台风和副高之间的湿区生成。台风为这次台前飑线过程提供了有利的条件,包括强的低空急流输送充沛的水汽,强的不稳定环境产生大的对流有效位能以及强的地表辐合,使得初始的离散的对流单体组织发展形成台前飑线。成熟时期的台前飑线虽然比中纬度和热带飑线的变压强度小,但是具有更强的低层暖湿空气入流,中层的入流范围也更加宽广。敏感性试验结果表明:台风强度越强,其台前飑线的回波强度越强,移动速度更快,生命史也更长。强台风使得低空垂直风切变更大,有利于台前飑线的生成和发展,在台前飑线发展成熟后,低空垂直风切变强度减小,不利于台前飑线的维持,加之低空水汽输送的减少,使其逐渐趋向衰亡。     

大理州潜在蒸散量的计算及应用

利用云南大理州12个气象站1961—2010年气温、日照、风速、蒸发量等观测资料,运用彭曼—蒙蒂斯公式计算大理州潜在蒸散量及湿润度指数,并对大理州潜在蒸散量的时空分布特征进行分析,对干旱情况进行评价。结果表明,大理州潜在蒸散量东部大,南部次之,北部最小。月潜在蒸散量5月最大,12月最小,1—5月递增,5—12月递减。1994—2010的平均潜在蒸散量明显大于1961—1993年。大理州潜在蒸散量与降水量、水汽压、气温、净辐射呈显著正相关关系,与风速没有明显的相关关系。正常年份大理州11月至次年5月都存在不同程度的干旱。     

黄河三角洲农牧业生产潜力

本文从对黄河三角洲的宜农地和宜牧地的分析入手,对该区农作物生产潜力、牧草及载畜量潜力进行了探讨。并针对目前农牧业生产水平和存在的问题,提出了相应的对策。     

The effect of transient eddy on interannual meridional displacement of summer East Asian subtropical jet

Using ERA-40 reanalysis daily data for the period 1958-2002,this study investigated the effect of transient eddy(TE) on the interannual meridional displacement of summer East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ) by conducting a detailed dynamical diagnosis.The summer EASJ axis features a significant interannual coherent meridional displacement.Associated with such a meridional displacement,the TE vorticity forcing anomalies are characterized by a meridional dipole pattern asymmetric about the climatological EASJ axis.The TE vorticity forcing anomalies yield barotropic zonal wind tendencies with a phase meridionally leading the zonal wind anomalies,suggesting that they act to reinforce further meridional displacement of the EASJ and favor a positive feedback in the TE and time-mean flow interaction.However,The TE thermal forcing anomalies induce baroclinic zonal wind tendencies that reduce the vertical shear of zonal wind and atmospheric baroclinicity and eventually suppress the TE activity,favoring a negative feedback in the TE and time-mean flow interaction.Although the two types of TE forcing tend to have opposite feedback roles,the TE vorticity forcing appears to be dominant in the TE effect on the time-mean flow.     

对流涡度矢量垂直分量在西南涡暴雨中的应用

将对流涡度矢量 (CVV) 应用于浅薄系统西南低涡引发的暴雨中,特别是将对流涡度矢量垂直分量 (C_z) 应用在2010年7月16—18日由西南涡引发的一次暴雨过程诊断中。研究了CVV垂直积分的各个分量与6 h累积降水量的关系,尤其是CVV垂直分量在西南涡暴雨过程中的指示意义。诊断结果表明:CVV垂直分量与西南涡引发的暴雨有一定对应关系,强降水发生时段与C_z垂直积分峰值出现的时间对应一致;在对流层低层850 hPa水平分布上,暴雨区位于CVV垂直分量的正值中心附近,偏向其梯度较大处;沿暴雨中心的CVV垂直分量,当对流层低层至高层呈现一致的正值时,暴雨强度会明显加强。     

一次缓慢东移的黄河气旋暴雨的诊断分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和常规气象资料,对2001年6月28-29日发生在河南的一次黄河气旋暴雨过程进行了诊断分析。结果表明：黄河气旋的稳定少动是造成这次暴雨的直接原因,高层辐散与中层正涡度平流对黄河气旋形成和发展起了重要作用。这次过程的水汽主要来自副高东南侧的海上,孟加拉湾的水汽也有一定的贡献。暴雨区的中低层对称不稳定的存在,导致上升运动和水汽输送的加强,造成降水的增幅。     

湿位涡诊断分析在河南台风远距离降水中的应用

应用湿位涡理论,分析了两个发生在河南的台风远距离降水个例,讨论了湿位涡与台风远距离降水形成的关系。结果表明：两个个例中,河南具有有利于强降水发生的湿位涡特征;异常暴雨的发展与湿位涡的变化有很好的对应关系：湿位涡的异常区域对应着最强的降水,对流层高层ζMPV1（湿位涡的垂直分量）正值区与低层ζMPV2负值区相互作用,即高层下滑的干冷空气与中低层由东南急流输送的高温高湿空气交汇,容易储存和释放湿对流不稳定能量,有利于强降水产生。湿位涡理论在河南台风远距离降水诊断中有很好的应用前景。     

高空形势与山东半岛冷流暴雪的关系

采用常规观测资料和NCEP1°×1°资料,对山东半岛2005年、2008年、2010年的几次典型冷流暴雪过程进行了分析。分析结果表明：冷流暴雪的高空形势主要分为高空冷涡型和高空横槽型。高空冷涡型较高空横槽型降雪量偏大,暴雪站点多。高空冷涡型500hPa层以上的位涡值较高空横槽型偏大,高层位涡有利于低层正涡度的加强,促使低层产生低压环流及辐合上升运动,上升运动加强了海面水汽的垂直输送,故高空冷涡型上升速度较高空横槽型强,湿层较厚,高空冷涡型较高空横槽型更容易产生暴雪过程。     

Study on the Dynamic Characteristics of an Eastward-offshore Mesoscale Vortex along the Meiyu-Baiu Front

The eastward-moving Meiyu-Baiu frontal mesoscale vortices (MBFMVs) appear frequently and often cause heavy rainfall events along their tracks. A move-off-shore MBFMV was selected to enhance our understanding of this type of vortex. Synoptic analyses indicate that the MBFMV is a type of meso-α vortex and mainly occurs in the lower troposphere. A short wave trough near the coastline is highly favorable for the formation, sustainment, and displacement of the MBFMV. Vorticity budgets indicate that at lower levels of the MBFMV, convergence is the dominant factor for the increase of positive vorticity, and at high levels of the MBFMV, the vertical transportation associated with convective activities is the most important factor. The hori-zontal transportation was the main factor decreasing the positive vorticity. The land and sea environments are crucial to the evolution of the MBFMV. The characteristics of the Meiyu-Baiu Front (MBF) are also vital to the variation of the vortex.     

INSTABILITY OF SYMMETRIC TYPHOON CIRCULATION AND ADAPTIVE OBSERVATION

This study presents a new way to identify the sensitive areas for typhoon adaptive observations, that is, sensitive areas are determined by invoking the negative anomalies of moist potential vorticity (MPV). It is found that the areas of negative MPV are the symmetric instability areas and can be taken as sensitive areas for typhoon adaptive observations. Three typhoons in 2008, Nuri, Fung-wong, and Fengshen, were simulated with the help of MM5 model. It is shown that these typhoons are well simulated in the first 12 hours. Based on these investigations, the calculations of MPV are carried out sequentially. The result shows that the negative maxima of MPV are always around the typhoon eyes for all the cases, which means that the sensitive areas are also near them all the time.