Forecasting rates of hydrocarbon discoveries in a changing economic environment

A method is presented for the estimation of undiscovered oil and gas resources in partially explored areas where economic truncation has caused some discoveries to go unreported; therefore distorting the relationship between the observed discovery size distribution and the parent or ultimate field size distribution. The method is applied to the UK's northern and central North Sea provinces. A discovery process model is developed to estimate the number and size distribution of undiscovered fields in this area as of 1983. The model is also used to forecast the rate at which fields will be discovered in the future. The appraisal and forecasts pertain to fields in size classes as small as 24 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Estimated undiscovered hydrocarbon resources of 11.79 billion BOE are expected to be contained in 170 remaining fields. Over the first 500 wildcat wells after 1 January 1983, the discovery rate in this areas is expected to decline by 60% from 15 million BOE per wildcat well to six million BOE per wildcat well.     

Fault linkage patterns and their control on the formation of the petroleum systems of the Erlian Basin, Eastern China

Fault linkage patterns in rift basins are very common. While the process of fault linkage may be very short, it changes sedimentation patterns before and after linkage and controls the development of half-grabens. The propagation and growth of boundary faults can be divided into a simple fault propagation pattern and a fault growth-linkage pattern. Based on structural style, sedimentation patterns and oil-source correlations in the Erlian Basin, three types of grabens and petroleum systems can be identified. The Abei graben is controlled by a single boundary fault and forms an independent petroleum system. The Saihantala graben is controlled by several linked faults, which also has an independent petroleum system. The Wuliyasitai Depression controlled by two boundary fault segments which results in two petroleum systems. As not all half-grabens develop one petroleum system; they may, therefore, have two or more systems. The relay ramps between fault segments before linkage are the locations of deposition of sands and conglomerates, and consequently, are the focus areas for stratigraphic–lithologic trap exploration.     

Restoration of oiled mussel beds in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Natural loss of hydrocarbons was often low from mussel (Mytilus trossulus) beds (which were typically not cleaned after the Exxon Valdez oil spill), thus this habitat remained a long-term source of oil. Consequently, experimental restoration of nine contaminated beds was attempted in 1994; mussels were removed, contaminated surface sediment was replaced (33 metric tons), and original mussels were returned. Hydrocarbon concentrations and mussel populations were monitored for 5 years thereafter. Post-restoration mussel population fluctuations were indistinguishable from regional changes. Increased short-term oil loss was apparent, but long-term (5 year) improvement was equivocal and difficult to distinguish from natural losses. By 1999, oil concentrations in mussels were typically at baseline levels in restored and oiled reference beds; concentrations in replaced sediment were elevated in one third of restored beds, indicating recontamination from underlying or surrounding sediment. Our results suggest mussel relocation is feasible but suggest oil might more effectively be removed from sediment mechanically or chemically than manually.     

Quantitative estimation of petroleum prospect outcome probabilities: an overview of procedures

Estimation of prospect outcome probabilities in numerical form should be a central objective for petroleum geologists. Most numerical estimates of outcome probabilities represent subjective guesses. While the effectiveness of subjective procedures is difficult to gauge, several postmortem analyses suggest that subjective procedures are ineffective. Objective procedures for estimating outcome probabilities should yield much improved estimates. Objective procedures require that geological, geophysical and production data be organized so that geological and geophysical characteristics of prospects interpreted before they were drilled can be compared systematically with outcomes of prospects after they have been drilled. An example application that involves well data and an example application that involves seismic data demonstrate that objective procedures are simple in principle, but require organization of information in a form suitable for computation of frequencies, on which objective estimates of probabilities can be based.     

Speculative petroleum systems of the southern Pelotas Basin,offshore Uruguay

The Pelotas Basin of Brazil and Uruguay represents a frontier basin with under-explored hydrocarbon potential. Although oil and gas accumulations have yet to be identified, only 21 exploratory wells have been drilled in an area of more than 330,000 km², 20 of which are located in the Brazilian portion of the basin. A detailed study of the petroleum system of offshore Uruguay has strong potential to contribute to a better characterization of the capacity of the basin to generate and accumulate hydrocarbons. Three stages have previously been recognized during the evolution of Pelotas basin: (1) a prerift phase which preserved Paleozoic and Mesozoic units of the Paraná Basin; (2) an Early Cretaceous volcano-sedimentary synrift phase; and (3) a Cretaceous to Cenozoic postrift phase deposited during the passive margin stage. In this study, we use sequence stratigraphy methodology to interpret 2D multichannel seismic sections of the southern segment of the Pelotas Basin in the Uruguayan Atlantic margin. This analysis allows us to identify depositional sequences, systems tracts and the distribution of the main elements of the potential petroleum systems. Following our analysis, we propose six speculative petroleum systems (SPS) in the Pelotas Basin. The first SPS is related to the prerift phase and is represented by a Lower Permian restricted marine source rock and reservoirs related to Permian to Upper Jurassic aeolian and fluvial sandstones. The second SPS corresponds to the synrift phase and is constituted by a Barremian lacustrine source rock with reservoirs of alluvial/fluvial sandstones of the same age. The other four proposed SPS are associated with the postrift phase, represented by marine source rocks related to Aptian-Albian, Cenomanian-Turonian and Paleocene transgressions, all of which are identified in the region and interpreted in seismic lines from Uruguay. These postrift SPS have predominantly siliciclastic reservoirs represented by Early Cretaceous aeolian sandstones and Cretaceous to Cenozoic deltaic sandstones and turbidites.     

The 1974 spill of the Bouchard 65 oil barge: petroleum hydrocarbons persist in Winsor Cove salt marsh sediments

Petroleum hydrocarbons persist in salt marsh sediments in Winsor Cove (Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts) impacted from the 1974 spill of No. 2 fuel oil by the barge Bouchard 65. Intertidal sediment cores were collected from 2001 to 2005 and analyzed for total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs). TPHs content was greatest (as high as 8.7 mg g(-1) dry weight) in the surface sediments and decreased with distance landward. Select samples were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with values as high as 16.7 microg g(-1) for total naphthalenes and phenanthrenes/anthracenes. These remaining PAHs are mainly C(4)-naphthalenes and C(1)-, C(2)-, and C(3)-phenanthrenes/anthracenes revealing preferential loss of almost all of the naphthalenes and the parent compound phenanthrene. Inspection of the data indicates that biodegradation, water-washing and evaporation were major removal processes for many of the petroleum hydrocarbons in the marsh sediments. In addition, historical data and photographs combined with their recent counterparts indicate that erosion has physically removed these contaminants from this site.     

塔里木盆地草湖凹陷油气勘探的基本条件及前景分析

“九·五”期间 ,我们对塔里木盆地库尔勒鼻凸—草湖凹陷油气勘探靶区进行了详细的研究。这个地区 ,经过十余年勘探 ,成果不理想。因此 ,有的研究者认为无进一步勘探的价值 ,有的专家则认为是有利的后备区。通过研究 ,我们认为 ,库尔勒鼻凸由于长期暴露 ,无进一步勘探价值 ;而草湖凹陷虽不是象阿克库勒凸起那样的优越的勘探区 ,但仍具备一定勘探前景 ,可以作为较为有利的后备接替勘探区。有利区块为小干湖区块和草 1井区块 ,其次是草湖凹陷西斜坡。     

From data gathering to resources assessment: A holistic view of petroleum geology

To integrate geological data to obtain an interpretation of the geology and natural resources of an area, we need a methodology that provides a holistic approach, addressing all basic issues in geological relations as well as uncertainties that arise with the evolution of basic geological knowledge of an area.In spite of the major role played by geoinformatics—the application of mathematics, statistics, and computer science to solve geological problems—we do not yet have a properly designed method for organizing geological data, including raw data, conceptual models, modeling results, and geological integration. Such a rapid method should provide for updating of existing interpretations based on new data or new theories.A systematic view of data integration and interpretation is important in petroleum exploration and petroleum engineering. We point out the more striking tools already available but of restricted use and some of the possible solutions for known problems that still require research and development.     

Characterization of sediments in an abandoned mining area; a case study of Mansfeld region,Germany

The distribution of selected heavy metals, including some radionuclides, metalloids and non-metals was determined in stream sediments in a region influenced by abandoned copper mining and ore processing activities. A considerable amount of the ore processing waste with a very complex composition and highly elevated concentrations of zinc, sulfur, lead, copper, arsenic, and a lot of other elements in the range between 100 and 1,000 mg/kg (Sb, Mn, Ni, Cr, Cd, Hg, and Ag) was piled up on mine dumps. The dispersion of the pollutants originating from this source and their environmental impact were investigated. Both, sediments and original waste material were studied to indicate the pathways and the mobilization behavior of different pollutants. For this purpose, the process of the elution of pollutants by application of different fractionation schemes was studied. The capabilities of different analytical techniques are shown for the analysis of solid samples (X-ray fluorescence spectrometry, Gamma-spectrometry) and liquid ones (ICP-atomic emission spectrometry, ICP-mass spectrometry and different techniques of atomic absorption). Additionally, the coupling of ion chromatography and ICP-MS detection was used to study the distribution of arsenic species in the sediment cores of a lake which acts as a natural sink for the region.     

Organic biomarkers for tracing carbon cycling in the Gulf of Papua (Papua New Guinea)

Sediment traps were deployed in the Gulf of Papua in June–July 1997, to determine fluxes of organic matter and inorganic elements from the photic zone to deeper waters at the base of the continental slope and in the northern Coral Sea. Three stations, ranging from 900 to 1500 m depth, had “shallow” traps at 300 m below the water surface and “deep” traps set 100 m above the bottom. Infiltrex II water samplers collected particulate and dissolved organic matter from the Fly, Purari and Kikori rivers, and near-surface water from the shelf of the Gulf of Papua. Samples were analysed for molecular organic biomarkers to estimate the sources of organic carbon and its cycling processes.Dry weight fluxes from the shallow traps ranged from 115 to 181 mg m⁻² day⁻¹ and particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes ranged from 1.2 to 1.9 mM OC m⁻² d⁻¹ with molar organic carbon to particulate nitrogen ratios (C/N) ranging from 6.0 to 6.5. Fluxes in deep traps were likely influenced by both early diagenesis and entrapment of resuspended shelf sediments. Dry weight fluxes in deep traps ranged from 106 to 574 mg m⁻² day⁻¹ and POC fluxes ranged from 0.6 to 1.5 mM OC m⁻² d⁻¹, with C/N ratios ranging from 8.5 to 10.8. ¹³C/¹²C ratios were −20.2‰ to −21.7‰ in all trap samples, indicating that most of the settling POC was “marine-derived”. Shallow traps had δ¹⁵N values of 6.3‰ to 7.2‰ while the values in deep traps were 4.9–5.0‰, indicating the N-rich near-surface OC was less degraded than that in the deep traps. The biogenic lipids consisted of hydrocarbon, sterol and fatty acid biomarkers indicative of marine zooplankton, phytoplankton and bacteria. Sterol markers for diatoms and dinoflagellates were abundant in the water samples. Highly branched isoprenoid alkenes, usually attributable to diatoms, were also detected in both water and shallow traps. Traces of C₂₆–C₃₄ n-alcohols indicative of land–plant biomarkers, were found in river water samples and in the shallow sediment traps. A large unresolved complex mixture (UCM) of hydrocarbons, and a uniform distribution of n-alkanes, indicative of petroleum hydrocarbons, were also detected in the traps. Hopane and sterane biomarkers detected in the trap oil were characteristic of a marine carbonate source, and the aromatic hydrocarbon composition distinguished at least two different oil signatures.We concluded that mass and POC fluxes were similar to those reported for other continental shelves and marginal oceans in tropical and subtropical regions. There was a dramatic decrease in POC as particles sank, due to zooplankton repackaging and photochemical and bacterial decomposition. Carbon isotopic and biomarker patterns showed most of the POC in the sediment traps was marine-sourced with only traces of terrestrial input. There was a significant flux of petroleum, which may signal the existence of natural petroleum seeps in this region.