地理国情普查中地表覆盖分类数据典型问题解析

由于地理国情普查是一个全新的、有别于其他测绘项目的新兴项目,在生产过程中难免会出现各种各样的问题。本文结合生产实际,对于地表覆盖分类数据生产过程中出现的一些特征明显、问题集中的错误进行归类解析。     

城市地下空间安全监测与预警指标研究

为保障城市地下空间开发利用的安全性,促进城市可持续发展,通过文献调研、现场调查和专家咨询等方法,分析提出城市地下空间监测的五项原则,将监测对象划分为三类：工程结构本体、周围岩土体以及周边环境。将监测指标归纳为变形类、力学类、振动类和宏观状态类共四类,其中变形类指标执行双控要求,其他三种指标执行单控要求。监测趋势预测分析可采用公式法、回归分析法、时间序列分析法、灰色预测法、神经网络法和支持向量机法等。全国各地监测控制值基本一致,但预警分级标准存在地区差异,其中北京市和广州市分级预警具有较大参考价值。目前城市地下空间安全监测存在七项不足：预警分级标准不完善,人工监测效率低,监测参数单一,监测信息缺少共享协同,测量精度较低,重监测轻预测以及缺乏数据融合和机器学习应用。针对这些问题,可采取七项措施进行改进：建立合理预警分级标准,发展自动化与智能化监测,多参数综合监测,应用远程监测与云平台,开发高精度测量设备,监测和预测并重,以及数据融合与机器学习应用。     

内蒙古大型银矿集区地球化学预测

如何利用地球化学填图数据预测潜在大型矿集区是寻找大型矿床亟待解决的问题.本文利用1:20万区域化探扫面数据和1:100万中蒙边界地球化学填图数据进行综合研究,在全区共圈出面积大于1000km2银的地球化学省40个,其中具有良好Ag-Pb-Zn综合异常的有31处.内蒙已发现的4处大型银矿有3处位于地球化学省内,已发现的11处中型银矿有10处位于地球化学省或区域异常内,这说明大型银矿与地球化学省有高度的相关性.大型银矿区银异常强度(异常内银平均含量/背景含量)大于1.5.利用面金属量模型和地球化学块体模型对31处潜在的大型银矿区的潜在资源量进行了预测.     

河南省卢氏县张家山铁矿地质特征及成因浅析

通过对张家山铁矿床矿体与围岩的接触关系、蚀变特征、矿石的矿物组合、化学组分等地质特征及成因的分析研究,认为张家山铁矿床应属风化淋滤型铁矿床,其原生矿床为铁多金属硫化物矿床,并厘定了该地区铁矿的找矿标志.     

Inversion of multiple thermal indicators: Quantitative methods of determining paleoheat flux and geological parameters. II. Theoretical development for chemical, physical, and geological parameters

Using the logic for quantitative inversion of present-day downhole thermal indicators, the inversion procedure can be used to determine unknown, or poorly known, chemical and physical parameters as well as other geological quantities of interest which impact on burial history and thermal history of an evolving sedimentary basin. Some such quantities are: amount of erosion and timing of unconformities, paleo-overpressuring, stratigraphic age, timing of igneous intrusion and insertion temperature, overthrust timing and frictional heating, fault and slump timing, effects due to emplacement of a radiocative layer, and salt emplacement and dissolution timing. Combining a priori unknown values of these chemical/physical and geological parameters with unknown (a priori) paleoheat flux variations, a theoretical scheme, called thermal indicator tomography, is developed for the systematic determination of all parameters at the same time and on the same footing. Case histories will be discussed in subsequent papers in this series.     

新疆伊吾淖毛湖金矿床地质特征及成矿模式

根据对淖毛湖金矿床地质特征分析,认为淖毛湖金矿床的形成与火山一岩浆及构造活动关系密切.沿构造蚀变带产出的黄铁绢英岩出露地段往往是金矿体产出地段,是直接找矿标志.下泥盆统托让格库都克组火山岩地层、浅成的小规模中酸性侵入体(如闪长玢岩、闪长岩等)、岩屑化探Au、Ag、As、Co、Cu、Zn综合异常分布范围以及激电测量表明的低阻中高极化异常区带,均是间接找矿标志.     

环鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤重金属风险评价及来源分析

通过评价环鄱阳湖区10个县农家菜地土壤样品重金属的潜在生态风险,分析其与9个社会经济指标间的灰色关联度来探讨重金属的污染来源。结果显示,鄱阳湖区各菜地土壤中Cd的超标情况最严重,超标率达到90%,除部分地区Cu超标外,其余重金属均未超标。鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤达到轻微生态风险,工业较发达地区重金属生态风险较大于工业落后地区,工业发展情况对湖区的空间污染分异有较大影响。蔬菜产量、工业发展情况、城镇化率、交通业发展情况和菜地土壤不同种重金属具有较高关联度,而地区生产总值、农药使用量对各种重金属含量的影响最弱。     

Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology

Globally, many built-up areas are threatened by multiple hazards which pose significant threat to humans, buildings and infrastructure. However, the analysis of the physical vulnerability towards multiple hazards is a field that still receives little attention although vulnerability analysis and assessment can contribute significantly to risk reduction efforts. Indicator-based vulnerability approaches are flexible and can be adjusted to the different hazards as well as to specific user needs. In this paper, an indicator-based vulnerability approach, the PTVA (Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment), was further developed to be applicable in a multi-hazard context. The resulting multi-hazard version of the PTVA consists of four steps: the identification of the study area and relevant hazards as well as the acquisition of hazard information, the determination of vulnerability indicators and collection of data, the weighting of factors and vulnerability assessment and finally, the consideration of hazard interactions. After the introduction of the newly developed methodology a pilot application is carried out in the Faucon municipality located in the Barcelonnette basin, Southern French Alps. In this case study the vulnerability of buildings to debris flows, shallow landslides and river flooding for emergency planning and for general risk reduction purposes is assessed. The implementation of the methodology leads to reasonable results indicating the vulnerable buildings and supporting the priority setting of different end-users according to their objectives. The constraints of the presented methodology are: a) the fact that the method is not hazard-intensity specific, thus, vulnerability is measured in a rather qualitative and relative way and b) the high amount of data required for its performance. However, the advantage is that it is a flexible method which can be applied for the vulnerability analysis in a multi-hazard context but also it can be adjusted to the user-specific needs to support decision-making.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

江汉和江南西部春玉米涝渍指标及风险评估

以江汉和江南西部地区春玉米为研究对象,利用研究区域内57个气象站1961-2012年的逐日降水量资料、春玉米生育期资料和春玉米涝渍灾情资料,筛选春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害样本。采用多元线性回归分析方法,定量分析当前过程降水量和前期降水量对春玉米涝渍灾害的影响,并据此构建当量降水量。基于正态分布的Lilliefors检验和t-分布区间估计方法,计算不同生育时期、不同等级涝渍灾害的当量降水量指标阈值,由此构建该区域春玉米不同生育时期的涝渍灾害等级指标并进行独立样本验证。在此基础上,利用信息扩散理论风险评估方法,计算各站点的春玉米涝渍致灾风险指数。结果表明:当前过程降水量和前2旬降水量对该区域春玉米涝渍灾害有显著性影响;构建的区域春玉米涝渍等级指标能够较好地反映实际受灾情况,指标验证结果与历史记录有较高一致性;出苗-拔节期和拔节-抽雄期发生春玉米涝渍灾害的风险相对较低,抽雄-成熟期为春玉米涝渍灾害的高风险时期,高风险区域主要位于湖北省恩施市、宜昌市西南部、荆州市西南部以及湖南省张家界市北部。