中国交通CO2排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

通过构建交通CO₂排放模型对2000~2012年中国30个省（市）的交通CO₂排放时空演变特征进行了分析。并采取“由大到小”逐步回归的建模方式,在传统的固定效应模型（面板数据模型）基础上引入时间固定效应,构建了双向固定效应模型对中国交通CO₂排放的社会经济、城市形态、交通发展等方面的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：2000~2012年期间,中国交通CO₂排放总量和人均交通CO₂排放量分别以9.29%和8.69%的年均增速增长,前者的区域差异呈先增后减趋势,后者的区域差异则首先呈周期性波动,而后一直保持减少趋势。人均GDP和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入对人均交通CO₂排放具有显著的正向效应,表明社会经济发展和居民收入水平提高是交通CO₂排放增长的主要驱动因素。城市人口密度对交通CO₂排放亦具有显著的正向效应,这意味着未来中国应加强对城市人口密度的规划控制,以避免因人口过度集聚而额外增加产生交通CO₂排放。公共交通发展水平对交通CO₂排放增长具有显著的负向效应,但小汽车拥有率对交通CO₂排放的影响并不显著。     

Spectroscopy of solar prominences from space and ground

Two quiescent solar prominences were observed in July 2000 from SUMER aboard SOHO and from the two German solar telescopes at Tenerife. Two‐dimensional images taken at the VTT simultaneously in the spectral lines Hβ at 4862 Å and Ca II at 8542 Å show no significant spatial variation of their pressure‐sensitive emission ratio. Slit spectra of the Ca II 8542 Å and He I 10830 Å lines obtained at the Gregory‐Coudé telescope yield 8000 K < T_kin < 9000 K and 3 km/s < V_n–th < 8 km/s. Among the various spectral ranges observed with SUMER, we first investigate the Lyman emission lines, which were fitted by Gaussians yielding reliable spectral radiances and line widths for the series members 5 < k < 18. A determination of the level population gives for the lower series members a Boltzmann temperature of 60 000 K, the higher members being over‐populated. This temperature indicates an origin of the Lyman lines from hot surroundings of the cool prominence body seen in the ground‐based data; this also holds for the ‘hotter’ SUMER lines.     

从234Th的固/液分配看海洋胶体的作用

1994—1995年期间,利用β计数法实测了南沙群岛海域、南海东北部海域、厦门湾塔角附近海域和九龙江河口区共计116份海水样品中溶解态与颗粒态234Th的放射性比活度。结果表明,颗粒态234Th占总34Th的份额大小顺序为：九龙江河口区＞厦门海塔角附近海域＞南沙海域。南海东北部海域。234Th的条件分配系数Kd介于1．1×104—20×106dm3／kg之间,平均为2．2×105dm3／kdKd与总悬浮颗粒物含量（7SAN呈负相关关系：lg（Kd）＝－0．59·lg（TSM）＋5．67,这一“颗粒物浓度效应”可归因于海洋胶体物质的存在。由上述关系获得4个研究海区胶体浓度与悬浮颗粒物浓度的函数关系：Cc＝f（TSM0．59）。     

THREE-DIMENSIONAL CALCULATION OF PARTICLE-LIQUID TWO-PHASE TURBULENT FLOW IN A HYDRAULIC TURBINE RUNNER

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Addressing regional disparities in allowance allocation in China’s national emissions trading scheme

China's national emissions trading scheme (ETS) is expected to be operational in 2017. Effectively addressing regional disparities at the provincial level in allowance allocation will greatly affect the acceptance of the allocation approach and thus deserves careful consideration. This article aims to explore possible approaches for addressing regional disparities, by introducing regional adjustment factors (RAF) in free allowance allocation. Based on the principle of ‘national unified rules?+?stricter adjustment by provincial authorities’, four single factorial and three multi-factorial methods are proposed to calculate the RAFs, through a normalization process. These methods are associated with the most acknowledged factors dealing with regional disparities, including per-capita GDP; per-capita CO₂ emissions; industrial sector contribution to GDP; economy-wide emissions control targets and CO₂ emissions per unit GDP, per unit power and heat output and per unit industrial added value. A comparative analysis is made for the seven methods, in regard to value distribution and level of matching regional political demand.

Key policy insights

• ‘Allowing stricter regional adjustment’ represents a dominant feature for China's national ETS, which aims to address regional disparities and government demands.

• How the adjustment plan is designed will have a major influence on the operation of the national ETS and regional business competitiveness. Provincial governments need to consider the trade-off between auction revenue and local business competitiveness.

• Applying the different methods leads to more scattered results for some regions, for whom the choice of adjustment approach will therefore have a greater impact.

• Based on the analysis, four adjustment methods that generate similar results – the per-capita GDP-based method, the intensity reduction target-based method, the 12th FYP target-based method and intensity-based grandfathering – are recommended for most provincial-level regions, with some exceptions.

     

Analysis of Stock Market Development and CO2 Emissions on OECD Countries via an Empirical Model

Accompanying economic growth, CO₂ emissions have polluted the natural environment worldwide. This study highlights the special problems with stock market development and CO₂ emissions in 25 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries during 1971–2007 to trace the trend of CO₂ emissions while countries grow their economies. A panel‐data model is applied to analyze the relationships between stock market (SM) development, energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), and CO₂ emissions in 25 OECD countries. Low‐GDP countries show different results from high‐GDP countries in the trends of SM development and CO₂ emissions, and dynamic effects occur in SM development and CO₂ emissions under various GDP conditions. There is a negative relationship between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries enjoy high economic growth, which means that these countries avoid CO₂ emissions through SM development. However, a positive relationship is found between SM development and CO₂ emissions if countries experience low economic growth, which means that SM development does not show the boycott‐effect relationship with CO₂ emissions when countries experience low levels of economic development. This study shows a correlation between SM development and CO₂ emissions among OECD countries.     

新疆碳排放影响因素分析与政策建议

气候变化和二氧化碳减排问题已引起全世界的关注.本文运用岭回归分析1995-2008 年新疆碳排放与人口、经济、技术间的关系,并进一步探讨了产业结构和主导产业对碳排放的影响,以寻找减排的技术路线和对策,推动区域低碳经济的发展.结果表明：①不合理的经济结构和人口增长对碳排放有显著的推动作用,技术进步虽在一定程度上缓解了碳排放,但影响甚微;②新疆过分依赖自然资源的经济增长方式和以第二产业为主的经济结构是导致温室气体排放量增加的主要原因;③研究期间,新疆的主导产业均为以石油天然气开采、石油化工、煤化工为主的重工业,但其在工业总产值的比重却有较大提升,导致对能源的消耗急剧增加.未来在全球化背景下,新疆应转变经济增长模式,加大生态保护力度,更多地依靠科技创新、技术进步和制度的改进,大力发展低碳产业.     

Phase Composition of Flood Sediments of the German-Polish Odra River Immediately after the Flood Event in 1997

Immediately after the flood event in summer 1997 at the Odra river, samples of flood sediments were taken for a complex phase analysis. The realized investigations show that the sampled flood sediments are very inhomogeneous. The main reasons for this substantial condition are surely different states of flow during the flood event. It is possible to characterize the investigated material as middle to fine sands with variable phase compositions. The mineral content of the fraction <2 μm shows a complex composition of amorphous matter, quartz, feldspars, and a different composed clay mineral matter. A high distribution of several mixed layers in the clay mineral phase is detectable. Within the scope of the taken analyses the following minerals were detected: kaolinite (disordered), kaolinite/smectite-mixed layer, chlorite/smectite-mixed layer, montmorillonite, illite/smectite-mixed layer, celadonite. The investigation of the heavy fraction shows heavy minerals and heavy particles of different geneses. Mainly these are geogenic, transparent heavy minerals like zircon, amphibole, garnet, pyroxene, apatite, rutile, and epidote. Furthermore there were analysed geogenic, opaque heavy minerals (magnetite and ilmenite), anthropogenic, opaque heavy particles (fly ashes and slags), and biogenic components (pyrite framboids). The substantial character of the investigated flood sediments (e.g. content of organic matter, content of clay minerals) shows that this material is able to act as a fixation medium of contaminants.     

Total Organic Carbon (TOC) as a Sum Parameter of Water Pollution in Selected Polish Rivers (Vistula,Odra, and Warta)

This paper reports on total organic carbon (TOC) and its fractions dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) studied in different Polish rivers. The samples investigated came from the Vistula, Odra, and Warta rivers, and were compared with similar data on river waters available in the literature. The DOC concentrations ranged from 10.0 to 14.2 mg/L and did not vary during the vegetative season. The POC values considerably increased from May through September and reached a maximum in summer. Results for the years 1991τ1996 evidenced a significant increase in the POC value for the Polish rivers from 10.8 to 24.5 mg/L, in comparison with analogous values for West European rivers and North American ones. The enhanced values of TOC and POC were interpreted as being due to anthropogenic pollution.     

Palynofacies classification of submarine fan depositional environments: Outcrop examples from the Marnoso-Arenacea Formation,Italy

Basin floor fans contain some of the largest deep-water hydrocarbon accumulations discovered, however they also demonstrate extremely complex stratigraphic architecture, understanding of which is crucial for maximum recovery. Here we develop a new method, based upon palynofacies analysis, for the distinction of the different depositional environments that are commonly associated with basin floor fans. Previous studies and our sedimentological analysis allow good confidence in the discrimination of the different depositional environments of the outcropping Marnoso-Arenacea Formation fan system. One hundred and thirty-five samples were collected from mudstones in conjunction with sedimentary logging of 871 m of outcrops. Six lithofacies associations are described and interpreted to represent lobe axis, lobe fringe, fan fringe, contained interlobe, basin plain, and starved high depositional sub-environments. Palynofacies of these elements demonstrate turbidites to be rich in terrestrial organic matter, with sixteen categories of matter recognised. The abundances and proportions of particles varies between sub-environments, with lobe axis deposits containing the largest, densest particles, with a transition to ever smaller and lighter particles moving toward the basin plain. Fuzzy C-means statistical analysis was used to explore this trend. Distribution of organic matter is not random, but is dominated by hydrodynamic sorting and sequential fall-out of particles as turbidity currents passed across the basin. This allows a palynofacies classification scheme to be constructed to assist the identification of depositional environments of submarine fans, which may be combined with subsurface data to assist reservoir characterisation.