Transferability of hydrological model parameters between basins in data-sparse areas, subarctic Canada

Hydrological models used for the simulation of runoff are often calibrated only on the basis of data obtained at the catchment outlet but the parameters thus derived are then applied to the simulations for the subbasins. Such a practice is common for the data-sparse areas such as the subarctic. However, it may yield erroneous results when the calibrated model parameters are applied to basins of various sizes, or with divergent physical characteristics. This study assesses the feasibility of transferring parameter estimates derived for one basin of a particular size to other basins of different dimensions, using the SLURP model for simulation and the Liard and two of its subbasins as an example. Results indicate that other than the snowmelt factor, the parameter values obtained from the subbasins are similar, but values of several parameters (e.g. maximum capacity of the soil water and groundwater storage, and snowmelt factor) are different from those derived for the large basin. Compared with applying the Liard basin parameters, the subbasins parameter sets generate higher evapotranspiration, earlier termination of the snowmelt period, more soil water storage, a shorter period with significant soil water storage and a better overall agreement between the observed and simulated runoff. It is recommended that adequate attention be given to the transferability of the parameter values to improve the simulation of subbasins hydrology.     

Na~+,K~+∥Cl~-,SO_4~(2-),CO_3~(2-)—H_2O五元体系25℃介稳相图的理论计算

本文建立在Pitzer电解质溶液理论的基础上,分别由Gibbs生成自由能和平均溶度积计算了Na~+,K~+,//Cl~-,SO_4~(2-),CO_3~(2-)-H_2O五元体系介稳相图。计算结果表明,前者偏离实验值,而后者与实验测定的介稳相图相吻合。由直线规则计算了内蒙古哈同察汗淖碱湖卤水的等温蒸发路线,结果令人满意。     

不同方法计算的气温平均值差异分析

利用1961～2002年699个国家基本（基准）站的时值气温观测资料,分析了我国不同方法计算的气温平均值的差异。结果表明：平均气温计算值由于受4次观测、3次观测不同的计算方法的影响,造成4次、3次观测记录平均值产生一定差异。其差异在空间分布中具有明显的特征,西部、北部地区3次平均值偏高;东南部地区3次平均值偏低。中西部地区4次、3次气温平均值的差异具有扩大的趋势,是由于最低气温的升高引起的。因此,在使用气温平均值时,要充分重视平均气温值的计算方法,避免误差。     

利用调液阻尼器减振的结构控制研究进展

调液阻尼器（ＴＬＤ）是一种新型而有效的结构减振装置。本文论述了这方面研究及应用的进展情况，内容包括：一、ＴＬＤ的优越性和发展历史；二、理论计算模型；三、试验研究；四、ＴＬＤ在实际结构中的应用及测试；五、值得进一步探讨的问题。     

粒子滤波非线性AVO反演方法

提出一种新的AVO非线性反演方法,即利用粒子滤波器来求解AVO非线性贝叶斯反演问题,利用随机带权样本逼近后验概率.论文首先论述了粒子滤波器的基本原理,包括状态转移模型与观测模型,权值预测与更新,重要性密度采样等粒子滤波器应用中的关键技术.然后建立了适合于AVO反演的粒子滤波器状态转移模型和观测模型.最后,利用该方法分别对模型数据和实际资料进行了反演计算.反演结果表明,该方法具有较好的稳定性,在AVO反演中具有的一定的应用潜力.同时对地球物理反演的其他问题求解也提供了一条新的途径.     

基于贝叶斯理论的AVO三参数波形反演

在实际的AVO反演问题中,叠前数据体中的噪声或其他因素严重影响了AVO反演问题的适定性,而采用先验地质信息作为AVO反演问题的约束条件是解决AVO反演问题不适定的一种可行方法. 文中的似然函数采用了[WTBX]ι[WTBX]p范数的解,并用Cauchy分布表示先验模型参数的分布. 以此为基础,在反演中建立了测井数据的参数协方差矩阵对反演过程进行约束,并采用了共轭梯度算法实现多参数非线性的反演过程. 同时,为了提高反演精度,避免动校正拉伸及依赖于炮检距的调谐效应对参数估计的影响,反演采用动校前地震数据进行参数估计. 从应用效果分析来看,即使叠前道集的信噪比不高,反演的结果也能较好地与实际情况相匹配,为识别储层流体性质提供了新的手段.     

Fuzzy synthetic evaluation of water quality of Naoli River using parameter correlation analysis

In order to improve the effectiveness of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation （FSE） models, a Parameter Correlation Analysis （PCA） was introduced into the FSE and a case study was carried out in the Naoli River in the Sanjiang Plain, Northeast China. The basic principle of the PCA is that the pairs of parameters which are highly correlated and linear with each other would contribute the same information to an assessment and one of them should be eliminated. The method of the PCA is that a correlation relationship among candidate parameters is examined before the FSE. If there is an apparent nonlinear or curvilinear relationship between two parameters, then both will be retained; if the correlation is significant （p〈0.01）, and the scatter plot suggests a linear relationship, then one of them will be deleted. However, which one will be deleted？ For solving this problem, a sensitivity test was conducted and the higher sensitivity parameters remained. The results indicate that the original data should be preprocessed through the PCA for redundancy and variability. The study shows that introducing the PCA into the FSE can simplify the FSE calculation process greatly, while the results have not been changed much.     

Analyzing the Relation Between Earthquakes and Active Faults Based on the Parameter Optimization Model

The gestation and occurrence of strong earthquakes are closely related to fault activity, which is not only revealed by abundant experimentation and seismism but also proved by modern seismology. On the Chinese mainland, the relation between earthquake activity and active faults is one of the bases for partitioning potential seismic sources, analyzing the seismotectonics and estimating location of strong earthquakes.Due to the nonuniformity of earth media, instability of observation systems and disturbance of the environment, etc, the variety of observational data is complicated, that is, there is no absolutely "normal" or "abnormal", and seismic anomalies can be divided into many mutually exclusive "abnormal states". In different conditions of combined time-space-strength, determining seismic anomalies by different monomial forecast methods and its efficiency could be different due to the uncertainty of a precursor itself or complexity of the relationship between a precursor and earthquake gestation. It is very difficult to discover and dispose of this difference in actual application in a "two-state" model. But in a "multi-state" model, the difference can be easily reflected and the optimal combination of forecasting parameters for a forecast method can also be determined easily.Based on the "multi-state" precursory model and the optimization method for parameters of earthquake forecast model under the condition of optimal forecast efficiency, the relationship of the spatial location of earthquake with M≥6.0 and active faults in three seismic belts are analyzed. The results demonstrate that in the Hetao Seismic Belt, seismicity is mostly concentrated in the range of 20 km along the fault, the optimization model can forecast the location of potential earthquakes of M≥6.0 near the faults with a relatively high accuracy and the reliability is 0.5; while in the Qilian Mt. Seismic Belt, the reliability only reaches 0.14 when we use the model to estimate earthquakes within 30 km range along the faults. The "multi-state" precursory model, the efficiency-evaluating model and the parameter selection of individual earthquake forecast model based on optimal efficiency are of certain revelatory and practicable meanings for developing knowledge about precursors, investigating the laws of earthquake preparation and searching for optimal forecasting methods.     

The parameter distributions of the integer GPS model

 A parameter estimation theory is incomplete if no rigorous measures are available for describing the uncertainty of the parameter estimators. Since the classical theory of linear estimation does not apply to the integer GPS model, rigorous probabilistic statements cannot be made with reference to the classical results. The fact that integer parameters are involved in the estimation process forces a reappraisal of the propagation of uncertainty. It is with this purpose in mind that the joint and marginal distributional properties of both the integer and non-integer parameters of the GPS model are determined. These joint distributions can also be used to determine the distribution of functions of the parameters. As an important example, the distribution of the vector of ambiguity residuals is determined. Received: 30 January 2001 / Accepted: 31 July 2001     

土石混合体砾-土接触面参数的敏感性分析

土石混合体作为一种特殊的地质体在自然界中广泛分布,由强度较高的岩石块体、细土颗粒和充填其间的孔隙组成。随着各类大型工程建设的兴起和发展,与土石混合体相关的地质灾害严重影响和制约了工程的建设和人类的安全,因而对土石混合体的研究至关重要。本文从细观角度出发着重研究土石混合体中砾石和土体之间的接触性质,利用FLAC3D接触面单元模拟了土石混合体中的砾-土界面,首先构建了包含接触面的土石混合体三维数值模型,其次选取了接触面参数的合理变化范围,通过对数值模拟结果的分析,探讨了参数的敏感性,发现刚度,特别是法向刚度对土石混合体应力-应变曲线和砾-土的相对运动影响最大,其次是黏聚力,摩擦角的影响最小。通过与无接触面模型的对比,验证了包含接触面单元土石混合体三维模型的可行性和合理性。接触面单元的引入使精确描述土石混合体的宏观变形特征及砾-土间的相互作用机制成为可能。