Site response analysis using one-dimensional equivalent-linear method and Bayesian filtering

Site response analysis is crucial to define the seismic hazard and distribution of damage during earthquakes. The equivalent-linear (EQL) is a numerical method widely investigated and used for site response analysis. Because several sources of uncertainty are involved in this type of analysis, parameters defining the numerical models need to be identified from in-situ measurements. In this paper, a Bayesian inference method to estimate the expected values and covariance matrix of the model parameters is presented. The methodology uses data from downhole arrays recorded during earthquakes. Two numerical applications show the good performance and prediction capabilities of the proposed approach.     

羊拉铜矿区岩石力学模拟与采场结构参数确定

采用三维弹塑性有限元程序3D-σ对羊拉铜矿的岩石力学进行模拟,并据此提出采场结构参数,对羊拉铜矿开采具有较好指导作用。     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R² = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.     

地震活动性参数的确定

本文基于目前国际上比较先进的地震危险性概率法，讨论了其中各地震活动性参数的具体确定方式及在实际工作中应该注意的问题。     

湍流高阶矩模式中的参数研究

该文为高阶矩湍流方程组的二阶矩闭合方案提供了参数组选择。此参数组是用近地层实测资料结合湍流方程二阶矩闭合方案推算出的。然后，将其与Mellor等人在实验室所得的参数组分别代入湍流二阶矩闭合方程组拟合，得动量(ΦM(ξ))、热量(ΦH(ξ))与稳定度(ξ)的二组关系曲线，可见此二组曲线几乎重合，且与Businger野外近地层实测结果符合较好。拟合的垂直速度方差((W*2)1/2(ξ))、温度方差((θ*2)1/2(ξ))与ξ的二组关系曲线相对于UTAH资料，所得曲线偏差比Mellor曲线偏差小得多，而相对于KANSAS资料，所得曲线偏差稍大于Mellor曲线。     

设计地震反应谱的双参数标定方法及其应用

近年的工程地震工作,如地震小区划、重大工程场地的危险性分析等,一般都要做设计谱标定。既反映局部场地条件,又反映地震环境的双参数标定设计谱的方法,已为工程界接受。作为该方法的应用,本文采用澜沧——耿马地震的强震资料,重新确定了设计反应谱的形状参数,给出了反映云南地区地震特性的设计谱,可供中、小型工业与民用建筑抗震设计时参考使用。     

Parameter evaluation and optimization for multi-resolution segmentation in object-based shadow detection using very high resolution imagery

Object-based shadow detection in urban areas is an important topic in very high resolution remote sensing image processing. Multi-resolution segmentation (MRS) is an effective segmentation method, and is used for object-based shadow detection. However, several input parameters within MRS may result in unstable performance for final shadow detection; thus, the evaluation and optimization for the parameters upon the final shadow detection accuracy cannot be overlooked. In this paper, the three parameters in MRS (scale s, weight of colour w_color and weight of compactness w_compact) upon the final result of a recently proposed method, object-based shadow detection with Dempster–Shafer theory, were evaluated and optimized by sensitivity analysis and Taguchi’s method with three experimental data. Experiments show that scale s is the most sensitive parameter among the three parameters within MRS. More importantly, according to the Taguchi’s method theory, there is a very significant interaction effect between s and w_color, which cannot be overlooked. The shadow detection accuracy yielded by the optimum parameter combination in consideration of the interaction effect is higher than that only optimized by covering the main effect of single parameter in most cases.     

On the Role of Wind Direction in ERS SAR Signatures of Internal Waves on the Iberian Shelf

The relationship between internal wave (IW) signatures in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images and wind velocity is investigated. The effect of the wind velocity relative to the IW propagation direction on the IW signature is studied by means of a defined signature mode parameter ( S m ). S m is the parameter that quantifies the signature of the IW intensity profile in relation to the mean backscatter of the image background.

A wind contrast model based on a simple first-order Bragg scattering theory is combined with hydrodynamic modulation theory to explain the modulation of IW signatures. It takes into account the modulation of short-scale surface waves by the effect of the relative variations of wind velocity and the surface currents generated by the IWs.

It is shown that the signature mode parameter increases with the angle between the wind velocity and the IW propagation direction so that IWs propagating against the wind direction are imaged mostly as positive sign signatures, while those propagating in the wind direction are mostly negative sign signatures.     

澳门地质概况

对澳门的泥盆系、第三系、第四系地层出露作了叙述，说明了花岗闪长岩、黑云母粗粒花岗石等几篑夺浆岩的分布及岩性特征，详细地论述了区内８条断裂构造，概述了碎石、建筑材料等矿产资料。     

Field variability of landslide model parameters

 A data set of parameters (slope, soil depth and soil shear strength) relevant to spatially distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by rain and snowmelt events was determined from field measurements in 250 grid elements of dimensions 25 m (downslope)×10 m (across slope) in an area of 250 m×250 m on a hillslope in Scotland. These data provide an unusually detailed basis for the evaluation of spatial variability and uncertainty in model parameterisation. The variations in slope and soil strength are represented adequately by normal distributions; a Weibull distribution is suggested for the soil depth data. The factor of safety calculated at each point in the grid was shown partially to identify observed landslides, with a number of false predictions of occurrence. Trend analysis and semivariogram analysis of the data set suggest that the use of kriging could improve upon this approach to landslide prediction by providing areal estimates of parameters at the grid element scale with associated error bounds. Received: 30 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997