A seismological overview of long-period ground motion

Long-period ground motion has become an increasingly important consideration because of the recent rapid increase in the number of large-scale structures, such as high-rise buildings and oil storage tanks. Large subduction-zone earthquakes and moderate to large crustal earthquakes can generate far-source long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins with the help of path effects. Near-fault long-period ground motions are generated, for the most part, by the source effects of forward rupture directivity. Far-source long-period ground motions consist primarily of surface waves with longer durations than near-fault long-period ground motions. They were first recognized in the seismograms of the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1966 Parkfield earthquakes, and their identification has been applied to the 1964 Niigata earthquake and earlier earthquakes. Even if there is no seismogram, we can identify far-source long-period ground motions through the investigation of tank damage by liquid sloshing.     

Twenty years of change in the Fijian periphery: The case of the Kadavu Island

This paper reviews changes in the development and peripheralized status of the Fijian island of Kadavu from a 20‐year perspective. A combination of microgeographic studies in three villages and a mesogeographical analysis show that the conditions of internal dependency found in Kadavu in the early 1980s had not changed much: the pattern of cash crop production and trade remained almost entirely dependent on the yaqona (Pacific kava) beverage crop; shipping services provided by core agents had not improved; the island had experienced significant outmigration; and government initiatives to change the trend were limited. These elements perpetuate a core–periphery structure in Fiji that hampers the development of a self‐sufficient periphery. For Kadavu villagers, however, the benefits derived from the continued form of non‐capitalist production afford them a certain degree of autonomy vis‐à‐vis the market economy, which might be to their advantage under the ongoing conditions of peripheralization.     

Heating rate dependency of petroleum-forming reactions: implications for compositional kinetic predictions

The generation of bulk petroleum, liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons from the Duvernay Formation was simulated by heating immature kerogens in a closed system (MSSV pyrolysis) at four different heating rates (0.013, 0.1, 0.7 and 5.0 K/min). Using the established parallel reaction kinetic model, temperature and compositional predictions were tested to be suitable for geological conditions by comparing the laboratory results with natural changes in source bitumens and reservoir oil maturity sequences from the Duvernay Formation. In the case of bulk liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, the above kinetic calculations can be considered valid because their maximum yields are independent of laboratory heating rates. In contrast, the contents of paraffins, aromatics and sulfur compounds show a pronounced heating rate dependence. Extrapolated to geological heating rates, the compositional predictions are consistent with the bulk composition of natural products in the Duvernay-petroleum system showing an increase of paraffinicity and hydrogen content. In contrast to that, the “hump” decreases with decreasing heating rate, a trend which is confirmed by the low amounts of unresolved compounds in natural high maturity products. Because of these heating-rate dependent compositional changes, geological predictions of natural molecular composition by the commonly used kinetic models are not suitable.     

Bifurcation and chaos of an articulated loading platform with piecewise non-linear stiffness using the incremental harmonic balance method

The bifurcation behavior of an articulated loading platform subjected to harmonic excitation is investigated by the incremental harmonic balance (IHB) method. The platform is modeled as a single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) non-linear system with piecewise non-linear restoring force characteristics. The elements of the Jacobian matrix and the residue vector arising in the IHB formulations are derived in closed form. The path-following procedure using the arc length continuation method is used to trace the response curves and bifurcation diagrams. The periodic solutions and the subharmonic solutions obtained by the IHB method compare very well with the numerically integrated solutions. The bifurcation points also compare well with the numerically obtained results. The system exhibits chaotic motion through a sequence of period doubling bifurcations. Isolated period 3 solutions are also present. The Lyapunov exponents are computed and the initial condition map corresponding to coexistent attractors are obtained by the interpolated cell mapping (ICM) method.     

中国土地利用/土地覆盖的多尺度空间分布特征分析

研究了我国土地利用影响因素及其空间规模相关性,采用数理统计与ＧＩＳ手段从多个规模尺度上探讨了我国土地利用的空间分布特征。其结果对全国以及各级政府进行土地利用规划、制定相应的土地开发与利用政策等具有一定的参考意义。     

西藏扎布耶碳酸盐型盐湖卤水相化学研究

中国盐湖资源丰富,且水化学类型齐全。西藏扎布耶盐湖位于西藏高原腹地,该湖卤水水化学类型为碳酸盐型,已处于盐湖演化晚期,是一个固液共存的盐湖矿床,具有很好的工业开发价值。笔者分别在15℃、25℃下对该卤水进行了等温蒸发实验,研究了在此两个温度下卤水中各元素富集行为和盐类矿物析出规律。并通过讨论其与国内外碳酸盐型和硫酸盐型锂盐湖的卤水蒸发路径和矿物析出异同,指出扎布耶盐湖具有其独特的卤水蒸发析盐路径。在本实验中低温有利于卤水中锂的富集,而高温有利于硼的富集,碳酸锂和钾盐交叉析出,低温时钾的矿物主要为钾石盐,高温时主要为钾芒硝,高温有利于获得高品位的碳酸锂混盐。     

BCC-CSM2-MR模式对北极海冰和气候的模拟及预估

基于第六次耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6),使用新一代全球模式BCC-CSM2-MR的历史试验和未来共享社会经济路径(SSPs)数据,依据Hadley中心的海表面温度和海冰密集度数据及NCEP/NCAR I再分析资料,评估了BCC-CSM2-MR模式对北极海冰及北极气候的模拟能力,并对未来变化进行了预估.结果表明:BCC...     

北京市居民汽车使用的特征及其影响因素

目前,中国城市私人汽车的拥有量高速增长,小汽车不仅日益成为居民日常出行的重要交通方式,更深刻影响着城市的空间结构和道路的拥堵状况。然而,目前国内对汽车使用的研究仍十分匮乏。为此,本文试图基于2011 年11 月到2012 年7 月在北京进行的一项问卷调查数据,分析家庭汽车使用行为的特征、强度及影响因素。描述性统计和（定序Logistic） 回归分析结果显示,汽车使用目的、建成环境和各种家庭/个人社会经济特征对大城市居民的汽车使用强度和依赖度有重要影响。其中,通勤是居民日常使用汽车的主要目的;公共交通条件较差和停车条件便利是促使居民大量使用汽车的重要原因;婚姻状态、工作状态、家庭规模和家庭内持有驾照的成员数等对居民的日常汽车使用也有重要影响;周末与工作日的汽车使用频次或时长没有显著差异。这些发现对道路交通规划和交通政策的制定有重要参考意义。不过,要想更有效地控制汽车使用行为,未来的研究仍有必要增强对因果关系、出行的限制条件和影响交通行为的心理机制等问题的考察。     

GPM卫星反演降水产品在江苏地区的适用性

以江苏省70个地面雨量站分钟观测数据为基准,对比分析了一个完整年周期GPM卫星搭载的双频降水雷达(DPR)反演降水产品精度。结果表明DPR常规模式(NS)、匹配模式(MS)和高灵敏度模式(HS)扫描产品反演降水与地面雨量计观测数据均在过境后几分钟内达到最佳匹配效果。以NS产品为例,全年反演降水均方根误差大致为2mm/h,相关系数在0.5以上,相对偏差为-20%左右。并且降水产品在夏季反演精度最高。对反演误差进行初步分析发现,卫星反演降水率算法精度对校正因子ε有非常强的敏感性,并且选择ε值的算法约束不足会导致最终计算求解模块SLV的路径积分衰减PIA值异常,引起极端降水反演的误差。     

Local path dependence of U.S. socioeconomic exposure to climate extremes and the vulnerability commitment

Despite improvements in disaster risk management in the United States, a trend toward increasing economic losses from extreme weather events has been observed. This trend has been attributed to growth in socioeconomic exposure to extremes, a process characterized by strong path dependence. To understand the influence of path dependence on past and future losses, an index of potential socioeconomic exposure was developed at the U.S. county level based upon population size and inflation-adjusted wealth proxies. Since 1960, exposure has increased preferentially in the U.S. Southeast (particularly coastal and urban counties) and Southwest relative to the Great Plains and Northeast. Projected changes in exposure from 2009 to 2054 based upon scenarios of future demographic and economic change suggest a long-term commitment to increasing, but spatially heterogeneous, exposure to extremes, independent of climate change. The implications of this path dependence are examined in the context of several natural hazards. Using methods previously reported in the literature, annualized county-level losses from 1960 to 2008 for five climate-related natural hazards were normalized to 2009 values and then scaled based upon projected changes in exposure and two different estimates of the exposure elasticity of losses. Results indicate that losses from extreme events will grow by a factor of 1.3–1.7 and 1.8–3.9 by 2025 and 2050, respectively, with the exposure elasticity representing a major source of uncertainty. The implications of increasing physical vulnerability to extreme weather events for investments in disaster risk management are ultimately contingent upon the normative values of societal actors.