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51.
Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV. 相似文献
52.
一种以能量平衡为基础的干旱指数 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
本文以能量平衡公式为基础,根据实际蒸发与潜在蒸发的关系依赖于土壤水分含量的事实,导出一种表达干湿状况的指标——土壤水分干旱指数。 相似文献
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生态城市建设土地利用评价——以扬州市为例 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
本文从土地资源禀赋、土地利用效益、土地保护水平三个方面,初步建立了生态城市建设土地利用评价指标体系,并以扬州市为研究案例,得出扬州市2000~2008年的土地利用与保护综合水平。研究结果表明:2000年,扬州市土地利用与保护综合评价分值为52.9,处于生态恢复阶段中的治理小于破坏阶段;自2000~2008年扬州市土地利用与保护综合水平随时间呈递增趋势,特别是2004年以来递增速度明显加快,到2008年扬州市土地利用与保护综合分值为74.7,处于生态恢复阶段的末期,即将跨入生态保育阶段。最后,根据评价结论,提出了今后一段时期扬州生态城市建设土地利用与保护的建议。 相似文献
57.
Whether or not actual shifts in climate influence public perceptions of climate change remains an open question, one with important implications for societal response to climate change. We use the most comprehensive public opinion survey data on climate change available for the US to examine effects of annual and seasonal climate variation. Our results show that political orientation has the most important effect in shaping public perceptions about the timing and seriousness of climate change. Objective climatic conditions do not influence Americans’ perceptions of the timing of climate change and only have a negligible effect on perceptions about the seriousness of climate change. These results suggest that further changes in climatic conditions are unlikely to produce noticeable shifts in Americans’ climate change perceptions. 相似文献
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Studies of Recent ostracodes around the area of South America shed little light on the paleoenvironmental interpretation of Miocene assemblages. Consequently, interpretations of the Miocene ostracode assemblages must be supplemented using evidence from better documented taxa. Benthic foraminifera in samples from the Lower to Middle Miocene Brasso Formation at Brasso Village, Trinidad, have previously been used to distinguish three sample groupings (Beneath, Within and Above) around an oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), this being a layer of water within which dissolved oxygen concentrations can be as low as 0.1–1.0 mL/L. Using these same samples and the foraminiferal assemblage demarcations relative to the OMZ, this paper examines the associated and rich ostracode fauna of the Brasso Formation.The mean recovery of ostracode valves per sample was approximately three times greater in the Within OMZ sample group than in either of the Beneath OMZ or Above OMZ groups, perhaps reflecting the exclusion of macro-predators from within the OMZ. Individual rarefaction of species richness S to N = 300 valves was conducted for each sample group. This showed that S did not differ between the sample groups, ranging from 22.4 to 24.8. We used all ostracode species to model group separation. Based upon the Mahalanobis’ criterion, we obtained significant group separation using a model with four taxa: Munseyella ex gr. minuta, Argilloecia posterotruncata, Munseyella sp. and Xestoleberis sp., while a fifth, Argilloecia spp., provided a significant but minor increase in separation probabilities over all groups. The two most abundant species (Bradleya sp., Gangamocytheridea reticulata) were thus not the best species for detecting the OMZ. Platycopid ostracodes of the genus Cytherella were found throughout the section, rather than concentrated within the OMZ, which contradicts the Platycopid Signal Hypothesis that OMZs are characterized by platycopid dominance. The total distribution and turnover of both ostracodal and foraminiferal assemblages were compared and contrasted quantitatively using a total assemblage turnover index (ATI) and the paleoenvironmental importance evaluated. The correlated between-sample ATI is for both groups lowest within the OMZ. 相似文献
59.
网络搜索体现了人们对某种事物或现象的现实关注与潜在需求情况,是游客潜在出游行为的一种前兆。对民宿网络关注时空分布特征的研究,可以明确我国民宿需求的时空分布规律,为优化我国民宿行业发展空间布局提供理论参考。基于2015—2019年中国大陆31个省域空间单元的民宿网络搜索数据,使用赫芬达尔指数、季节性集中指数、周内分布偏度指数、地理集中指数、变差系数、首位度等指标,对中国民宿网络关注度的时空分布特征进行分析。研究发现:(1)中国民宿网络关注度在2015—2019年呈现明显的波动趋势,季节性分布差异明显,网络关注度在假日前期会出现显“前兆”效应;(2)中国民宿网络关注度存在地域不均衡性,空间分布上呈现“东部-中部-西部”依次递减的整体趋势,2015—2019年民宿网络关注度的区域集聚程度在降低,区域间差异在缩小;(3)气候的舒适性和闲暇时间是影响民宿网络关注度时间分布的主要因素,客源地的经济发展水平、居民购买力、人口规模、互联网发达程度、受教育程度和民宿业发展水平均会对民宿网络关注度的空间分布产生影响。 相似文献
60.
如何通过定量计算选择最佳波段组合一直是TM等多波段遥感影像信息提取的研究热点。本文综合利用Erdas提供的可视化空间建模工具( Spatial Modeler )和面向对象的编程技术,提出了一种基于最佳指数( Opti-mum Index Factor ,OIF)的定量计算与定性分析相结合的TM遥感影像最佳波段组合方法。实验证明,该方法快速有效,极大提升了TM等多波段遥感影像最佳波段组合的计算过程。 相似文献