年最大日雨量极值分布拟合与推算

采用红河州12个站近48～58年的年最大日雨量资料,用PearsonⅢ型分布、耿贝尔分布、对数正态分布等3种概率分布模型分别进行了拟合,选择拟合最好的分布模型来估算最大给定重现期极值.结果表明:3种分布均能较好地拟合年最大日雨量的分布,在红河州12个站的拟合中,有7个站用耿贝尔分布,4个站用Pearson-Ⅲ分布,1个...     

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.     

绿色交通目标下集装箱“公转铁”的CO2减排潜力评估

为提高集装箱“公转铁”减排潜力评估结果的准确性,在分析“公转铁”减排原理的基础上,综合考虑空箱调运和重箱运输“门到门”运输链的干线运输、端点装卸、电力设备作业、集卡短驳、公铁中转等排放,引入反映活动类型、设备结构、能源生命周期排放的参数,对作业活动-方式结构-能耗强度-排放因子（ASIF）方法进行改进,建立“公转铁”减排潜力评估框架。以义乌—宁波港域出口集装箱运输为例,通过实地调研和公开文献获取数据,进行实证研究。结果表明,如果忽略必要因素将会导致每TEU运输需求“公转铁”的CO₂减排率被高估0.50~36.73个百分点;最佳“公转铁”情景可减排3.42万t CO₂,相应减排率为13.58%。研究结果可为政府相关部门客观评估“公转铁”的减排潜力、制定有效的“公转铁”政策措施提供理论支持。     

二维能量平衡模式中大气温度对二氧化碳增温效应的响应

利用一个考虑了辐射能传输的二维能量平衡气候模式,解析地分析了二氧化碳浓度改变后冰界纬度的变化,得到了冰界纬度随CO2浓度变化的关系以及全球平均温度的变化曲线.结果表明,当CO2浓度由工业革命前的280×10-6增加到700×10-6时,冰界仅后退(北半球向北)几个纬度;当CO2的浓度继续增加时,冰界纬度会加速向极地退缩,直至出现全球无极冰覆盖的现象.同样地,当CO2浓度由280×10-6增加到700×10-6时,全球地表平均温度虽然在增加,但增加的速率很小,并且增加的速率在减小,而当大于700×10-6之后,温度增加的速率会快速增大,温度将加速上升.对不同反照率进行敏感性试验,发现当反照率从0.1到0.32时,结果并没有显著地改变,即结果对反照率的变化并不敏感.这一计算结果表明,在目前的状态下,由CO2引起的增温作用似乎处于变化很小的准饱和状态,即目前气候不会因为CO2浓度的增加而迅速变暖.较为实际的情形可能是大气温度在缓慢增加到一定程度后才会迅速升高.这并不意味着可以忽视CO2的增温效应,因为根据计算结果,这个临界值大概在700×10-6左右,当CO2浓度增加到超过临界值之后,气温会剧烈上升,气候将会处在一个非常温暖的阶段.     

中国大陆卫星反演云参数的评估

该文选取１９８３年７月和１９８４年１月份代表夏季和冬季，利用中国地面气象月报的云量资料以及多年平均的地面观测云气修资料，与中国大陆地区ＩＳＣＣＰ卫星反演的去量和云状资料进行了对比分析。参照大气环流和云天气气候特征，从卫星得到的从云状是比较合理的，但干旱沙漠地区的高云量的估计不足，低云估计偏多。     

上海城市二氧化碳排放空间特征

构建上海1 km CO₂排放网格,分析市域（UB1）、市辖区（UB2）、建成区（UB3）和城区（UB4）4个城市范围的CO₂排放特征。上海市域CO2排放空间格局是以中心城区为核心,排放水平向外递减,形成了3个梯度。空间自相关分析表明,排放在空间上存在显著的集聚效应,部分地区高强度的经济活动和能源活动对周边区域的排放有显著影响。UB4是上海城市的最佳表征,2007年UB4内CO₂排放达到1.89亿t,人均排放12.04 t;UB4排放占UB1排放的75.40%,UB1人均排放比UB4人均排放高12%。上海城市化和工业化在空间上的高度重合,导致高排放源集聚于UB4内,形成UB4的高排放特征。个别网格的排放量已经占到区域或者城市总排放量的10%～20%;前10高和前100高排放网格,其累积排放总量分别占据了3个城市范围（UB1、UB3和UB4）总排放量的60%和80%以上。     

闪电产生氮氧化物对青藏高原臭氧低谷形成的影响

为了进一步了解青藏高原闪电的产生氮氧化物（LNO_x）经由光化学反应对O₃浓度变化及夏季O₃低谷形成的可能影响,本文利用2005~2013年由OMI卫星得到的对流层NO₂垂直浓度柱（NO₂ VCD）、O₃总浓度柱（TOC）和O₃廓线以及星载光学瞬变探测器OTD和闪电成像仪LIS获取的总闪电数资料,对青藏高原和同纬度长江中下游地区的TOC和NO₂ VCD月均值时空分布特征、闪电与NO₂ VCD的相关性和O₃的垂直分布特征及其与LNO_x的关系进行了对比分析。结果表明,青藏高原的O₃低谷主要出现在夏季和秋季,其TOC值比同纬度长江中下游地区低约10~15 DU（Dobson unit）。青藏高原NO₂VCD总体较小,表现为夏高冬低的分布特征。青藏高原夏季O₃浓度受南亚高压的影响总体呈减小趋势,但因强雷暴天气导致对流层中上部LNO_x浓度升高,并随强上升气流向对流层顶输送,同时通过光化学反应使O₃浓度增加,缩小了青藏高原和同纬度地区的O₃浓度差,减缓了O₃总浓度的下降,抑制了夏季O₃低谷的进一步深化。     

近百年全球平均气温年际变化型态的低频变率特征

利用时间上扩展的经验正交函数（TEEOF）分析方法，对近百年全球及南北半球平均气温一年、三年、六年和十年的变化形态及其频率进行诊断，结果表明，TEEOF第一模态占总方差贡献的50％以上，各种年际振动的第一模态基本上代表了与气候变化有关的年变化型，并能反映出气温的长期趋势变化，特别是十年际的第一模态，冬季气温湿示出较强的上升趋势，相应的第一时间主分量趋势与实际温度序列的走势非常一致。全球及南北半球各时域TEEOF除第一模态及一年TEEOF的第模态外，其它特同量所表示的年际变化型态各有差异，相应主分量都与一定的年际准周期振动结构的长期变率有关。年变化型态的T^2检验表明，南半球及全球的突变时间与年平均气温单要素t检验结果差异不大，而北半球的差异明显，表明T^2检验，对具有多变量的型态突变的检测比单要素的t检验理为合理。     

Influence of leaf water potential on diurnal changes in CO2 and water vapour fluxes

Mass and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and vegetation are driven by meteorological variables, and controlled by plant water status, which may change more markedly diurnally than soil water. We tested the hypothesis that integration of dynamic changes in leaf water potential may improve the simulation of CO₂ and water fluxes over a wheat canopy. Simulation of leaf water potential was integrated into a comprehensive model (the ChinaAgrosys) of heat, water and CO₂ fluxes and crop growth. Photosynthesis from individual leaves was integrated to the canopy by taking into consideration the attenuation of radiation when penetrating the canopy. Transpiration was calculated with the Shuttleworth-Wallace model in which canopy resistance was taken as a link between energy balance and physiological regulation. A revised version of the Ball-Woodrow-Berry stomatal model was applied to produce a new canopy resistance model, which was validated against measured CO₂ and water vapour fluxes over winter wheat fields in Yucheng (36°57′ N, 116°36′ E, 28 m above sea level) in the North China Plain during 1997, 2001 and 2004. Leaf water potential played an important role in causing stomatal conductance to fall at midday, which caused diurnal changes in photosynthesis and transpiration. Changes in soil water potential were less important. Inclusion of the dynamics of leaf water potential can improve the precision of the simulation of CO₂ and water vapour fluxes, especially in the afternoon under water stress conditions.     

CO2浓度渐增对气温影响的敏感性试验

使用辐射对流模式，研究了中纬度冬季气温对于ＣＯ２浓度变化的敏感性。结果表明：气温变幅随ＣＯ２浓度渐增呈现先快后慢的非线性特征；气温变幅具有一定的稳定性。